COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
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Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.8%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.28
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.8%
1.36
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.28
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Alianza Valledupar Win 41.8%
Draw 9.2%
Deportes Tolima Win 49.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Valledupar0.78
Deportes Tolima1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar
WWDLW
15 GF / 29 GA
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WLDWL
43 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
0.71
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
10
BTTS Yes
12
6
Over 2.5
12
2.75
Shots on Goal
4.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar 21 matches
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 34 matches
Alianza Valledupar Statistic Deportes Tolima
3 Wins 15
10 Draws 9
8 Losses 10
15 Goals For 43
29 Goals Against 30
0.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
10 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 22
6 Over 2.5 12
3 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 15
9 Failed To Score 11
2.75 Shots On Goal 4.44
10.95 Total Shots 12.15
4.4 Corners 4.56
46.1% Ball Possession 55.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Deportes Tolima's more proactive style and Alianza Valledupar's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportes Tolima. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Deportes Tolima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 37 points while Alianza Valledupar sit 17 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Alianza Valledupar Analysis

Alianza Valledupar approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 17 points from 19 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats with a 13:27 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

Deportes Tolima come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 37 points from 23 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, while the 31:21 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Valledupar won 1 times, Deportes Tolima won 12 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:31 from Alianza Valledupar's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.8%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Valledupar 4-2-3-1 / Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Alianza Valledupar wins 1, draws 2, Deportes Tolima wins 12
Last matches: Alianza Valledupar
26.07.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Fortaleza FC
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Millonarios
2
2
D
26.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Llaneros
0
0
D
19.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Independiente Medellin
0
1
L
13.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Internacional de Bogota
1
2
L
06.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Pereira
3
2
W
01.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Pasto
0
0
D
27.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Águilas Doradas
0
1
L
22.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Cali
1
0
W
19.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Jaguares
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Santa Fe
1
1
D
06.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Junior
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
America de Cali
0
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Atletico Nacional
0
3
L
17.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Cucuta
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Once Caldas
1
1
D
01.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Bucaramanga
0
5
L
28.01.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Chico
1
1
D
24.01.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
17.01.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Fortaleza FC
0
1
L
Last matches: Deportes Tolima
26.07.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Junior
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
1
3
L
19.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
0
3
L
16.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
0
1
L
13.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
1
0
W
07.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
3
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
29.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
3
0
W
24.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Millonarios
0
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pereira
2
0
W
14.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
1
3
L
11.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
L
08.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
0
0
D
05.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Santa Fe
2
2
D
01.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Águilas Doradas
4
1
W
28.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Jaguares
3
1
W
23.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Chico
1
1
D
19.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Fortaleza FC
2
0
W
H2H: Alianza Valledupar vs Deportes Tolima
24.01.26
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Valledupar
2
0
L
22.07.25
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
08.02.25
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Valledupar
3
1
L
20.10.24
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Valledupar
2
0
L
29.03.24
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
23.10.23
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
17.08.23
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Valledupar
2
0
L
26.07.23
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
2
0
W
06.05.23
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Valledupar
2
1
L
13.10.22
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Valledupar
2
0
L
25.04.22
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
17.12.21
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Valledupar
2
2
D
29.11.21
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
1
4
L
31.07.21
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
25.02.21
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
5
L
Last matches: Alianza Valledupar
26.07.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Fortaleza FC
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Millonarios
2
2
D
19.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Independiente Medellin
0
1
L
01.04.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Pasto
0
0
D
22.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Cali
1
0
W
19.03.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Jaguares
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
America de Cali
0
3
L
17.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Cucuta
1
1
D
08.02.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Once Caldas
1
1
D
28.01.26
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Chico
1
1
D
11.01.26
Fri
Alianza Valledupar
Union Magdalena
1
1
D
09.11.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Chico
2
0
W
24.10.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Internacional de Bogota
2
0
W
12.10.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Junior
0
1
L
27.09.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Llaneros
3
1
W
13.09.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Millonarios
3
0
W
31.08.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
America de Cali
1
0
W
15.08.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Once Caldas
0
0
D
03.08.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Bucaramanga
1
3
L
22.07.25
Pri
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
H2H at home: Alianza Valledupar
22.07.25
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
29.03.24
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
23.10.23
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
26.07.23
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
2
0
W
25.04.22
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
29.11.21
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
1
4
L
25.02.21
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
5
L
Last matches: Deportes Tolima
27.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
1
3
L
19.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
0
3
L
13.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
2
0
W
24.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Millonarios
0
2
L
14.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
1
3
L
11.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
L
23.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Chico
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
America de Cali
1
1
D
05.03.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
O'Higgins
0
1
L
23.02.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Cucuta
2
3
L
20.02.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Tachira FC
1
0
W
11.02.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Bucaramanga
0
0
D
02.02.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Internacional de Bogota
0
0
D
28.01.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
2
2
D
18.01.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Junior
2
0
W
13.12.25
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Junior
0
3
L
04.12.25
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Bucaramanga
0
0
D
26.11.25
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Santa Fe
2
1
W
18.11.25
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Fortaleza FC
1
0
W
H2H away: Deportes Tolima
22.07.25
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
1
W
29.03.24
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
2
W
23.10.23
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
1
W
26.07.23
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
2
0
L
25.04.22
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
2
W
29.11.21
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
1
4
W
25.02.21
H2H
Alianza Valledupar
Deportes Tolima
0
5
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.91
Draw 3.07
Home 2.54
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.39
Over 1.75 1.50
Over 2.0 1.67
Over 2.25 1.98
Over 2.5 2.28
Over 2.75 2.66
Over 3.5 4.15
Under 1.5 2.90
Under 1.75 2.55
Under 2.0 2.17
Under 2.25 1.81
Under 2.5 1.62
Under 2.75 1.46
Under 3.5 1.22
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 3.10
Home 2.55
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.05
Home 3.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.30
Home 3.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 2.5 2.25
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 9.00
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 2.75
Under 2.5 1.62
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.81
Draw 3.05
Home 2.53
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.56
Draw 1.92
Home 3.24
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.18
Draw 2.24
Home 2.86
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 0.75 1.04
Over 1.0 1.06
Over 1.25 1.21
Over 1.5 1.35
Over 1.75 1.47
Over 2.0 1.63
Over 2.25 1.96
Over 2.5 2.25
Over 2.75 2.55
Over 3.0 3.32
Over 3.25 3.62
Over 3.5 4.05
Over 3.75 5.20
Over 4.0 7.70
Over 4.25 8.05
Over 4.5 8.50
Over 5.5 16.50
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 7.70
Under 0.75 6.94
Under 1.0 6.20
Under 1.25 3.58
Under 1.5 2.74
Under 1.75 2.42
Under 2.0 2.08
Under 2.25 1.80
Under 2.5 1.61
Under 2.75 1.42
Under 3.0 1.26
Under 3.25 1.20
Under 3.5 1.16
Under 3.75 1.10
Under 4.0 1.03
Under 4.25 1.02
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.60
Draw 3.20
Home 2.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 2.00
Home 3.30
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.33
Home 3.05
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.0 1.10
Over 1.25 1.24
Over 1.5 1.38
Over 1.75 1.49
Over 2.0 1.66
Over 2.25 1.93
Over 2.5 2.20
Over 2.75 2.60
Over 3.0 3.30
Over 3.25 3.65
Over 3.5 3.95
Over 3.75 4.90
Over 4.0 7.00
Under 0.5 6.50
Under 1.0 5.60
Under 1.25 3.50
Under 1.5 2.70
Under 1.75 2.38
Under 2.0 2.05
Under 2.25 1.74
Under 2.5 1.57
Under 2.75 1.42
Under 3.0 1.27
Under 3.25 1.23
Under 3.5 1.19
Under 3.75 1.13
Under 4.0 1.06

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W L W W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L W W D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
L L L L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W L D W L
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W D L W D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
W L L W W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
L L D W D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L L L L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D W L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
L D W L D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W L W W W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W W D L L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W L D L W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
W L D L D
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D W L L W
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L W D L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D D D L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W L L W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L L D L W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L W L D
Post season qualification