RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
10.05.2026 12:00
Gazprom Arena
Referee: R. Shafeev
Zenit
Match Timeline
FC Sochi
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
Vyacheslav Litvinov
FC Sochi
⚽
31'
Z. Fedorov · Assist: A. Makarchuk
FC Sochi
⚽
59'
Luiz Henrique · Assist: M. Glushenkov
Zenit
🔄
66'
W. Barrios ↔ A. Mostovoy
Zenit
🔄
66'
Pedrinho ↔ R. Vega
Zenit
🔄
68'
Z. Fedorov ↔ P. Meleshin
FC Sochi
🔄
76'
Luiz Henrique ↔ A. Erokhin
Zenit
🔄
76'
Wendel ↔ D. Kondakov
Zenit
🟨
77'
Dmitriy Vasiljev
FC Sochi
🔄
78'
D. Vasiljev ↔ M. Kramaric
FC Sochi
🔄
78'
M. Mukhin ↔ A. Zinkovskiy
FC Sochi
⚽
84'
A. Erokhin
Zenit
🟨
87'
Kirill Zaika
FC Sochi
🔄
88'
M. Glushenkov ↔ V. Drkusic
Zenit
🔄
89'
K. Zaika ↔ R. Magal
FC Sochi
🔄
89'
A. Kovalenko ↔ A. Korneev
FC Sochi
🟨
90+1'
Alexander Erokhin
Zenit

Zenit vs FC Sochi Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
54.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Zenit Win 82.4%
Draw 0%
FC Sochi Win 17.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Zenit1.89
FC Sochi0.83
Recent Form (Last 5)
Zenit Zenit
WWDLW
50 GF / 18 GA
FC Sochi FC Sochi
WLDWL
27 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.79
Average Goals Scored
0.96
0.64
Average Goals Conceded
2.04
13
BTTS Yes
15
11
Over 2.5
18
4.93
Shots on Goal
2.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Zenit Zenit 28 matches
FC Sochi FC Sochi 28 matches
Zenit Statistic FC Sochi
18 Wins 6
8 Draws 3
2 Losses 19
50 Goals For 27
18 Goals Against 57
1.79 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
0.64 Avg Goals Conceded 2.04
13 BTTS Yes 15
22 Over 1.5 22
11 Over 2.5 18
6 Over 3.5 10
14 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 11
4.93 Shots On Goal 2.86
12.86 Total Shots 8.96
5.46 Corners 3.61
59.5% Ball Possession 46.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Zenit's more proactive style and FC Sochi's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. FC Sochi look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FC Sochi. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Zenit arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 62 points compared to FC Sochi in 16 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Zenit expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and FC Sochi in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Sochi having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Zenit Analysis

Zenit come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 62 points after 28 matches. They have recorded 18 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses, with a 50:18 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on A. Sobolev (9 goals), Maksim Glushenkov (9 goals), A. Mostovoy (6 goals), with creative support from Maksim Glushenkov (7 assists), Pedro (4 assists), Luiz Henrique (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 12 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

FC Sochi Analysis

FC Sochi approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 21 points from 28 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 19 losses, together with goals at 27:57, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their threat comes through Mikhail Ignatov (4 goals), Anton Zinkovskiy (3 goals), Ignacio Saavedra (3 goals), with creative support from Ruslan Magal (3 assists), Anton Zinkovskiy (2 assists), V. Iljin (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Zenit won 10 times, FC Sochi won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 34:10 from Zenit's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Zenit 4-2-3-1 / FC Sochi 3-4-3
Missing players: Zenit 1, FC Sochi 3
H2H summary: Zenit wins 10, draws 3, FC Sochi wins 1

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Zenit Home
30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation