NETHERLANDS › EREDIVISIE

19.09.2026 18:00

Ajax

2 - 2

Excelsior

Johan Cruijff Arena

Referee: Jannick van der Laan, Netherlands

Ajax

Match Timeline

Excelsior

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

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Ajax vs Excelsior Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Away Win

Probability 57.7%

Odds -

BTTS

Yes

Probability 82.5%

Odds -

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 88%

Odds -

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Away Win	57.7%	-	▥
BTTS	Yes	82.5%	-	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	88%	-	▥
Corners O/U	Over 7.5 Corners	92%	-	▥
HT / FT	Draw / Away	-	-	▥
Correct Score	1-2	-	-	▥

Probability Distribution

Ajax Win 39.1%

Draw 3.2%

Excelsior Win 57.7%

Expected Goals (xG)

Ajax2.11

Excelsior2.19

Recent Form (Last 5)

Ajax

WWDLW

56 GF / 26 GA

Excelsior

WLDWL

31 GF / 14 GA

Key Stats

2.67

Average Goals Scored

2.82

1.24

Average Goals Conceded

1.27

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

9.17

Shots on Goal

5.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ajax 21 matches

Excelsior 11 matches

Ajax	Statistic	Excelsior
14	Wins	8
4	Draws	1
3	Losses	2
56	Goals For	31
26	Goals Against	14
2.67	Avg Goals Scored	2.82
1.24	Avg Goals Conceded	1.27
15	BTTS Yes	8
18	Over 1.5	11
16	Over 2.5	10
15	Over 3.5	6
5	Clean Sheets	3
1	Failed To Score	0
9.17	Shots On Goal	5.17
23.75	Total Shots	12.5
8.5	Corners	5
63.8%	Ball Possession	44.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ajax won 10 times, Excelsior won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 44:16 from Ajax's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win

BTTS: Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (96.8%)

Predicted formations: Ajax 4-3-3 / Excelsior 4-3-3

Missing players: Ajax 3, Excelsior 1

H2H summary: Ajax wins 10, draws 4, Excelsior wins 1

Standings

Eredivisie

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	27:7	20	20	W W W W D
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	26:10	16	19	W L W W W
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	18:8	10	19	L W D W W
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	16:8	8	17	D W W W D
5	Ajax Home	8	4	3	1	22:10	12	15	D D W W L
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	20:14	6	14	W W D D L
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	4	2	2	14:15	-1	14	D W L W W
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	2	5	1	19:17	2	11	D D D D L
9	Excelsior Away	8	3	2	3	16:14	2	11	L D L D W
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	11:11	0	9	L W D L D
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	13:14	-1	9	D D L D L
12	Cambuur	8	2	2	4	11:19	-8	8	W D W D L
13	Utrecht	8	2	2	4	14:25	-11	8	W L W D L
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	13:20	-7	6	D L L D L
15	Telstar	8	1	3	4	7:14	-7	6	D L D L D
16	PEC Zwolle	8	1	1	6	6:21	-15	4	L L L D L
17	ADO Den Haag	8	0	3	5	9:19	-10	3	D D L L D
18	Willem II	8	0	2	6	7:23	-16	2	L L L D L