NETHERLANDS › EERSTE DIVISIE
16.05.2026 18:00
Koning Willem II Stadion
Referee: A. Bos
Willem II
Match Timeline
Almere City FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
60'
U. van Aalst
Willem II
🔄
68'
E. Cornelisse ↔ J. Jacobs
Almere City FC
🔄
69'
T. Bijleveld ↔ N. Takahashi
Almere City FC
🟨
70'
J. Jacobs
Almere City FC
🔄
70'
U. van Aalst ↔ S. Bamba
Willem II
🟨
73'
H. el Dahri
Almere City FC
🔄
79'
H. el Dahri ↔ M. de Haan
Almere City FC
🔄
79'
B. Reith ↔ O. de Nijs
Almere City FC
🔄
79'
J. Rijkhoff ↔ B. Huisman
Almere City FC
🔄
80'
D. Haen ↔ S. Baartmans
Willem II
🔄
80'
M. El Allouchi ↔ P. van Loon
Willem II
🟥
82'
M. de Haan
Almere City FC
🔄
85'
C. Twigt ↔ A. Et Taibi
Willem II
⚽
85'
A. Et Taibi · Assist: P. van Loon
Willem II

Willem II vs Almere City FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 60%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
60%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Willem II Win 61.1%
Draw 0%
Almere City FC Win 38.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Willem II1.53
Almere City FC1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Willem II Willem II
WWDLW
63 GF / 43 GA
Almere City FC Almere City FC
WLDWL
98 GF / 72 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
2.13
1.02
Average Goals Conceded
1.57
22
BTTS Yes
31
21
Over 2.5
35
5.38
Shots on Goal
6.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Willem II Willem II 42 matches
Almere City FC Almere City FC 46 matches
Willem II Statistic Almere City FC
23 Wins 24
9 Draws 5
10 Losses 17
63 Goals For 98
43 Goals Against 72
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 2.13
1.02 Avg Goals Conceded 1.57
22 BTTS Yes 31
31 Over 1.5 41
21 Over 2.5 35
8 Over 3.5 26
15 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 5
5.38 Shots On Goal 6.2
14.28 Total Shots 16.73
5.59 Corners 6.83
46.9% Ball Possession 48.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Willem II hold an advantage after winning the first leg 2-1, so Almere City FC now have a 1-goal deficit to overturn. In the previous meeting, Almere City FC controlled more possession in the first leg (56% against 44%). both sides produced the same number of shots on target. Almere City FC circulated the ball more often, making 512 passes to 399 and completing 427. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Almere City FC having the stronger overall control. Willem II come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Almere City FC. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Willem II Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Willem II arrive from a league campaign that has them 3 with 68 points after 38 matches. The return of 20 wins, 8 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 59:42 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking influence is driven by D. Haen (18 goals), Thomas Verheydt (10 goals), N. Doodeman (6 goals), with creative support from N. Doodeman (17 assists), D. Haen (4 assists), Thomas Verheydt (3 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Almere City FC Analysis

Almere City FC come into this tie placed 5 in their league with 58 points from 38 matches. With 18 wins, 4 draws, and 16 losses plus a goal ratio of 78:63, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on J. Rijkhoff (18 goals), F. Druijf (15 goals), E. Poku (11 goals), with creative support from J. Kadile (7 assists), M. de Haan (7 assists), E. Poku (6 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 8 wins, 1 draws, and 10 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Willem II won 6 times, Almere City FC won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:6 from Willem II's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.78 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Willem II 4-2-3-1 / Almere City FC 4-3-3
H2H summary: Willem II wins 6, draws 1, Almere City FC wins 2

Standings

Eerste Divisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 29 2 7 90:37 53 89
W W L W W
2 38 23 9 6 75:48 27 78
W L D D L
3 38 20 8 10 59:42 17 68
W L W W D
4 38 18 9 11 74:58 16 63
D L L W D
5 38 18 4 16 78:63 15 58
L L D W W
6 38 16 10 12 71:59 12 58
D L W D W
7 38 17 5 16 66:64 2 56
L L W W L
8 38 14 13 11 59:54 5 55
L D L D W
9 38 14 9 15 65:69 -4 51
L L L D L
10 38 12 11 15 48:56 -8 47
L L W D L
11 38 14 5 19 51:69 -18 47
W L L L D
12 38 12 10 16 58:62 -4 46
W D W L L
13 38 13 6 19 50:58 -8 45
W L D L W
14 38 12 9 17 58:72 -14 45
W D L W D
15 38 15 11 12 64:55 9 44
L D W W D
16 38 11 11 16 54:64 -10 44
W W W W L
17 38 12 4 22 61:76 -15 40
W L L L W
18 38 10 9 19 42:62 -20 39
L W D D L
19 38 9 11 18 41:73 -32 38
L D D L L
20 38 9 8 21 50:73 -23 35
L W L L L
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