BRAZIL SERIE C
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Etelvino Mendonca
Referee: W. Oliveira
AO Itabaiana
Match Timeline
Caxias
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
Breno Santos
Caxias
🟨
34'
Victor Sa
Caxias
🔄
46'
Renatinho ↔ Everton Kanela
AO Itabaiana
🔄
46'
Tito ↔ Julio Henrique
AO Itabaiana
🔄
46'
Calyson ↔ Dentinho
Caxias
48'
Joao Lucas
Caxias
🔄
53'
Victor Sa ↔ Vitor Gabriel
Caxias
🔄
64'
Mancha ↔ Mauricio Ribeiro
Caxias
🟨
66'
Gustavo Fagundes
AO Itabaiana
🔄
67'
Cleiton ↔ Luan Silva
AO Itabaiana
🟨
69'
Vitor Gabriel
Caxias
🔄
77'
Fabricio Moura ↔ Dyego
AO Itabaiana
🔄
77'
Leilson ↔ Valdenilson
AO Itabaiana
🔄
80'
Joao Lucas ↔ Andre
Caxias
🔄
80'
Marcelo Freitas ↔ Felipe Rangel
Caxias

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 61.4%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
61.4%
-
BTTS No
55%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
AO Itabaiana Win 38.6%
Draw 19.8%
Caxias Win 41.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
AO Itabaiana0.84
Caxias1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
AO Itabaiana AO Itabaiana
WWDLW
13 GF / 18 GA
Caxias Caxias
WLDWL
14 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
0.87
Average Goals Scored
0.93
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
0.8
6
BTTS Yes
8
4
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AO Itabaiana AO Itabaiana 15 matches
Caxias Caxias 15 matches
AO Itabaiana Statistic Caxias
4 Wins 5
5 Draws 6
6 Losses 4
13 Goals For 14
18 Goals Against 12
0.87 Avg Goals Scored 0.93
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.8
6 BTTS Yes 8
8 Over 1.5 9
4 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 0
6 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Caxias's more proactive style and AO Itabaiana's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Caxias. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Caxias having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

AO Itabaiana Analysis

AO Itabaiana approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 17 points from 15 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats with a 13:18 goal balance points toward good form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Caxias Analysis

Caxias sit 10 with 21 points after 15 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, while the 14:12 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, AO Itabaiana won 1 times, Caxias won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from AO Itabaiana's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.2%)
H2H summary: AO Itabaiana wins 1, draws 0, Caxias wins 1

Lineups

AO Itabaiana
Formation
Caxias
Jefferson
Jefferson
Ricardo Cerqueira
Ricardo Cerqueira
Gustavo Fagundes
Gustavo Fagundes
Ligger
Ligger
Gustavo Crecci
Gustavo Crecci
Tito
Tito
Fabricio Moura
Fabricio Moura
Renatinho
Renatinho
Leilson
Leilson
Cleiton
Cleiton
Rodrigo Alves
Rodrigo Alves
G. Busatto
G. Busatto
Felipe Albuquerque
Felipe Albuquerque
Ianson
Ianson
Mancha
Mancha
Victor Sa
Victor Sa
Breno Santos
Breno Santos
Marcelo Freitas
Marcelo Freitas
Joao Lucas
Joao Lucas
Calyson
Calyson
Jhonatan Ribeiro
Jhonatan Ribeiro
Quirino
Quirino
AO Itabaiana 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
Jefferson
2
Ricardo Cerqueira
3
Gustavo Fagundes
🟨 66'
4
Ligger
5
Gustavo Crecci
6
Tito
↓ 46'
17
Fabricio Moura
↓ 77'
11
Renatinho
↓ 46'
7
Leilson
↓ 77'
9
Cleiton
↓ 67'
10
Rodrigo Alves
Substitutes
12
Geaze
8
Dyego
↑ 77'
13
Lucao
14
Gustavo Cintra
15
Isaque
16
Dudu
18
Elimar
19
Everton Kanela
↑ 46'
20
Valdenilson
↑ 77'
21
Caio Felipe
22
Luan Silva
↑ 67'
23
Julio Henrique
↑ 46'
Caxias 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
G. Busatto
2
Felipe Albuquerque
3
Ianson
4
Mancha
↓ 64'
6
Victor Sa
↓ 53' 🟨 34'
5
Breno Santos
⚽ 4'
8
Marcelo Freitas
↓ 80'
10
Joao Lucas
⚽ 48' ↓ 80'
7
Calyson
↓ 46'
19
Jhonatan Ribeiro
9
Quirino
Substitutes
12
Gabriel Toebe
13
Windson
14
Mauricio Ribeiro
↑ 64'
15
Grigor
16
Andre
↑ 80'
17
Gaspar
18
Vitor Gabriel
↑ 53' 🟨 69'
11
Vitor Feijao
20
Felipe Rangel
↑ 80'
21
Dentinho
↑ 46'
22
Matheus Nunes
Last matches: AO Itabaiana
23.08.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Maranhão
1
4
L
16.08.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Barra
0
1
L
25.07.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Confiança
1
1
D
13.07.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Brusque
1
0
W
07.07.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Amazonas
2
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ferroviária
1
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Anápolis
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Inter De Limeira
0
0
D
16.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Figueirense
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Floresta
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Maringá
2
4
L
25.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Paysandu
1
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Guarani Campinas
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ypiranga-RS
1
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Santa Cruz
0
1
L
Last matches: Caxias
22.08.26
Ser
Caxias
Santa Cruz
0
2
L
16.08.26
Ser
Caxias
Figueirense
1
2
L
26.07.26
Ser
Caxias
Botafogo PB
1
2
L
11.07.26
Ser
Caxias
Floresta
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Caxias
Ferroviária
1
0
W
30.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Anápolis
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Maringá
1
1
D
13.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Guarani Campinas
1
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Ituano
2
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Maranhão
0
0
D
17.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Paysandu
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Barra
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Amazonas
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Ypiranga-RS
2
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Confiança
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Brusque
1
2
L
H2H: AO Itabaiana vs Caxias
09.08.26
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Caxias
0
2
L
24.05.25
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Caxias
2
1
W
Last matches: AO Itabaiana
13.07.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Brusque
1
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ferroviária
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ituano
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Floresta
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Paysandu
1
4
L
12.04.26
Ser
AO Itabaiana
Ypiranga-RS
1
2
L
H2H at home: AO Itabaiana
09.08.26
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Caxias
0
2
L
24.05.25
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Caxias
2
1
W
Last matches: Caxias
22.08.26
Ser
Caxias
Santa Cruz
0
2
L
04.07.26
Ser
Caxias
Ferroviária
1
0
W
13.06.26
Ser
Caxias
Guarani Campinas
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Maranhão
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Barra
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Caxias
Amazonas
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Volta Redonda
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Caxias
Brusque
1
2
L
H2H away: Caxias
09.08.26
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Caxias
0
2
W
24.05.25
H2H
AO Itabaiana
Caxias
2
1
L

Standings

Serie C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 9 4 5 26:20 6 31
D W L W L
2 18 9 3 6 26:19 7 30
W D D W W
3 18 9 2 7 26:26 0 29
W L W L W
4 18 8 5 5 22:20 2 29
D L W L W
5 18 8 4 6 19:14 5 28
W L D L W
6 18 8 4 6 25:22 3 28
W D W W L
7 18 7 6 5 32:22 10 27
L D L W L
8 18 7 6 5 21:15 6 27
L W D D W
9 18 7 6 5 18:16 2 27
W W W D W
10 18 7 6 5 31:30 1 27
W D L D W
11 18 7 6 5 20:20 0 27
W W L D D
12 18 7 4 7 19:21 -2 25
D D W W L
13 18 6 7 5 17:21 -4 25
D W D W D
14 18 6 6 6 17:16 1 24
L L W L D
15 18 6 4 8 18:19 -1 22
L L W L L
16 18 6 3 9 13:23 -10 21
L W L L D
17 18 5 3 10 16:21 -5 18
W L W W L
18 18 4 6 8 19:21 -2 18
L W L L L
19 18 4 5 9 14:25 -11 17
L L L D W
20 18 3 4 11 11:19 -8 13
L D L D L
Play-offs
Relegation