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BRAZIL › SERIE C
09.08.2026 21:30
Estadio Etelvino Mendonca
Referee: W. Oliveira
AO Itabaiana
Match Timeline
Caxias
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
4'
Breno Santos
Caxias
🟨
34'
Victor Sa
Caxias
🔄
46'
Renatinho ↔ Everton Kanela
AO Itabaiana
🔄
46'
Tito ↔ Julio Henrique
AO Itabaiana
🔄
46'
Calyson ↔ Dentinho
Caxias
⚽
48'
Joao Lucas
Caxias
🔄
53'
Victor Sa ↔ Vitor Gabriel
Caxias
🔄
64'
Mancha ↔ Mauricio Ribeiro
Caxias
🟨
66'
Gustavo Fagundes
AO Itabaiana
🔄
67'
Cleiton ↔ Luan Silva
AO Itabaiana
🟨
69'
Vitor Gabriel
Caxias
🔄
77'
Fabricio Moura ↔ Dyego
AO Itabaiana
🔄
77'
Leilson ↔ Valdenilson
AO Itabaiana
🔄
80'
Joao Lucas ↔ Andre
Caxias
🔄
80'
Marcelo Freitas ↔ Felipe Rangel
Caxias

AO Itabaiana vs Caxias Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 61.4%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
61.4%
- ▥
BTTS No
55%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
AO Itabaiana Win 38.6%
Draw 19.8%
Caxias Win 41.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
AO Itabaiana0.84
Caxias1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
AO Itabaiana AO Itabaiana
WWDLW
13 GF / 18 GA
Caxias Caxias
WLDWL
14 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
0.87
Average Goals Scored
0.93
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
0.8
6
BTTS Yes
8
4
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AO Itabaiana AO Itabaiana 15 matches
Caxias Caxias 15 matches
AO Itabaiana Statistic Caxias
4 Wins 5
5 Draws 6
6 Losses 4
13 Goals For 14
18 Goals Against 12
0.87 Avg Goals Scored 0.93
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.8
6 BTTS Yes 8
8 Over 1.5 9
4 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 0
6 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Caxias's more proactive style and AO Itabaiana's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Caxias. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Caxias having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

AO Itabaiana Analysis

AO Itabaiana approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 17 points from 15 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats with a 13:18 goal balance points toward good form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Caxias Analysis

Caxias sit 10 with 21 points after 15 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, while the 14:12 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, AO Itabaiana won 1 times, Caxias won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:3 from AO Itabaiana's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.2%)
H2H summary: AO Itabaiana wins 1, draws 0, Caxias wins 1

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
W D D L L
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D D D L D
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W L D W W
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
W D D W L
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
L D D L W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
L D W D D
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
D W L D L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
L D D W W
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation