CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida
Referee: C. Garay
A. Italiano
Match Timeline
Universidad de Chile
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Raimundo Rebolledo
A. Italiano
22'
A. Arce · Assist: Eduardo Vargas
Universidad de Chile
🟨
33'
Bianneider Tamayo
Universidad de Chile
🟨
39'
Paolo Guajardo
A. Italiano
57'
F. Mateos · Assist: E. Matus
A. Italiano
🔄
65'
I. E. Poblete Zuniga ↔ C. Aranguiz
Universidad de Chile
🔄
65'
I. A. Vasquez Gonzalez ↔ L. Assadi
Universidad de Chile
🔄
69'
C. Pinares ↔ M. Collao
A. Italiano
🔄
69'
P. Guajardo ↔ G. Chiaverano
A. Italiano
🔄
75'
A. Arce ↔ J. Lucero
Universidad de Chile
77'
Eduardo Vargas
Universidad de Chile
🔄
78'
M. Fuentes ↔ F. Loyola
A. Italiano
🔄
78'
F. Mateos ↔ M. Sandoval
A. Italiano
🔄
85'
B. Soto ↔ D. Coelho
A. Italiano
🔄
87'
M. G. Guerrero Pena ↔ F. Calderon
Universidad de Chile
🟨
90'
Juan Martín Lucero
Universidad de Chile

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92.3%
Odds 1.33
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.16
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92.3%
1.33
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.16
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.24
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
A. Italiano Win 45.5%
Draw 7.7%
Universidad de Chile Win 46.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
A. Italiano1.15
Universidad de Chile1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
A. Italiano A. Italiano
WWDLW
27 GF / 28 GA
Universidad de Chile Universidad de Chile
WLDWL
29 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
0.95
10
BTTS Yes
8
13
Over 2.5
9
3.07
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

A. Italiano A. Italiano 21 matches
Universidad de Chile Universidad de Chile 21 matches
A. Italiano Statistic Universidad de Chile
8 Wins 9
4 Draws 7
9 Losses 5
27 Goals For 29
28 Goals Against 20
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 0.95
10 BTTS Yes 8
14 Over 1.5 12
13 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 6
6 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 7
3.07 Shots On Goal 4.33
11.2 Total Shots 12.2
4.13 Corners 5.53
51.1% Ball Possession 56.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Universidad de Chile's more proactive style and A. Italiano's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Universidad de Chile having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Universidad de Chile carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 24 points while A. Italiano sit 13 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Universidad de Chile. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

A. Italiano Analysis

A. Italiano are currently 13 in the standings with 16 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 18:21 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Coelho (4 goals), F. Troyansky (3 goals), G. Chiaverano (3 goals), with creative support from E. Matus (3 assists), G. Chiaverano (2 assists), N. Aedo (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Universidad de Chile Analysis

Universidad de Chile come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 24 points after 15 matches. The return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 17:10, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Eduardo Vargas (5 goals), J. Altamirano (2 goals), M. G. Guerrero Pena (2 goals), with creative support from M. G. Guerrero Pena (2 assists), Fabián Hormazábal (2 assists), I. E. Poblete Zuniga (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, A. Italiano won 6 times, Universidad de Chile won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:20 from A. Italiano's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: A. Italiano 4-1-3-2 / Universidad de Chile 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: A. Italiano wins 6, draws 3, Universidad de Chile wins 6
Stats
A. Italiano A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile Universidad de Chile
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
0
2 Corner Kicks 5
11 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 1
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Goal 4
5 Shots off Goal 6
3 Blocked Shots 0
8 Shots insidebox 7
5 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Goalkeeper Saves 4
404 Total passes 386
326 Passes accurate 317
1.15 expected_goals 1.31
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

A. Italiano
Formation
Universidad de Chile
T. Ahumada
T. Ahumada
R. Rebolledo
R. Rebolledo
E. Ferrario
E. Ferrario
D. Pina
D. Pina
E. Matus
🎯
E. Matus
B. Soto
B. Soto
P. Guajardo
P. Guajardo
F. Mateos
F. Mateos
C. Pinares
C. Pinares
F. Troyansky
F. Troyansky
M. Fuentes
M. Fuentes
G. Castellon
G. Castellon
F. Hormazabal
F. Hormazabal
N. Ramirez
N. Ramirez
B. Tamayo
B. Tamayo
M. Morales
M. Morales
L. Barrera
L. Barrera
M. G. Guerrero Pena
M. G. Guerrero Pena
I. E. Poblete Zuniga
I. E. Poblete Zuniga
A. Arce
A. Arce
I. A. Vasquez Gonzalez
I. A. Vasquez Gonzalez
Eduardo Vargas
🎯
Eduardo Vargas
A. Italiano 4-1-3-2
Starting XI
1
T. Ahumada
G
35
R. Rebolledo
🟨 19'
D
13
E. Ferrario
D
4
D. Pina
D
23
E. Matus
🎯 57'
D
32
B. Soto
↓ 85'
M
7
P. Guajardo
↓ 69' 🟨 39'
M
28
F. Mateos
⚽ 57' ↓ 78'
19
C. Pinares
↓ 69'
M
11
F. Troyansky
F
27
M. Fuentes
↓ 78'
F
Substitutes
25
P. Garrido
16
O. J. Rojas Munoz
M
8
M. Collao
↑ 69'
M
30
A. Uribe
M
17
F. Loyola
↑ 78'
M
21
G. Chiaverano
↑ 69'
F
6
M. Sandoval
↑ 78'
M
29
M. Ortiz
D
9
D. Coelho
↑ 85'
F
Universidad de Chile 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
25
G. Castellon
G
17
F. Hormazabal
D
5
N. Ramirez
D
31
B. Tamayo
14
M. Morales
D
29
L. Barrera
M
7
M. G. Guerrero Pena
↓ 87'
M
8
I. E. Poblete Zuniga
↓ 65'
M
28
A. Arce
⚽ 22' ↓ 75'
M
23
I. A. Vasquez Gonzalez
↓ 65'
M
11
Eduardo Vargas
⚽ 77' 🎯 22'
F
Substitutes
1
C. Toselli
G
20
C. Aranguiz
↑ 65'
M
19
J. Altamirano
M
6
N. Fernandez
D
21
M. Diaz
M
18
J. Lucero
↑ 75' 🟨 90'
F
2
F. Calderon
↑ 87'
D
10
L. Assadi
↑ 65'
M
38
D. Cofre
F
Last matches: A. Italiano
11.07.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Magallanes
1
0
W
05.07.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
1
2
L
30.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
3
2
W
27.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Magallanes
2
1
W
24.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
2
1
W
19.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
1
L
13.06.26
Pri
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
1
1
D
01.06.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Palestino
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Cobresal
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Coquimbo Unido
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Deportes Limache
2
2
D
20.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Huachipato
2
3
L
11.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
U. Catolica
3
4
L
03.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
O'Higgins
1
2
L
13.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Concepción
3
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Colo Colo
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Union La Calera
0
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Nublense
0
1
L
06.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Concepcion
3
0
W
Last matches: Universidad de Chile
05.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Santiago Wanderers
3
2
W
02.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Union La Calera
0
1
L
28.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Union San Felipe
2
0
W
24.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Union La Calera
3
3
D
21.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Santiago Wanderers
4
1
W
19.06.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
O'Higgins
2
0
W
14.06.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Union La Calera
2
2
D
30.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Concepción
2
1
W
17.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Cobresal
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
U. Catolica
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Everton de Vina
0
0
D
12.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Nublense
0
1
L
05.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
D. La Serena
4
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
09.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Universidad de Concepcion
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Colo Colo
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Deportes Limache
2
2
D
13.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Palestino
0
0
D
08.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Huachipato
1
2
L
30.01.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
A. Italiano
0
0
D
H2H: A. Italiano vs Universidad de Chile
26.07.26
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
07.06.26
H2H
Universidad de Chile
A. Italiano
2
2
D
31.03.26
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
3
L
30.01.26
H2H
Universidad de Chile
A. Italiano
0
0
D
17.08.25
H2H
Universidad de Chile
A. Italiano
1
3
W
14.03.25
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
1
D
28.07.24
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
0
W
24.02.24
H2H
Universidad de Chile
A. Italiano
1
0
L
02.10.23
H2H
Universidad de Chile
A. Italiano
2
0
L
16.04.23
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
03.10.22
H2H
Universidad de Chile
A. Italiano
2
3
W
29.04.22
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
2
0
W
15.10.21
H2H
Universidad de Chile
A. Italiano
0
1
W
01.06.21
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
2
1
W
09.12.20
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
3
L
Last matches: A. Italiano
30.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
3
2
W
27.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Magallanes
2
1
W
19.06.26
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
1
L
13.06.26
Pri
A. Italiano
D. La Serena
1
1
D
23.05.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Cobresal
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Deportes Limache
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pri
A. Italiano
U. Catolica
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Concepción
3
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Colo Colo
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Everton de Vina
1
0
W
06.02.26
Pri
A. Italiano
Universidad de Concepcion
3
0
W
29.09.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Huachipato
1
0
W
16.07.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Curico Unido
1
0
W
01.07.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Temuco
2
0
W
11.05.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Palestino
2
2
D
07.05.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Concepción
2
1
W
06.02.25
Cop
A. Italiano
Union Espanola
3
1
W
30.06.24
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Santa Cruz
0
2
L
03.07.23
Cop
A. Italiano
O'Higgins
0
2
L
22.06.23
Cop
A. Italiano
Deportes Rengo
2
1
W
H2H at home: A. Italiano
26.07.26
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
31.03.26
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
3
L
14.03.25
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
1
D
28.07.24
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
0
W
16.04.23
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
29.04.22
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
2
0
W
01.06.21
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
2
1
W
09.12.20
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
3
L
Last matches: Universidad de Chile
05.07.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Santiago Wanderers
3
2
W
24.06.26
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Union La Calera
3
3
D
14.06.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Union La Calera
2
2
D
17.05.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Cobresal
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Everton de Vina
0
0
D
12.04.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Nublense
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Colo Colo
1
0
W
13.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Palestino
0
0
D
08.02.26
Pri
Universidad de Chile
Huachipato
1
2
L
25.01.26
Fri
Universidad de Chile
Universitario
0
3
L
08.06.25
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Curico Unido
1
2
L
05.04.25
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Magallanes
3
1
W
10.02.25
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Santiago Morning
3
1
W
29.01.25
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Recoleta
6
1
W
09.10.24
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Coquimbo Unido
0
0
D
05.09.24
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Palestino
5
0
W
07.07.24
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Everton de Vina
1
2
L
28.06.24
Cop
Universidad de Chile
San Antonio Unido
0
0
D
17.06.24
Cop
Universidad de Chile
Municipal Puente Alto
5
1
W
H2H away: Universidad de Chile
26.07.26
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
2
W
31.03.26
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
3
W
14.03.25
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
1
D
28.07.24
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
0
L
16.04.23
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
2
W
29.04.22
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
2
0
L
01.06.21
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
2
1
L
09.12.20
H2H
A. Italiano
Universidad de Chile
1
3
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.41
Draw 3.29
Home 3.13
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.17
Home 3.83
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.35
Over 1.75 1.44
Over 2.0 1.59
Over 2.25 1.88
Over 2.5 2.16
Over 2.75 2.51
Over 3.5 3.88
Under 1.5 3.28
Under 1.75 2.88
Under 2.0 2.45
Under 2.25 1.99
Under 2.5 1.74
Under 2.75 1.56
Under 3.5 1.27
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.25
Draw 3.25
Home 3.10
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 2.10
Home 3.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.62
Draw 2.38
Home 3.25
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 2.5 2.10
Over 3.5 3.75
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.00
Under 2.5 1.70
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.36
Draw 3.12
Home 3.04
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.04
Draw 1.96
Home 3.84
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.66
Draw 2.33
Home 3.39
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.02
Over 1.0 1.04
Over 1.25 1.17
Over 1.5 1.31
Over 1.75 1.40
Over 2.0 1.53
Over 2.25 1.84
Over 2.5 2.09
Over 2.75 2.44
Over 3.0 2.96
Over 3.25 3.30
Over 3.5 3.58
Over 3.75 4.64
Over 4.0 6.70
Over 4.25 7.09
Over 4.5 7.50
Over 5.0 10.00
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 8.40
Under 0.75 7.65
Under 1.0 6.90
Under 1.25 3.98
Under 1.5 2.92
Under 1.75 2.64
Under 2.0 2.26
Under 2.25 1.91
Under 2.5 1.70
Under 2.75 1.52
Under 3.0 1.32
Under 3.25 1.25
Under 3.5 1.21
Under 3.75 1.12
Under 4.0 1.05
Under 4.25 1.04
Under 4.5 1.03
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.32
Draw 3.15
Home 3.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.85
Draw 2.10
Home 3.45
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.65
Draw 2.38
Home 3.25
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.0 1.54
Over 2.5 2.02
Over 3.0 2.90
Over 3.25 3.25
Over 3.5 3.55
Over 4.0 6.00
Over 4.5 6.50
Under 1.5 2.95
Under 2.0 2.28
Under 2.5 1.67
Under 3.0 1.34
Under 3.25 1.28
Under 3.5 1.24
Under 4.0 1.08
Under 4.5 1.07

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 13 0 3 32:13 19 39
W W W W W
2 16 8 3 5 38:23 15 27
D W W L W
3 16 7 6 3 19:11 8 27
W W D W L
4 16 6 7 3 20:19 1 25
W D W D L
5 15 7 3 5 22:18 4 24
D W D W L
6 16 7 3 6 26:25 1 24
D D L L W
7 16 7 3 6 23:23 0 24
L W D W W
8 16 6 5 5 20:16 4 23
D L W D W
9 16 6 3 7 31:26 5 21
L L L L L
10 16 6 2 8 19:24 -5 20
L L D L L
11 16 4 7 5 24:28 -4 19
D D L W L
12 15 5 4 6 13:26 -13 19
L D D W L
13 16 5 2 9 16:23 -7 17
W W L W L
14 16 4 4 8 19:23 -4 16
L D D W L
15 16 4 2 10 22:32 -10 14
D L L L W
16 16 3 4 9 15:29 -14 13
D D D L L