18.09.2026 20:00
Estadio Campeones del 36

Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Alianza Atletico Win 68%
Draw 4.3%
Comerciantes Unidos Win 27.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Alianza Atletico1.39
Comerciantes Unidos1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico
WWDLW
38 GF / 37 GA
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos
WLDWL
35 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.37
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
17
BTTS Yes
17
15
Over 2.5
13
4.88
Shots on Goal
4.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 27 matches
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 28 matches
Alianza Atletico Statistic Comerciantes Unidos
10 Wins 7
7 Draws 10
10 Losses 11
38 Goals For 35
37 Goals Against 38
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.37 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
17 BTTS Yes 17
20 Over 1.5 18
15 Over 2.5 13
11 Over 3.5 11
6 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 8
4.88 Shots On Goal 4.42
13.88 Total Shots 13.15
3.38 Corners 3.5
45.5% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Alianza Atletico's more proactive style and Comerciantes Unidos's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Alianza Atletico expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Comerciantes Unidos in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Comerciantes Unidos having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Alianza Atletico come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Comerciantes Unidos.

Alianza Atletico Analysis

From their first 25 matches, Alianza Atletico have collected 37 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 37:31 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through C. Penilla (6 goals), A. Muñoz (3 goals), J. del Castillo (3 goals), with creative support from C. Penilla (3 assists), G. Larios (3 assists), H. Lupú (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Comerciantes Unidos Analysis

Comerciantes Unidos are currently 11 in the standings with 30 points from 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses, while the 34:35 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Sen (5 goals), Rodrigo Gary Vilca Betetta (3 goals), Josuee Herrera (2 goals), with creative support from Rodrigo Gary Vilca Betetta (4 assists), Josuee Herrera (3 assists), J. Olivares (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Alianza Atletico won 7 times, Comerciantes Unidos won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:21 from Alianza Atletico's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: Alianza Atletico 4-4-2 / Comerciantes Unidos 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Alianza Atletico wins 7, draws 1, Comerciantes Unidos wins 6

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2