IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
15.05.2026 18:45
Regional Sports Centre
Referee: D. Carolan
Waterford
Match Timeline
Derry City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
19'
K. Santos · Assist: J. Clarke
Derry City
🔄
25'
J. Houston ↔ D. McMenamy
Waterford
🟨
34'
Luke Heeney
Waterford
🟨
38'
Benny Couto
Waterford
🟨
42'
Adam O'Reilly
Derry City
🟨
59'
James Olayinka
Derry City
59'
T. Lonergan
Waterford
🔄
60'
D. Akinyemi ↔ J. Thomas
Derry City
🟨
62'
Jamie Stott
Derry City
🔄
71'
K. Santos ↔ C. Dummigan
Derry City
81'
K. Long · Assist: B. Couto
Waterford
🔄
83'
M. Duffy ↔ D. Markey
Derry City
🔄
83'
J. Clarke ↔ H. Rylah
Derry City
🔄
86'
C. Noonan ↔ J. Voilas
Waterford
🔄
90+1'
T. Lonergan ↔ C. Barrett
Waterford
90'
H. Rylah · Assist: B. Fleming
Derry City

Waterford vs Derry City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 71.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 47.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
71.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
47.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Waterford Win 22.1%
Draw 6.5%
Derry City Win 71.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Waterford1.2
Derry City1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Waterford Waterford
WWDLW
26 GF / 42 GA
Derry City Derry City
WLDWL
20 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.91
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
13
BTTS Yes
11
10
Over 2.5
9
3.2
Shots on Goal
4.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Waterford Waterford 22 matches
Derry City Derry City 18 matches
Waterford Statistic Derry City
5 Wins 4
6 Draws 7
11 Losses 7
26 Goals For 20
42 Goals Against 22
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.91 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
13 BTTS Yes 11
17 Over 1.5 11
10 Over 2.5 9
9 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 3
8 Failed To Score 6
3.2 Shots On Goal 4.75
11.6 Total Shots 13.44
5.27 Corners 6.25
40.3% Ball Possession 53.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Derry City. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Derry City carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 19 points while Waterford sit 10 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Waterford expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Derry City in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Derry City having the stronger overall control. Waterford have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford sit 10 with 6 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 13:32 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on T. Lonergan (4 goals), John Mahon (3 goals), P. Amond (3 goals), with creative support from J. Voilas (2 assists), Evan McLaughlin (2 assists), T. Lonergan (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Derry City Analysis

Placed 5 with 19 points from 16 outings, Derry City continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, while the 19:19 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Duffy (5 goals), James Clarke (4 goals), D. Akinyemi (3 goals), with creative support from Ben Doherty (2 assists), J. McClean (2 assists), M. Duffy (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Waterford won 4 times, Derry City won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:34 from Waterford's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.5%)
Predicted formations: Waterford 5-3-2 / Derry City 4-3-3
H2H summary: Waterford wins 4, draws 2, Derry City wins 9

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 16 7 5 46:27 19 55
D W D W W
2 29 14 8 7 45:25 20 50
L W W D D
3 29 14 8 7 50:34 16 50
W W L D W
4 29 10 10 9 46:45 1 40
W L L D D
5 27 8 11 8 37:39 -2 35
D L L W D
6 29 7 13 9 41:40 1 34
D L W D L
7 28 8 10 10 36:42 -6 34
D W D D D
8 29 7 11 11 39:48 -9 32
W D W W D
9 29 6 10 13 33:48 -15 28
L L D D D
10 29 5 8 16 23:48 -25 23
L D L D D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation