NORWAY ELITESERIEN
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Color Line Stadion
Referee: M. Grotta

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54%
Odds 2.01
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.69
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54%
2.01
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.69
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.13
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Aalesund Win 32.5%
Draw 13.5%
Tromso Win 54%
Expected Goals (xG)
Aalesund1.35
Tromso1.71
Recent Form (Last 5)
Aalesund Aalesund
WWDLW
36 GF / 42 GA
Tromso Tromso
WLDWL
36 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1.57
1.91
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
16
BTTS Yes
8
14
Over 2.5
9
4.86
Shots on Goal
4.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Aalesund Aalesund 22 matches
Tromso Tromso 23 matches
Aalesund Statistic Tromso
6 Wins 13
7 Draws 6
9 Losses 4
36 Goals For 36
42 Goals Against 21
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
1.91 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
16 BTTS Yes 8
20 Over 1.5 16
14 Over 2.5 9
11 Over 3.5 8
3 Clean Sheets 12
3 Failed To Score 6
4.86 Shots On Goal 4.88
14.5 Total Shots 11.69
4.5 Corners 5.31
43.4% Ball Possession 46.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Tromso's more proactive style and Aalesund's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Tromso carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 31 points while Aalesund sit 14 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tromso. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Aalesund Analysis

Aalesund sit 14 with 12 points after 13 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 18:28, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Endre Hjertager Osenbroch (3 goals), Mathias Christensen (3 goals), Henrik Melland (3 goals), with creative support from Endre Hjertager Osenbroch (2 assists), Uba Charles (2 assists), Mathias Christensen (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tromso Analysis

Tromso arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 31 points after 15 matches. The record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 26:15 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Heine Asen Larsen (3 goals), Jens Hjertø-Dahl (2 goals), Troy Nyhammer (2 goals), with creative support from Ruben Jenssen (4 assists), Jens Hjertø-Dahl (2 assists), Vetle Skjaervik (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Aalesund won 5 times, Tromso won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:14 from Aalesund's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.7 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.5%)
Predicted formations: Aalesund 5-3-2 / Tromso 5-3-2
Missing players: Aalesund 6, Tromso 2
H2H summary: Aalesund wins 5, draws 3, Tromso wins 2
Last matches: Aalesund
26.07.26
Eli
Aalesund
Viking
1
1
D
16.07.26
Eli
Aalesund
Valerenga
1
6
L
11.07.26
Eli
Aalesund
Molde
2
2
D
27.06.26
Fri
Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
3
0
W
29.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Ham-Kam
2
2
D
25.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Tromso
1
1
D
20.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Brann
2
1
W
16.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Rosenborg
3
2
W
03.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Sandefjord
0
1
L
26.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
1
1
D
18.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
Bodo/Glimt
0
3
L
12.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
KFUM Oslo
2
2
D
07.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
Fredrikstad
2
3
L
21.03.26
Eli
Aalesund
Start
1
1
D
15.03.26
Eli
Aalesund
Lillestrom
1
3
L
28.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Brattvåg
6
1
W
27.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Molde
1
4
L
22.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Fredrikstad
2
3
L
15.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Sirius
2
3
L
06.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
hodd
2
0
W
Last matches: Tromso
30.07.26
UEF
Tromso
Hradec Králové
1
3
L
23.07.26
UEF
Tromso
Hradec Králové
0
1
L
18.07.26
Eli
Tromso
Ham-Kam
4
1
W
11.07.26
Eli
Tromso
Valerenga
4
0
W
25.06.26
Fri
Tromso
Orgryte IS
4
1
W
29.05.26
Eli
Tromso
KFUM Oslo
0
0
D
25.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Aalesund
1
1
D
16.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Bodo/Glimt
0
5
L
10.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Molde
2
0
W
03.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Start
1
1
D
29.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Brann
0
5
L
26.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Sandefjord
3
1
W
19.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
0
W
15.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Lillestrom
0
0
D
11.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Kristiansund BK
2
0
W
06.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Rosenborg
2
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Tromso
Start
1
0
W
22.03.26
Eli
Tromso
Brann
2
1
W
15.03.26
Eli
Tromso
Fredrikstad
4
0
W
27.02.26
Fri
Tromso
Lillestrom
0
0
D
H2H: Aalesund vs Tromso
25.05.26
H2H
Tromso
Aalesund
1
1
D
08.03.25
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
1
0
W
08.10.23
H2H
Tromso
Aalesund
1
2
W
11.06.23
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
2
3
L
13.11.22
H2H
Tromso
Aalesund
2
2
D
18.04.22
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
2
2
D
20.08.17
H2H
Tromso
Aalesund
3
2
L
30.04.17
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
3
1
W
05.08.16
H2H
Tromso
Aalesund
1
2
W
24.04.16
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
6
0
W
Last matches: Aalesund
26.07.26
Eli
Aalesund
Viking
1
1
D
11.07.26
Eli
Aalesund
Molde
2
2
D
29.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Ham-Kam
2
2
D
20.05.26
Eli
Aalesund
Brann
2
1
W
26.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
1
1
D
12.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
KFUM Oslo
2
2
D
07.04.26
Eli
Aalesund
Fredrikstad
2
3
L
15.03.26
Eli
Aalesund
Lillestrom
1
3
L
28.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Brattvåg
6
1
W
22.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
Fredrikstad
2
3
L
06.02.26
Fri
Aalesund
hodd
2
0
W
30.01.26
Fri
Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
1
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Aalesund
Brattvåg
0
2
L
H2H at home: Aalesund
08.03.25
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
1
0
W
11.06.23
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
2
3
L
18.04.22
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
2
2
D
30.04.17
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
3
1
W
24.04.16
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
6
0
W
Last matches: Tromso
30.07.26
UEF
Tromso
Hradec Králové
1
3
L
18.07.26
Eli
Tromso
Ham-Kam
4
1
W
29.05.26
Eli
Tromso
KFUM Oslo
0
0
D
16.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Bodo/Glimt
0
5
L
03.05.26
Eli
Tromso
Start
1
1
D
19.04.26
Eli
Tromso
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
0
W
22.03.26
Eli
Tromso
Brann
2
1
W
18.01.26
Fri
Tromso
Lyn
2
0
W
H2H away: Tromso
08.03.25
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
1
0
L
11.06.23
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
2
3
W
18.04.22
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
2
2
D
30.04.17
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
3
1
L
24.04.16
H2H
Aalesund
Tromso
6
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.01
Draw 3.71
Home 3.53
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.64
Draw 2.40
Home 3.87
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.21
Over 2.25 1.50
Over 2.5 1.69
Over 2.75 1.88
Over 3.0 2.13
Over 3.25 2.42
Over 3.5 2.69
Over 4.5 4.88
Under 1.5 4.45
Under 2.25 2.61
Under 2.5 2.18
Under 2.75 1.96
Under 3.0 1.71
Under 3.25 1.57
Under 3.5 1.47
Under 4.5 1.18
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.95
Draw 3.70
Home 3.70
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 2.38
Home 4.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.25
Draw 2.60
Home 3.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.5 1.67
Over 3.5 2.62
Over 4.5 5.00
Over 5.5 10.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 13.00
Under 1.5 4.33
Under 2.5 2.15
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.00
Draw 3.74
Home 3.58
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.47
Draw 2.24
Home 3.95
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.25
Draw 2.64
Home 3.54
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.08
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 1.75 1.23
Over 2.0 1.28
Over 2.25 1.52
Over 2.5 1.70
Over 2.75 1.87
Over 3.0 2.06
Over 3.25 2.31
Over 3.5 2.57
Over 3.75 3.05
Over 4.0 3.96
Over 4.25 4.30
Over 4.5 4.65
Over 4.75 5.80
Over 5.0 8.10
Over 5.5 8.70
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 11.80
Under 1.0 8.90
Under 1.25 5.61
Under 1.5 4.05
Under 1.75 3.62
Under 2.0 3.24
Under 2.25 2.56
Under 2.5 2.17
Under 2.75 1.95
Under 3.0 1.65
Under 3.25 1.49
Under 3.5 1.40
Under 3.75 1.28
Under 4.0 1.17
Under 4.25 1.15
Under 4.5 1.12
Under 4.75 1.07
Under 5.0 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.86
Draw 3.60
Home 3.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.38
Draw 2.33
Home 4.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.17
Draw 2.63
Home 3.70
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.0 1.30
Over 2.25 1.49
Over 2.5 1.67
Over 2.75 1.84
Over 3.0 2.10
Over 3.25 2.38
Over 3.5 2.63
Over 3.75 3.15
Over 4.0 4.00
Over 4.5 4.60
Under 1.5 3.85
Under 2.0 3.10
Under 2.25 2.38
Under 2.5 2.04
Under 2.75 1.83
Under 3.0 1.62
Under 3.25 1.49
Under 3.5 1.41
Under 3.75 1.30
Under 4.0 1.19
Under 4.5 1.14

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 12 2 2 41:11 30 38
W W W W W
2 14 11 1 2 34:14 20 34
D W W L W
3 15 9 4 2 26:15 11 31
W W D D L
4 15 8 1 6 22:18 4 25
L L W W L
5 14 7 2 5 25:19 6 23
W L D W L
6 14 6 3 5 15:16 -1 21
W D W W W
7 15 6 3 6 23:26 -3 21
W L L L D
8 15 6 2 7 22:27 -5 20
L W W L W
9 15 6 1 8 30:25 5 19
L W W L L
10 14 5 3 6 19:18 1 18
W W W D L
11 14 4 3 7 13:20 -7 15
L L D L D
12 14 4 2 8 15:27 -12 14
L L L W D
13 14 2 7 5 19:29 -10 13
D L D D D
14 14 3 3 8 15:25 -10 12
L L L D W
15 14 3 3 8 12:23 -11 12
L D L L L
16 15 2 4 9 16:34 -18 10
W L L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen

Missing Players

Aalesund 6 missing
-
A. Kjelsen
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
M. Christensen
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
M. Kristensen
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
P. Ngongo
Missing Fixture Surgery
OUT
-
M. Reed
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
J. Seehusen
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Tromso 2 missing
-
L. Cornic
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
V. Ekblom
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT