13.09.2026 19:00
York Lions Stadium
York United
Match Timeline
Vancouver FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
16'
Oswaldo Leon
York United
🟨
27'
Tomasz Noah Skublak
York United
39'
Luca accettola · Assist: Steffen Yeates
York United
🔄
45'
K. Proctor ↔ Paris Gee
Vancouver FC
50'
Tomasz Noah Skublak · Assist: Carlos Guzman
York United
56'
Callum Irving
York United
🟨
58'
elage bah
Vancouver FC
🔄
59'
Nicolás Mezquida ↔ Luis Toomey
Vancouver FC
🔄
62'
Luca accettola ↔ Kevonte Tyrique Jaaziah Clarke
York United
72'
elage bah · Assist: Luis Toomey
Vancouver FC
🔄
73'
Kembo·Kibato ↔ Juan Córdova
York United
🔄
77'
Lys Mousset ↔ Aboubacar Traore
Vancouver FC
🔄
77'
Marcello Polisi ↔ Benjamin Lee
Vancouver FC
🟨
78'
Kevonte Tyrique Jaaziah Clarke
York United
🔄
83'
morey doner ↔ Vitor Lucas De Araujo
Vancouver FC
🔄
83'
Damiano Pecile ↔ Abdoulaye·Ouattara
Vancouver FC
🔄
84'
Tomasz Noah Skublak ↔ Sebastian Gonzales
York United
🔄
84'
Jorge Ariel Almagro Albán ↔ Max Ferrari
York United
VAR
90+3'
Abdoulaye·Ouattara
Vancouver FC
VAR
90+7'
Kevonte Tyrique Jaaziah Clarke
York United
🔄
90'
Ollie Bassett ↔ Raúl López
York United

York United vs Vancouver FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 74.4%
Odds 1.44
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.69
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
74.4%
1.44
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
1.69
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
1.48
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
York United Win 25.6%
Draw 20.7%
Vancouver FC Win 53.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
York United1.38
Vancouver FC1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
York United York United
WWDLW
27 GF / 41 GA
Vancouver FC Vancouver FC
WLDWL
29 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.26
2.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
15
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
11
2.05
Shots on Goal
1.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

York United York United 20 matches
Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 23 matches
York United Statistic Vancouver FC
5 Wins 9
8 Draws 3
7 Losses 11
27 Goals For 29
41 Goals Against 33
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
2.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
15 BTTS Yes 10
17 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 11
10 Over 3.5 8
3 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 10
2.05 Shots On Goal 1.65
4.58 Total Shots 5.57
1.21 Corners 2.04
18.8% Ball Possession 21.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Vancouver FC's more proactive style and York United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Vancouver FC. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with York United expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Vancouver FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vancouver FC having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Vancouver FC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

York United Analysis

So far, York United have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 19 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 23:38 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Clarke (1 goals), with creative support from O. León (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vancouver FC Analysis

With 27 points from 20 games and a place of 4, Vancouver FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 26:23, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, York United won 10 times, Vancouver FC won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:14 from York United's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.3%)
Predicted formations: York United 3-4-3 / Vancouver FC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: York United wins 10, draws 2, Vancouver FC wins 3

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 14 4 2 40:12 28 46
W W W W D
2 21 14 3 4 33:15 18 45
W D L W W
3 22 10 4 8 34:37 -3 34
L D W L W
4 22 9 3 10 30:28 2 30
L W L L L
5 22 6 5 11 31:37 -6 23
W L L W L
6 20 5 8 7 29:42 -13 23
W D D L D
7 21 6 4 11 29:38 -9 22
L L W D L
8 20 1 7 12 25:42 -17 10
D D W L D