BRAZIL › SERIE D
09.05.2026 19:00
Aparecidense
Match Timeline
Brasiliense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
Marlone
Brasiliense
⚽
25'
Carlos Baje
Aparecidense
⚽
38'
Carlos Baje
Aparecidense

Aparecidense vs Brasiliense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 35.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
35.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
35%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Aparecidense Win 33.3%
Draw 31.6%
Brasiliense Win 35.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aparecidense1.08
Brasiliense0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aparecidense Aparecidense
WWDLW
7 GF / 6 GA
Brasiliense Brasiliense
WLDWL
4 GF / 3 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
0.8
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
0.6
3
BTTS Yes
3
2
Over 2.5
0
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aparecidense Aparecidense 5 matches
Brasiliense Brasiliense 5 matches
Aparecidense Statistic Brasiliense
2 Wins 1
1 Draws 4
2 Losses 0
7 Goals For 4
6 Goals Against 3
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 0.8
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.6
3 BTTS Yes 3
4 Over 1.5 3
2 Over 2.5 0
2 Over 3.5 0
0 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Brasiliense. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Brasiliense having the stronger overall control.

Aparecidense Analysis

Aparecidense come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 7 points from 5 matches. The record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 7:6 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ivan Junior (2 goals), Luan (2 goals), Carlos Baje (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Brasiliense Analysis

Brasiliense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 7 points after 5 matches. The record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 4:3 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Aparecidense won 3 times, Brasiliense won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:3 from Aparecidense's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (68.4%)
H2H summary: Aparecidense wins 3, draws 1, Brasiliense wins 0

Standings

Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)