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24.10.2026 19:00

Almeria vs Oviedo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Almeria Win 72.3%
Draw 3.6%
Oviedo Win 24.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Almeria1.45
Oviedo1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Almeria Almeria
WWDLW
27 GF / 10 GA
Oviedo Oviedo
WLDWL
21 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.8
Average Goals Scored
1.4
0.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
3
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
8
4.6
Shots on Goal
4.9

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Almeria Almeria 15 matches
Oviedo Oviedo 15 matches
Almeria Statistic Oviedo
11 Wins 7
0 Draws 4
4 Losses 4
27 Goals For 21
10 Goals Against 14
1.8 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
3 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 9
6 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 5
4.6 Shots On Goal 4.9
13.2 Total Shots 15
4.2 Corners 5.5
55.1% Ball Possession 48.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Oviedo. Almeria arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 21 points compared to Oviedo in 9 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Almeria come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Almeria Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 21 points from 9 games, Almeria bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 16:5, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Miguel de la Fuente (5 goals), B. Cipenga (2 goals), Javi Muñoz (2 goals), with creative support from B. Cipenga (4 assists), Javi Muñoz (2 assists), Miguel de la Fuente (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Oviedo Analysis

Oviedo are currently 9 in the standings with 14 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 11:9 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Carlos Domínguez (3 goals), Alberto Reina (2 goals), Enzo Perez (1 goals), with creative support from Enzo Perez (2 assists), Mikel Goti (1 assists), Aritz Aldasoro (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Almeria won 5 times, Oviedo won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:18 from Almeria's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Almeria 4-2-3-1 / Oviedo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Almeria wins 5, draws 5, Oviedo wins 5

Standings

Segunda
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 0 2 20:7 13 24
W W W W W
2 10 7 2 1 18:4 14 23
W L D W W
3 10 7 1 2 20:11 9 22
D L W W W
4 10 6 1 3 11:9 2 19
W W W L W
5 10 5 3 2 17:9 8 18
W D D W W
6 10 5 3 2 12:5 7 18
D W D L W
7 10 5 2 3 16:13 3 17
W W W L L
8 10 5 2 3 13:10 3 17
W L L W W
9 10 5 2 3 13:10 3 17
W W L W L
10 10 4 4 2 10:8 2 16
L W D D W
11 10 4 2 4 13:13 0 14
W W W L L
12 10 3 3 4 15:14 1 12
L W D W D
13 9 3 3 3 11:13 -2 12
D L D L W
14 10 4 0 6 15:20 -5 12
W L W L W
15 9 3 2 4 14:15 -1 11
W L D L L
16 10 3 2 5 13:19 -6 11
L L D L L
17 10 3 2 5 6:15 -9 11
L L L L W
18 10 3 1 6 13:17 -4 10
L W D W L
19 10 2 2 6 14:21 -7 8
L L L L L
20 10 1 4 5 11:13 -2 7
L L W D L
21 10 1 2 7 9:22 -13 5
L L D W D
22 10 0 1 9 6:22 -16 1
L L L L L
Promotion - LaLiga
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation