FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Raatin stadion
Referee: M. Roth
AC Oulu
Match Timeline
Ilves
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
43'
Sauli Väisänen
Ilves
🔄
46'
J. Kilo ↔ J. Kanga
Ilves
55'
A. Kone · Assist: R. Karjalainen
AC Oulu
🔄
63'
S. Vaisanen ↔ G. Bamba
Ilves
🔄
63'
M. Rale ↔ O. Pettersson
Ilves
🔄
69'
S. Baranov ↔ S. Suvanne
Ilves
🔄
74'
A. Kone ↔ N. Jokelainen
AC Oulu
🔄
80'
A. Popovitch ↔ L. Ala-Myllymaki
Ilves
🔄
85'
J. Paananen ↔ I. Mendolin
AC Oulu
🔄
85'
R. Karjalainen ↔ M. Ojala
AC Oulu
🟨
86'
Alex Lietsa
AC Oulu

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.8%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
AC Oulu Win 63.8%
Draw 9.4%
Ilves Win 26.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
AC Oulu1.34
Ilves1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
AC Oulu AC Oulu
WWDLW
25 GF / 24 GA
Ilves Ilves
WLDWL
46 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.84
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
10
BTTS Yes
13
8
Over 2.5
14
2.24
Shots on Goal
2.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

AC Oulu AC Oulu 19 matches
Ilves Ilves 25 matches
AC Oulu Statistic Ilves
9 Wins 11
4 Draws 5
6 Losses 9
25 Goals For 46
24 Goals Against 34
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.84
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
10 BTTS Yes 13
13 Over 1.5 17
8 Over 2.5 14
4 Over 3.5 12
6 Clean Sheets 9
4 Failed To Score 4
2.24 Shots On Goal 2.42
5.94 Total Shots 5.47
2.29 Corners 1.89
22.5% Ball Possession 23.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. AC Oulu have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with AC Oulu expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Ilves in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ilves having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ilves.

AC Oulu Analysis

With 27 points from 17 games and a place of 4, AC Oulu still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 21:21, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through E. Kallio (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ilves Analysis

Ilves sit 9 with 19 points after 16 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 28:30 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Maksim Stjopin (2 goals), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, AC Oulu won 2 times, Ilves won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:23 from AC Oulu's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: AC Oulu 4-2-3-1 / Ilves 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: AC Oulu wins 2, draws 3, Ilves wins 10

Lineups

AC Oulu
Formation
Ilves
M. Santos
M. Santos
A. Lietsa
A. Lietsa
J. Pirinen
J. Pirinen
A. Cassama
A. Cassama
M. Arsalo
M. Arsalo
J. Paananen
J. Paananen
L. Ghezali
L. Ghezali
R. Karjalainen
🎯
R. Karjalainen
E. Kallio
E. Kallio
T. Kaukua
T. Kaukua
A. Kone
A. Kone
F. Krkalic
F. Krkalic
T. Miettunen
T. Miettunen
S. Vaisanen
S. Vaisanen
M. Rale
M. Rale
V. Kumpu
V. Kumpu
O. Multala
O. Multala
A. Popovitch
A. Popovitch
K. Wallius
K. Wallius
S. Baranov
S. Baranov
J. Kilo
J. Kilo
T. Hytonen
T. Hytonen
AC Oulu 3-2-4-1
Starting XI
13
M. Santos
G
3
A. Lietsa
🟨 86'
D
66
J. Pirinen
D
18
A. Cassama
M
25
M. Arsalo
M
6
J. Paananen
↓ 85'
M
11
L. Ghezali
M
7
R. Karjalainen
🎯 55' ↓ 85'
M
27
E. Kallio
M
22
T. Kaukua
M
32
A. Kone
⚽ 55' ↓ 74'
Substitutes
99
N. Schulz
G
14
N. Jokelainen
↑ 74'
M
16
O. Kemppainen
D
29
S. Silander
D
21
I. Mendolin
↑ 85'
8
M. Ojala
↑ 85'
M
5
M. Pitkanen
D
2
S. Sipola
D
20
K. Jatta
M
Ilves 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
12
F. Krkalic
G
16
T. Miettunen
D
5
S. Vaisanen
↓ 63' 🟨 43'
D
3
M. Rale
↓ 63'
D
24
V. Kumpu
D
22
O. Multala
M
14
A. Popovitch
↓ 80'
M
13
K. Wallius
M
17
S. Baranov
↓ 69'
M
28
J. Kilo
↓ 46'
M
9
T. Hytonen
F
Substitutes
1
O. Virtanen
G
10
R. Riski
F
19
G. Bamba
↑ 63'
D
45
E. Tamminen
F
15
L. Ala-Myllymaki
↑ 80'
M
4
O. Pettersson
↑ 63'
30
J. Kanga
↑ 46'
M
25
S. Suvanne
↑ 69'
D
33
Y. Sacko
Last matches: AC Oulu
22.08.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
1
0
W
16.08.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
2
3
L
09.08.26
Vei
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
25.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
1
1
D
18.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
0
2
L
11.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
0
3
L
27.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
5
L
18.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
0
0
D
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
23.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
SJK
1
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
L
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
25.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
2
L
22.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
5
1
W
Last matches: Ilves
22.08.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
0
1
L
17.08.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
3
L
13.08.26
UEF
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
1
1
D
09.08.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
W
06.08.26
UEF
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
30.07.26
UEF
Ilves
Stjarnan
1
0
W
26.07.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
W
23.07.26
UEF
Ilves
Stjarnan
0
1
L
20.07.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
3
1
W
16.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
3
1
W
08.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
0
0
D
04.07.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
1
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
2
2
D
23.06.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
3
4
L
17.06.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
5
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
23.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
0
W
20.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
H2H: AC Oulu vs Ilves
02.08.26
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
1
0
W
08.05.26
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
L
21.02.26
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
2
2
D
16.08.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
4
L
24.05.25
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
0
0
D
01.02.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
1
2
L
04.08.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
L
04.05.24
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
3
2
L
29.03.24
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
L
08.02.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
L
06.10.23
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
3
2
L
23.08.23
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
L
19.08.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
3
L
05.05.23
H2H
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
2
W
28.01.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
0
D
Last matches: AC Oulu
16.08.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
2
3
L
09.08.26
Vei
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
18.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
0
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
18.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
2
1
W
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
18.01.26
Fri
AC Oulu
JIPPO
1
1
D
H2H at home: AC Oulu
02.08.26
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
1
0
W
16.08.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
4
L
01.02.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
1
2
L
04.08.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
L
08.02.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
L
19.08.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
3
L
28.01.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
0
D
Last matches: Ilves
17.08.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
3
L
06.08.26
UEF
Ilves
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
23.07.26
UEF
Ilves
Stjarnan
0
1
L
20.07.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
3
1
W
08.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
0
0
D
04.07.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
1
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
3
4
L
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
02.05.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
2
D
11.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
0
5
L
10.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
6
L
H2H away: Ilves
02.08.26
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
1
0
L
16.08.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
4
W
01.02.25
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
1
2
W
04.08.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
W
08.02.24
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
W
19.08.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
3
W
28.01.23
H2H
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
0
D

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 12 7 2 38:22 16 43
L W D W W
2 21 10 9 2 28:16 12 39
D W D W L
3 21 10 5 6 35:28 7 35
W W D L W
4 21 10 4 7 34:26 8 34
L W W L W
5 21 9 6 6 29:21 8 33
W L W L L
6 21 10 3 8 25:25 0 33
W L L W D
7 21 8 6 7 27:22 5 30
D W D W L
8 21 8 5 8 25:19 6 29
W L D W L
9
Ilves Away
21 7 4 10 33:35 -2 25
L L W L W
10 21 4 6 11 25:33 -8 18
L L D W L
11 21 3 6 12 18:42 -24 15
L L L L W
12 21 2 5 14 15:43 -28 11
W W L L D
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)