26.09.2026 12:00
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad II Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.7%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.4%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
AD Ceuta FC Win 26.4%
Draw 15.9%
Real Sociedad II Win 57.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
AD Ceuta FC1.05
Real Sociedad II1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC
WWDLW
9 GF / 21 GA
Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II
WLDWL
13 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
0.9
Average Goals Scored
1.18
2.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
6
BTTS Yes
5
6
Over 2.5
5
2.83
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC 10 matches
Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II 11 matches
AD Ceuta FC Statistic Real Sociedad II
2 Wins 3
1 Draws 2
7 Losses 6
9 Goals For 13
21 Goals Against 14
0.9 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
2.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
6 BTTS Yes 5
9 Over 1.5 8
6 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 3
0 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 5
2.83 Shots On Goal 3.33
11.83 Total Shots 10.67
4.83 Corners 4
46.8% Ball Possession 40.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Real Sociedad II's more proactive style and AD Ceuta FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Real Sociedad II carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 8 points while AD Ceuta FC sit 22 on 0, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. AD Ceuta FC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Real Sociedad II.

AD Ceuta FC Analysis

With 0 points from 5 games and a place of 22, AD Ceuta FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 defeats with a 2:15 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Carlos Hernández (1 goals), Jordi Escobar (1 goals), with creative support from Kuki (1 assists), Kialy Abdoul Kone (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Real Sociedad II Analysis

Real Sociedad II sit 9 with 8 points after 5 league matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 8:6 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Gorka Gorosabel (2 goals), Dani Díaz (1 goals), Rupérez (1 goals), with creative support from Dani Díaz (2 assists), Gorka Gorosabel (1 assists), Rupérez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, AD Ceuta FC won 1 times, Real Sociedad II won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:1 from AD Ceuta FC's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.1%)
Predicted formations: AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3 / Real Sociedad II 4-3-3
H2H summary: AD Ceuta FC wins 1, draws 1, Real Sociedad II wins 0

Standings

Segunda
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 12:2 10 16
W W W W D
2 6 5 0 1 12:4 8 15
W W W W W
3 6 4 1 1 8:2 6 13
W W D W L
4 6 4 0 2 10:4 6 12
W W W L L
5 6 3 2 1 10:7 3 11
W W D D L
6 6 3 2 1 7:5 2 11
W L W W D
7 6 3 2 1 6:5 1 11
W L D W W
8 6 3 1 2 12:8 4 10
W L W W L
9 6 3 1 2 5:4 1 10
W L L W W
10 6 3 1 2 8:8 0 10
L W D L W
11 6 3 1 2 7:8 -1 10
L W D L W
12 6 2 2 2 8:7 1 8
L W D D W
13 6 2 2 2 5:4 1 8
L W D W L
14 6 2 2 2 8:8 0 8
L D L W W
15 6 2 1 3 7:10 -3 7
L L W L W
16 6 2 0 4 9:13 -4 6
W L L L W
17 6 1 2 3 4:8 -4 5
L W D L D
18 6 1 2 3 3:8 -5 5
D L W D L
19 6 0 3 3 6:9 -3 3
L L L D D
20 6 1 0 5 9:13 -4 3
L L L L L
21 6 0 1 5 4:10 -6 1
L D L L L
22 6 0 1 5 3:16 -13 1
D L L L L
Promotion - LaLiga
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation