22.08.2026 00:30
Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida
Referee: M. Salvo
A. Italiano
Match Timeline
Union La Calera
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
26'
Joaquín Soto
Union La Calera
🟨
27'
César Pinares
A. Italiano
🟨
36'
Bayron Oyarzo
Union La Calera
🟨
42'
Kevin Méndez
Union La Calera
🔄
46'
P. Guajardo ↔ G. Chiaverano
A. Italiano
🔄
59'
Y. W. Andia Leon ↔ Y. Leiva
Union La Calera
🔄
59'
K. Mendez ↔ F. Pozzo
Union La Calera
🔄
64'
M. Collao ↔ A. Uribe
A. Italiano
🟨
67'
Vicente Lavín
Union La Calera
🔄
70'
J. Soto ↔ C. Villanueva
Union La Calera
🔄
70'
B. Ferreyra ↔ M. Campos
Union La Calera
🟨
72'
Federico Mateos
A. Italiano
🔄
76'
C. Pinares ↔ M. Sandoval
A. Italiano
🔄
76'
M. Fuentes ↔ F. Loyola
A. Italiano
🟨
79'
Favian Loyola
A. Italiano
🔄
81'
F. Troyansky ↔ D. Coelho
A. Italiano
🟨
90+3'
Raimundo Rebolledo
A. Italiano

A. Italiano vs Union La Calera Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 45.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
45.4%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
A. Italiano Win 45.4%
Draw 15.6%
Union La Calera Win 39%
Expected Goals (xG)
A. Italiano1.38
Union La Calera1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
A. Italiano A. Italiano
WWDLW
32 GF / 33 GA
Union La Calera Union La Calera
WLDWL
34 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
13
BTTS Yes
12
15
Over 2.5
16
3.11
Shots on Goal
3.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

A. Italiano A. Italiano 25 matches
Union La Calera Union La Calera 25 matches
A. Italiano Statistic Union La Calera
9 Wins 8
6 Draws 6
10 Losses 11
32 Goals For 34
33 Goals Against 38
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
13 BTTS Yes 12
17 Over 1.5 19
15 Over 2.5 16
5 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 7
3.11 Shots On Goal 3.47
10.42 Total Shots 10.21
3.63 Corners 5.32
47.8% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Union La Calera. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with A. Italiano expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Union La Calera in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Union La Calera having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

A. Italiano Analysis

A. Italiano sit 13 with 20 points after 18 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, while the 22:25 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Michael Vadulli (3 goals), Giovani Chiaverano (2 goals), Diego Coelho (2 goals), with creative support from Esteban Matus (2 assists), Giovani Chiaverano (1 assists), Federico Mateos (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Union La Calera Analysis

Union La Calera sit 16 with 13 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 11 defeats with a 16:35 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Kevin Méndez (3 goals), Sebastián Sáez (3 goals), Francisco Jose Pozzo (2 goals), with creative support from Kevin Méndez (3 assists), Christopher Díaz (3 assists), Nicolás Avellaneda (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, A. Italiano won 3 times, Union La Calera won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:23 from A. Italiano's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.4%)
Predicted formations: A. Italiano 4-1-3-2 / Union La Calera 5-4-1
H2H summary: A. Italiano wins 3, draws 5, Union La Calera wins 7

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 17 3 3 48:22 26 54
D D W W D
2 23 13 3 7 50:33 17 42
W W W W L
3 23 12 6 5 35:19 16 42
W W L L W
4 23 10 6 7 37:25 12 36
W L W W D
5 23 11 3 9 36:33 3 36
L W L W W
6 23 10 3 10 43:35 8 33
L W W L W
7 23 8 8 7 28:31 -3 32
L L L L W
8 23 9 4 10 25:26 -1 31
D L W D W
9 23 7 9 7 34:38 -4 30
L W W D W
10 22 8 5 9 31:31 0 29
L L L W L
11 23 7 7 9 26:31 -5 28
W W L D D
12 23 8 3 12 28:36 -8 27
L W L L D
13 21 7 4 10 29:39 -10 25
W D L L L
14 23 7 3 13 34:44 -10 24
W L W D L
15 22 6 4 12 17:37 -20 22
L L W L L
16 23 4 5 14 19:40 -21 17
W L L D L