CYPRUS 1. DIVISION
03.05.2026 14:00
GSP Stadium
Referee: E. Malcevs
Apoel Nicosia
Match Timeline
AEK Larnaca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
Konstantinos Laifis
Apoel Nicosia
🔄
61'
A. Cardero ↔ D. Ivanovic
AEK Larnaca
🟨
64'
Vitor Meer
Apoel Nicosia
🔄
67'
D. Mancini ↔ Gabriel Maioli
Apoel Nicosia
🔄
67'
P. Olayinka ↔ N. Koutsakos
Apoel Nicosia
67'
Diego Rosa
Apoel Nicosia
🟨
74'
Diego Rosa
Apoel Nicosia
🔄
74'
G. Ekpolo ↔ G. Naoum
AEK Larnaca
🔄
74'
Ledes Gustavo ↔ M. Rohden
AEK Larnaca
🔄
77'
Diego Rosa ↔ E. Antoniou
Apoel Nicosia
🔄
80'
R. Mudrazija ↔ Mathias Gonzalez
AEK Larnaca
🔄
80'
P. Pons ↔ C. Kyriakou
AEK Larnaca
🟨
81'
Ángel García
AEK Larnaca
🔄
87'
M. Tomas ↔ C. Poursaitidis
Apoel Nicosia
🟨
90+3'
Gabriel Pereira
Apoel Nicosia
🟨
90+1'
Constantinos Poursaitides
Apoel Nicosia

Apoel Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 47.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
47.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
80.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Apoel Nicosia Win 39.1%
Draw 14%
AEK Larnaca Win 47%
Expected Goals (xG)
Apoel Nicosia1.36
AEK Larnaca1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Apoel Nicosia Apoel Nicosia
WWDLW
52 GF / 37 GA
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca
WLDWL
72 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.53
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
0.87
17
BTTS Yes
23
17
Over 2.5
20
3.04
Shots on Goal
1.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Apoel Nicosia Apoel Nicosia 31 matches
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca 47 matches
Apoel Nicosia Statistic AEK Larnaca
14 Wins 24
7 Draws 12
10 Losses 11
52 Goals For 72
37 Goals Against 41
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 0.87
17 BTTS Yes 23
27 Over 1.5 34
17 Over 2.5 20
9 Over 3.5 9
9 Clean Sheets 18
6 Failed To Score 9
3.04 Shots On Goal 1.48
8.11 Total Shots 4.25
3.61 Corners 1.64
35.6% Ball Possession 19.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring AEK Larnaca. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Apoel Nicosia have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Apoel Nicosia Analysis

Apoel Nicosia approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 49 points from 31 matches. Their record of 14 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 52:37, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through S. Drazic (11 goals), Nikolas Koutsakos (7 goals), P. Sotiriou (7 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

AEK Larnaca Analysis

AEK Larnaca come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 61 points from 31 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 18 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, while the 54:26 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Hrvoje Miličević (10 goals), Riad Bajić (9 goals), Enzo Cabrera (8 goals), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Apoel Nicosia won 4 times, AEK Larnaca won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:19 from Apoel Nicosia's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.1%)
Predicted formations: Apoel Nicosia 4-2-3-1 / AEK Larnaca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Apoel Nicosia wins 4, draws 4, AEK Larnaca wins 7

Standings

1-division: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 19 4 3 63:17 46 61
W W D L W
2 26 16 5 5 49:22 27 53
W W D L L
3 26 16 5 5 36:22 14 53
D W D W W
4 26 16 3 7 53:24 29 51
W W D D W
5 26 13 6 7 45:27 18 45
W L W W L
6 26 12 7 7 48:26 22 43
L W D D D
7 26 10 4 12 23:31 -8 34
W L W W D
8 26 10 3 13 31:38 -7 33
L L L W L
9 26 7 11 8 23:33 -10 32
D W W D D
10 26 8 4 14 26:36 -10 28
W L W D D
11 26 6 10 10 22:37 -15 28
L W D L D
12 26 7 5 14 23:48 -25 26
L L L W D
13 26 7 2 17 25:44 -19 23
L L L L W
14 26 0 1 25 5:67 -62 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)
Cyprus League (Relegation Group)