ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Vicarage Road
Referee: R. Ricardo
Watford
Match Timeline
Coventry
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
19'
E. Simms · Assist: J. Bidwell
Coventry
🟨
25'
Imrân Louza
Watford
🟨
25'
Joel Latibeaudiere
Coventry
43'
E. Simms · Assist: J. Eccles
Coventry
58'
E. Simms · Assist: V. Torp
Coventry
🔄
62'
S. Goglichidze ↔ M. Bola
Watford
🔄
62'
G. Chakvetadze ↔ E. Bove
Watford
🔄
62'
N. Mendy ↔ J. Grieves
Watford
🔄
70'
J. Eccles ↔ J. Allen
Coventry
🔄
70'
R. Esse ↔ E. Mason-Clark
Coventry
🔄
70'
K. Kesler-Hayden ↔ M. van Ewijk
Coventry
🟨
78'
Nestory Irankunda
Watford
🔄
79'
E. Simms ↔ H. Wright
Coventry
🔄
82'
O. Maamma ↔ T. Ince
Watford
🔄
82'
I. Louza ↔ M. Doumbia
Watford
85'
V. Torp · Assist: J. Allen
Coventry
🔄
87'
B. Thomas-Asante ↔ M. Brau
Coventry

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 81.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 36.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
81.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
36.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Watford Win 18.8%
Draw 0%
Coventry Win 81.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Watford1.1
Coventry1.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Watford Watford
WWDLW
54 GF / 66 GA
Coventry Coventry
WLDWL
93 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
2.02
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1
28
BTTS Yes
27
22
Over 2.5
28
4.37
Shots on Goal
5.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Watford Watford 46 matches
Coventry Coventry 46 matches
Watford Statistic Coventry
14 Wins 27
15 Draws 11
17 Losses 8
54 Goals For 93
66 Goals Against 46
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 2.02
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1
28 BTTS Yes 27
37 Over 1.5 37
22 Over 2.5 28
11 Over 3.5 16
7 Clean Sheets 16
13 Failed To Score 8
4.37 Shots On Goal 5.43
13.76 Total Shots 16.07
5 Corners 5.24
51.3% Ball Possession 55.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Coventry's more proactive style and Watford's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Watford have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Coventry carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 92 points while Watford sit 16 on 57, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Watford expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Coventry in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Coventry having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Coventry. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Watford Analysis

With 57 points from 45 games and a place of 16, Watford still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 14 wins, 15 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 53:61 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on L. Kjerrumgaard (9 goals), I. Louza (7 goals), Mamadou Doumbia (5 goals), with creative support from I. Louza (9 assists), N. Irankunda (4 assists), Jeremy Ngakia (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses points to a very strong split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Coventry Analysis

Coventry come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 92 points from 45 matches. Their overall return of 27 wins, 11 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 93:45 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by H. Wright (17 goals), B. Thomas-Asante (13 goals), E. Mason-Clark (10 goals), with creative support from Milan van Ewijk (8 assists), E. Mason-Clark (6 assists), V. Torp (6 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 10 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Watford won 2 times, Coventry won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:20 from Watford's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.69 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Watford 4-4-2 / Coventry 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Watford wins 2, draws 6, Coventry wins 5
Stats
Watford Watford
Coventry Coventry
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
6
0 Corner Kicks 6
16 Fouls 10
5 Offsides 1
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Goal 7
5 Shots off Goal 5
4 Blocked Shots 6
12 Shots insidebox 7
1 Shots outsidebox 11
3 Goalkeeper Saves 3
388 Total passes 498
327 Passes accurate 439
1.70 expected_goals 1.39
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Coventry
Formation
Watford
C. Rushworth
C. Rushworth
K. Kesler-Hayden
K. Kesler-Hayden
L. Woolfenden
L. Woolfenden
J. Latibeaudiere
J. Latibeaudiere
J. Bidwell
🎯
J. Bidwell
V. Torp
🎯
V. Torp
M. Grimes
M. Grimes
R. Esse
R. Esse
J. Eccles
🎯
J. Eccles
B. Thomas-Asante
B. Thomas-Asante
E. Simms
⚽ 3
E. Simms
E. Selvik
E. Selvik
J. Abankwah
J. Abankwah
M. Pollock
M. Pollock
S. Goglichidze
S. Goglichidze
J. Ngakia
J. Ngakia
N. Mendy
N. Mendy
I. Louza
I. Louza
E. Kayembe
E. Kayembe
O. Maamma
O. Maamma
G. Chakvetadze
G. Chakvetadze
N. Irankunda
N. Irankunda
Coventry 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
19
C. Rushworth
G
20
K. Kesler-Hayden
↓ 70'
D
26
L. Woolfenden
D
22
J. Latibeaudiere
🟨 25'
D
21
J. Bidwell
🎯 19'
D
29
V. Torp
⚽ 85' 🎯 58'
M
6
M. Grimes
M
14
R. Esse
↓ 70'
M
28
J. Eccles
🎯 43' ↓ 70'
M
23
B. Thomas-Asante
↓ 87'
M
9
E. Simms
⚽ 19' ⚽ 43' ⚽ 58' ↓ 79'
F
Substitutes
13
B. Wilson
G
8
J. Allen
🎯 85' ↑ 70'
M
10
E. Mason-Clark
↑ 70'
F
16
F. Onyeka
M
11
H. Wright
↑ 79'
F
4
B. Thomas
D
15
L. Kitching
D
27
M. van Ewijk
↑ 70'
D
33
M. Brau
↑ 87'
D
Watford 3-5-2 (estimated from previous match)
Starting XI
1
E. Selvik
G
25
J. Abankwah
D
6
M. Pollock
D
3
S. Goglichidze
↓ 62'
D
2
J. Ngakia
M
23
N. Mendy
↓ 62'
M
10
I. Louza
↓ 82' 🟨 25'
M
39
E. Kayembe
M
42
O. Maamma
↓ 82'
M
8
G. Chakvetadze
↓ 62'
F
66
N. Irankunda
🟨 78'
F
Substitutes
12
N. Baxter
G
7
T. Ince
↑ 82'
M
16
M. Bola
↑ 62'
D
15
E. Bove
↑ 62'
M
4
K. Keben
D
9
L. Kjerrumgaard
F
43
J. Grieves
↑ 62'
F
20
M. Doumbia
↑ 82'
F
17
P. Ekwah
M
Last matches: Watford
14.07.26
Fri
Watford
Barnet
2
2
D
11.07.26
Fri
Watford
Boreham Wood
1
2
L
25.04.26
Cha
Watford
Middlesbrough
1
5
L
21.04.26
Cha
Watford
West Brom
0
3
L
18.04.26
Cha
Watford
Sheffield Utd
0
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Watford
Oxford United
0
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Watford
Charlton
1
1
D
03.04.26
Cha
Watford
QPR
1
2
L
21.03.26
Cha
Watford
Leicester
0
0
D
17.03.26
Cha
Watford
Wrexham
3
1
W
14.03.26
Cha
Watford
Stoke City
1
3
L
10.03.26
Cha
Watford
Sheffield Wednesday
1
1
D
27.02.26
Cha
Watford
Bristol City
2
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Watford
Ipswich
0
2
L
21.02.26
Cha
Watford
Derby
2
0
W
14.02.26
Cha
Watford
Preston
2
2
D
07.02.26
Cha
Watford
Southampton
0
1
L
03.02.26
Cha
Watford
Hull City
0
0
D
31.01.26
Cha
Watford
Swansea
0
2
L
24.01.26
Cha
Watford
Blackburn
1
1
D
Last matches: Coventry
18.07.26
Fri
Coventry
Northampton
0
0
D
26.04.26
Cha
Coventry
Wrexham
3
1
W
21.04.26
Cha
Coventry
Portsmouth
5
1
W
17.04.26
Cha
Coventry
Blackburn
1
1
D
11.04.26
Cha
Coventry
Sheffield Wednesday
0
0
D
06.04.26
Cha
Coventry
Hull City
0
0
D
03.04.26
Cha
Coventry
Derby
3
2
W
21.03.26
Cha
Coventry
Swansea
3
0
W
14.03.26
Cha
Coventry
Southampton
1
2
L
11.03.26
Cha
Coventry
Preston
3
0
W
07.03.26
Cha
Coventry
Bristol City
2
0
W
28.02.26
Cha
Coventry
Stoke City
2
1
W
25.02.26
Cha
Coventry
Sheffield Utd
2
1
W
21.02.26
Cha
Coventry
West Brom
2
0
W
16.02.26
Cha
Coventry
Middlesbrough
3
1
W
07.02.26
Cha
Coventry
Oxford United
0
0
D
31.01.26
Cha
Coventry
QPR
1
2
L
26.01.26
Cha
Coventry
Norwich
1
2
L
20.01.26
Cha
Coventry
Millwall
2
1
W
17.01.26
Cha
Coventry
Leicester
2
1
W
H2H: Watford vs Coventry
02.05.26
H2H
Watford
Coventry
0
4
L
25.10.25
H2H
Coventry
Watford
3
1
L
25.01.25
H2H
Coventry
Watford
2
1
L
14.09.24
H2H
Watford
Coventry
1
1
D
09.03.24
H2H
Watford
Coventry
1
2
L
02.09.23
H2H
Coventry
Watford
3
3
D
10.04.23
H2H
Coventry
Watford
2
2
D
05.11.22
H2H
Watford
Coventry
0
1
L
06.02.21
H2H
Coventry
Watford
0
0
D
07.11.20
H2H
Watford
Coventry
3
2
W
27.08.19
H2H
Watford
Coventry
3
0
W
17.03.12
H2H
Watford
Coventry
0
0
D
20.08.11
H2H
Coventry
Watford
0
0
D
Last matches: Watford
18.04.26
Cha
Watford
Sheffield Utd
0
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Watford
Charlton
1
1
D
21.03.26
Cha
Watford
Leicester
0
0
D
17.03.26
Cha
Watford
Wrexham
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Watford
Ipswich
0
2
L
21.02.26
Cha
Watford
Derby
2
0
W
31.01.26
Cha
Watford
Swansea
0
2
L
21.01.26
Cha
Watford
Portsmouth
1
1
D
17.01.26
Cha
Watford
Millwall
0
2
L
01.01.26
Cha
Watford
Birmingham
3
0
W
20.12.25
Cha
Watford
Stoke City
1
0
W
09.12.25
Cha
Watford
Sheffield Wednesday
1
1
D
06.12.25
Cha
Watford
Norwich
3
2
W
25.11.25
Cha
Watford
Preston
1
1
D
07.11.25
Cha
Watford
Bristol City
1
1
D
01.11.25
Cha
Watford
Middlesbrough
3
0
W
22.10.25
Cha
Watford
West Brom
2
1
W
04.10.25
Cha
Watford
Oxford United
2
1
W
27.09.25
Cha
Watford
Hull City
2
1
W
13.09.25
Cha
Watford
Blackburn
0
1
L
H2H at home: Watford
02.05.26
H2H
Watford
Coventry
0
4
L
14.09.24
H2H
Watford
Coventry
1
1
D
09.03.24
H2H
Watford
Coventry
1
2
L
05.11.22
H2H
Watford
Coventry
0
1
L
07.11.20
H2H
Watford
Coventry
3
2
W
27.08.19
H2H
Watford
Coventry
3
0
W
17.03.12
H2H
Watford
Coventry
0
0
D
Last matches: Coventry
18.07.26
Fri
Coventry
Northampton
0
0
D
17.04.26
Cha
Coventry
Blackburn
1
1
D
06.04.26
Cha
Coventry
Hull City
0
0
D
21.03.26
Cha
Coventry
Swansea
3
0
W
07.03.26
Cha
Coventry
Bristol City
2
0
W
25.02.26
Cha
Coventry
Sheffield Utd
2
1
W
21.02.26
Cha
Coventry
West Brom
2
0
W
31.01.26
Cha
Coventry
QPR
1
2
L
26.01.26
Cha
Coventry
Norwich
1
2
L
10.01.26
FA
Coventry
Stoke City
0
1
L
04.01.26
Cha
Coventry
Birmingham
2
3
L
01.01.26
Cha
Coventry
Charlton
1
1
D
20.12.25
Cha
Coventry
Southampton
1
1
D
09.12.25
Cha
Coventry
Preston
1
1
D
06.12.25
Cha
Coventry
Ipswich
0
3
L
25.11.25
Cha
Coventry
Middlesbrough
4
2
W
08.11.25
Cha
Coventry
Stoke City
1
0
W
31.10.25
Cha
Coventry
Wrexham
2
3
L
21.10.25
Cha
Coventry
Portsmouth
2
1
W
04.10.25
Cha
Coventry
Sheffield Wednesday
5
0
W
H2H away: Coventry
02.05.26
H2H
Watford
Coventry
0
4
W
14.09.24
H2H
Watford
Coventry
1
1
D
09.03.24
H2H
Watford
Coventry
1
2
W
05.11.22
H2H
Watford
Coventry
0
1
W
07.11.20
H2H
Watford
Coventry
3
2
L
27.08.19
H2H
Watford
Coventry
3
0
L
17.03.12
H2H
Watford
Coventry
0
0
D

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation