ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP

05.09.2026 14:00

West Ham

3 - 0

Derby

London Stadium

Referee: Oliver Langford, England

West Ham

Match Timeline

Derby

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

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West Ham vs Derby Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Home Win

Probability 59.2%

Odds -

BTTS

Yes

Probability 71.2%

Odds -

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 64.5%

Odds -

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Home Win	59.2%	-	▥
BTTS	Yes	71.2%	-	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64.5%	-	▥
Corners O/U	Over 7.5 Corners	92%	-	▥
HT / FT	Home / Home	-	-	▥
Correct Score	2-1	-	-	▥

Probability Distribution

West Ham Win 59.2%

Draw 12.3%

Derby Win 28.6%

Expected Goals (xG)

West Ham1.73

Derby1.23

Recent Form (Last 5)

West Ham

WWDLW

15 GF / 9 GA

Derby

WLDWL

13 GF / 15 GA

Key Stats

1.88

Average Goals Scored

1.3

1.13

Average Goals Conceded

1.5

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

4.5

Shots on Goal

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

West Ham 8 matches

Derby 10 matches

West Ham	Statistic	Derby
2	Wins	3
5	Draws	2
1	Losses	5
15	Goals For	13
9	Goals Against	15
1.88	Avg Goals Scored	1.3
1.13	Avg Goals Conceded	1.5
6	BTTS Yes	6
7	Over 1.5	9
4	Over 2.5	6
3	Over 3.5	3
2	Clean Sheets	2
1	Failed To Score	2
4.5	Shots On Goal	4
15.25	Total Shots	11.5
7.5	Corners	4.5
59.3%	Ball Possession	43%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, West Ham won 2 times, Derby won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:3 from West Ham's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win

BTTS: Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (87.7%)

Predicted formations: West Ham 4-4-2 / Derby 4-2-3-1

Missing players: West Ham 1, Derby 5

H2H summary: West Ham wins 2, draws 0, Derby wins 1

Standings

Championship

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	Swansea	10	7	2	1	16:7	9	23	W W W W L
2	Middlesbrough	10	6	3	1	20:14	6	21	W W D D W
3	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	17:11	6	17	W W D W L
4	West Brom	10	5	2	3	12:10	2	17	W L L D W
5	West Ham Home	9	4	4	1	23:12	11	16	D D W W W
6	Stoke City	10	5	1	4	17:16	1	16	L W W W D
7	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	15:13	2	15	W W D W L
8	QPR	9	3	5	1	11:8	3	14	D D D D L
9	Wolves	9	4	2	3	16:14	2	14	L L W W D
10	Millwall	10	4	2	4	16:16	0	14	L W D D L
11	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	12:14	-2	14	L D W L L
12	Charlton	10	3	5	2	10:13	-3	14	D D L D D
13	Southampton	9	5	2	2	20:10	10	13	W L W W D
14	Bolton	10	4	1	5	15:18	-3	13	W L W W L
15	Sheffield Utd	9	3	3	3	12:11	1	12	W L L W L
16	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	11:15	-4	11	L D W L D
17	Lincoln	9	3	2	4	7:11	-4	11	L L W W D
18	Cardiff	10	2	4	4	16:15	1	10	W L W L D
19	Norwich	9	3	0	6	17:19	-2	9	L L L W W
20	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	9:11	-2	8	L D D W L
21	Burnley	10	1	5	4	15:19	-4	8	D W D L D
22	Watford	10	2	2	6	8:19	-11	8	L L L L W
23	Derby Away	9	1	3	5	8:15	-7	6	D D L L L
24	Preston	10	1	1	8	8:20	-12	4	L L D L L

Promotion - Premier League

Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)

Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)

Relegation - League One