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12.10.2026 15:00
Toumba Stadium
Referee: Alexandros Katsikogiannis
PAOK
Match Timeline
Kalamata
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
28'
K. Vargas
Kalamata
🟨
43'
Gonzalo Agustín Piñeiro
Kalamata
⚽
44'
C. Ndiaye
PAOK
🟨
45+3'
Panagiotis Christofileas
Kalamata
🔄
46'
G. Michailidis ↔ A. Elustondo
PAOK
🔄
46'
D. Chatsidis ↔ A. Zivkovic
PAOK
⚽
56'
K. Vargas · Assist: J. Alonso
Kalamata
🟨
60'
David Kurminowski
Kalamata
VAR
61'
Antonis Tsiftsis
PAOK
🟥
62'
Antonis Tsiftsis
PAOK
🔄
63'
D. Pelkas ↔ D. Monastirlis
PAOK
⚽
66'
D. Kurminowski · Assist: J. Alonso
Kalamata
🔄
73'
Rodrigues ↔ J. Bakayoko
Kalamata
🔄
74'
K. Jakic ↔ O. Ugresic
PAOK
🔄
74'
Taison ↔ S. Banza
PAOK
🔄
78'
D. Diarra ↔ J. Cataldi
Kalamata
🔄
84'
A. Mendes Moreira ↔ A. Liatsikouras
Kalamata
🔄
84'
D. Kurminowski ↔ J. Miranda
Kalamata
🔄
84'
E. Hamza ↔ A. Sigurdsson
Kalamata
🟨
89'
Aritz Elustondo
PAOK

PAOK vs Kalamata Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
71.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
PAOK Win 71.2%
Draw 4.8%
Kalamata Win 24%
Expected Goals (xG)
PAOK1.93
Kalamata1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
PAOK PAOK
W W L W L
10 GF / 8 GA
Kalamata Kalamata
L W D L L
6 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
2.33
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
10
BTTS Yes
3
11
Over 2.5
2
4.82
Shots on Goal
3.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

PAOK PAOK 15 matches
Kalamata Kalamata 6 matches
PAOK Statistic Kalamata
9 Wins 2
1 Draws 1
5 Losses 3
35 Goals For 8
21 Goals Against 8
2.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
10 BTTS Yes 3
14 Over 1.5 5
11 Over 2.5 2
10 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 2
4.82 Shots On Goal 3.8
12.73 Total Shots 11.6
4 Corners 3
52.1% Ball Possession 43.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by PAOK's more proactive style and Kalamata's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Kalamata. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. PAOK arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 12 points compared to Kalamata in 10 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. PAOK come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

PAOK Analysis

PAOK come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 12 points after 5 matches. They have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, with a 12:5 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on D. Pelkas (3 goals), A. Živković (2 goals), C. Ndiaye (2 goals), with creative support from A. Živković (2 assists), T. Ali (1 assists), O. Ugresić (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Kalamata Analysis

Kalamata sit 10 with 4 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 6:8 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on E. Hamza (2 goals), J. Bolívar (1 goals), with creative support from A. Mendes Moreira (2 assists), D. Diarra (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, PAOK won 2 times, Kalamata won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:0 from PAOK's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: PAOK 4-2-3-1 / Kalamata 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: PAOK wins 2, draws 0, Kalamata wins 0

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 7 0 1 18:4 14 21
W W L W W
2 8 6 1 1 12:2 10 19
W W W W L
3 7 5 2 0 21:3 18 17
W W W D W
4 8 5 1 2 13:14 -1 16
W W W D L
5
PAOK Home
8 5 0 3 16:11 5 15
L W L W W
6 8 4 1 3 13:12 1 13
W L L D W
7 8 3 2 3 10:11 -1 11
W L W W D
8 8 3 1 4 13:17 -4 10
L W W L W
9 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L L W D D
10 8 3 0 5 8:16 -8 9
L L L L L
11 8 1 3 4 7:15 -8 6
D L W D D
12 8 0 3 5 0:11 -11 3
D D L L D
13 7 0 2 5 6:12 -6 2
L L L D D
14 8 0 3 5 6:13 -7 0
L D L L L
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Promotion - Super League (Conference League Group)
Super League (Relegation Group)