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ENGLAND › NATIONAL LEAGUE
03.10.2026 14:00
EBB Stadium at Recreation Ground
Aldershot Town
Match Timeline
Carlisle
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
12'
D. Ajiboye · Assist: M. Azeez
Carlisle
⚽
28'
D. Ajiboye · Assist: J. Williams
Carlisle
🔄
32'
E. Oladunjoye ↔ T. Dyce
Aldershot Town
🔄
41'
B. Peart ↔ J. Matton
Aldershot Town
🟨
62'
J. Ellis
Carlisle
🔄
64'
M. Dinanga ↔ T. Abrahams
Aldershot Town
🔄
70'
T. Jenks ↔ S. Wearne
Carlisle
🔄
71'
D. Ajiboye ↔ M. Obiero
Carlisle
🟨
74'
B. Nicholson
Carlisle
🟨
76'
K. Oshilaja
Aldershot Town
🔄
84'
R. Linney ↔ C. Whelan
Carlisle
🔄
84'
J. Williams ↔ R. Galvin
Carlisle
🟨
87'
M. Stickland
Aldershot Town
⚽
89'
D. Odusanya
Aldershot Town
🔄
90'
J. Ellis ↔ T. Anderson
Carlisle
⚽
90'
M. Obiero · Assist: R. Galvin
Carlisle

Aldershot Town vs Carlisle Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 70.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
70.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Aldershot Town Win 49.8%
Draw 20.4%
Carlisle Win 29.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aldershot Town1.57
Carlisle1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aldershot Town Aldershot Town
WWDLW
29 GF / 15 GA
Carlisle Carlisle
WLDWL
27 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.93
0.79
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
10
BTTS Yes
10
7
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aldershot Town Aldershot Town 19 matches
Carlisle Carlisle 14 matches
Aldershot Town Statistic Carlisle
11 Wins 5
4 Draws 4
4 Losses 5
29 Goals For 27
15 Goals Against 23
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.93
0.79 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
10 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Carlisle having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Carlisle. Aldershot Town arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 15 points compared to Carlisle in 16 on 10, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Aldershot Town Analysis

Aldershot Town sit 8 with 15 points after 9 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 10:7 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Carlisle Analysis

Carlisle approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 10 points from 9 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 16:14, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Aldershot Town won 1 times, Carlisle won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:4 from Aldershot Town's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.6%)
H2H summary: Aldershot Town wins 1, draws 0, Carlisle wins 2

Standings

Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 11 2 0 34:13 21 35
W W W W W
2 13 9 1 3 29:17 12 28
W W W W L
3 13 8 3 2 31:19 12 27
W W D L W
4 13 7 4 2 32:15 17 25
W W D W W
5 13 7 3 3 27:18 9 24
W W D W W
6 13 8 0 5 20:19 1 24
W L W W W
7 13 7 2 4 24:18 6 23
W L L W L
8 13 6 3 4 22:16 6 21
W W W W W
9 13 7 0 6 15:19 -4 21
W L W L W
10 13 6 2 5 22:15 7 20
W W D L D
11 13 5 5 3 15:12 3 20
D D L L D
12 13 5 3 5 18:16 2 18
L L L W L
13 13 5 3 5 14:18 -4 18
L D L D D
14 13 4 5 4 23:20 3 17
D W W L L
15 13 4 3 6 20:20 0 15
L W L W D
16 12 4 3 5 19:22 -3 15
L D D L D
17 13 4 3 6 14:20 -6 15
L L D L W
18 13 4 2 7 21:30 -9 14
L W W L W
19 13 3 3 7 17:24 -7 12
L L D W L
20 13 4 0 9 12:19 -7 12
W L L L L
21 13 3 3 7 15:23 -8 12
L L D L W
22 12 3 1 8 15:21 -6 10
L L W L L
23 13 2 1 10 13:35 -22 7
L L W L L
24 13 1 1 11 8:31 -23 4
L L L L L
Promotion - League Two
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation