Waterford vs Derry City Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
71.4%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
26%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.2%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 0-2 |
-
|
- |
Waterford
Derry City
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Waterford
22 matches
Derry City
18 matches
| Waterford | Statistic | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wins | 4 |
| 6 | Draws | 7 |
| 11 | Losses | 7 |
| 26 | Goals For | 20 |
| 42 | Goals Against | 22 |
| 1.18 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.11 |
| 1.91 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.22 |
| 13 | BTTS Yes | 11 |
| 17 | Over 1.5 | 11 |
| 10 | Over 2.5 | 9 |
| 9 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 2 | Clean Sheets | 3 |
| 8 | Failed To Score | 6 |
| 3.2 | Shots On Goal | 4.75 |
| 11.6 | Total Shots | 13.44 |
| 5.27 | Corners | 6.25 |
| 40.3% | Ball Possession | 53.7% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Derry City. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Derry City carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 19 points while Waterford sit 10 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Waterford expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Derry City in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Derry City having the stronger overall control. Waterford have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.
Waterford sit 10 with 6 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 13:32 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on T. Lonergan (4 goals), John Mahon (3 goals), P. Amond (3 goals), with creative support from J. Voilas (2 assists), Evan McLaughlin (2 assists), T. Lonergan (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Placed 5 with 19 points from 16 outings, Derry City continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, while the 19:19 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Duffy (5 goals), James Clarke (4 goals), D. Akinyemi (3 goals), with creative support from Ben Doherty (2 assists), J. McClean (2 assists), M. Duffy (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Waterford won 4 times, Derry City won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:34 from Waterford's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 46:27 | 19 | 55 |
D
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45:25 | 20 | 50 |
L
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 3 | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 50:34 | 16 | 50 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 29 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 46:45 | 1 | 40 |
W
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 5 | 27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 37:39 | -2 | 35 |
D
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 6 |
Derry City
Away
|
29 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 41:40 | 1 | 34 |
D
L
W
D
L
|
| 7 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 36:42 | -6 | 34 |
D
W
D
D
D
|
|
| 8 |
Waterford
Home
|
29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 39:48 | -9 | 32 |
W
D
W
W
D
|
| 9 | 29 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 33:48 | -15 | 28 |
L
L
D
D
D
|
|
| 10 | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 23:48 | -25 | 23 |
L
D
L
D
D
|