Login Register
IRELAND › PREMIER DIVISION
23.10.2026 18:45
Regional Sports Centre

Waterford vs Drogheda United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 67.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
67.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Waterford Win 46.9%
Draw 20.7%
Drogheda United Win 32.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Waterford1.49
Drogheda United1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Waterford Waterford
WWDLW
57 GF / 64 GA
Drogheda United Drogheda United
WLDWL
45 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
1.54
24
BTTS Yes
23
20
Over 2.5
19
4.03
Shots on Goal
3.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Waterford Waterford 39 matches
Drogheda United Drogheda United 37 matches
Waterford Statistic Drogheda United
12 Wins 10
13 Draws 12
14 Losses 15
57 Goals For 45
64 Goals Against 57
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 1.54
24 BTTS Yes 23
31 Over 1.5 29
20 Over 2.5 19
17 Over 3.5 12
7 Clean Sheets 10
11 Failed To Score 8
4.03 Shots On Goal 3.3
13.13 Total Shots 10.21
5.41 Corners 3.94
37.4% Ball Possession 38.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Waterford expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Drogheda United in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Drogheda United having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Drogheda United. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Drogheda United arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Waterford Analysis

From their first 32 matches, Waterford have collected 34 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 13 draws, and 12 losses, while the 44:54 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Lonergan (9 goals), P. Amond (7 goals), J. Mahon (4 goals), with creative support from Benny Couto (7 assists), T. Lonergan (4 assists), E. McLaughlin (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 9 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Drogheda United Analysis

With 34 points from 33 games and a place of 9, Drogheda United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 39:54, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Doyle (4 goals), W. Davis (4 goals), B. Kavanagh (3 goals), with creative support from B. Kavanagh (4 assists), E. Agbaje (2 assists), T. Oluwa (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Waterford won 6 times, Drogheda United won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:24 from Waterford's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.4%)
Predicted formations: Waterford 4-4-2 / Drogheda United 3-5-2
H2H summary: Waterford wins 6, draws 4, Drogheda United wins 5

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 19 8 6 54:33 21 65
W W W L D
2 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
3 33 17 8 8 58:40 18 59
L W W W W
4 33 10 13 10 47:46 1 43
W D W L L
5 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
6 33 10 11 12 50:55 -5 41
L L L D W
7 32 9 11 12 42:48 -6 38
D L W L D
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 33 8 10 15 39:54 -15 34
L L W W L
10 33 5 8 20 25:59 -34 23
L L L L L
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation