URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 28.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 28%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
28.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
28%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Wanderers Win 64.1%
Draw 12.6%
Danubio Win 23.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Wanderers1.34
Danubio1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Wanderers Wanderers
WWDLW
22 GF / 24 GA
Danubio Danubio
WLDWL
19 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
1.12
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
10
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Wanderers Wanderers 18 matches
Danubio Danubio 17 matches
Wanderers Statistic Danubio
7 Wins 4
4 Draws 6
7 Losses 7
22 Goals For 19
24 Goals Against 26
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.12
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
10 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 14
10 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Danubio. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Wanderers have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Wanderers expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Danubio in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Danubio having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Wanderers Analysis

Wanderers sit 10 with 20 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 2 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 16:21 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Luna (4 goals), F. Labandeira (3 goals), J. Alberti (2 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Danubio Analysis

From their first 15 matches, Danubio have collected 18 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, while the 17:21 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Cabrera (4 goals), S. Fernandez (4 goals), M. Ferreira (3 goals), with creative support from M. Jourdan (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Wanderers won 8 times, Danubio won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:13 from Wanderers's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.4%)
Predicted formations: Wanderers 5-3-2 / Danubio 4-3-3
H2H summary: Wanderers wins 8, draws 4, Danubio wins 3
Last matches: Wanderers
31.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
5
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
0
0
D
08.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
1
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Boston River
1
4
L
28.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro
3
0
W
25.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
2
1
W
13.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
0
2
L
06.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Central Espanol
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
0
4
L
13.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
08.11.25
Pri
Wanderers
CA River Plate
0
4
L
31.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Boston River
2
2
D
Last matches: Danubio
30.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
3
L
09.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Central Espanol
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
30.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
26.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
1
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
4
1
W
07.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
0
4
L
15.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
2
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
1
0
W
08.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
02.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
2
1
W
26.10.25
Pri
Danubio
CA River Plate
0
1
L
H2H: Wanderers vs Danubio
21.03.26
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
2
1
W
06.09.25
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
0
2
L
16.03.25
H2H
Danubio
Wanderers
2
2
D
28.09.24
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
2
2
D
24.03.24
H2H
Danubio
Wanderers
0
2
W
07.03.24
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
0
1
L
29.11.23
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
3
0
W
03.06.23
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
1
1
D
29.04.23
H2H
Danubio
Wanderers
0
2
W
10.09.22
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
0
3
L
02.04.22
H2H
Danubio
Wanderers
0
0
D
21.01.21
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
2
0
W
23.02.20
H2H
Danubio
Wanderers
0
1
W
21.11.19
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
2
1
W
18.05.19
H2H
Danubio
Wanderers
0
2
W
Last matches: Wanderers
24.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
08.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
28.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
2
1
W
06.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
0
4
L
07.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
08.11.25
Pri
Wanderers
CA River Plate
0
4
L
31.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Boston River
2
2
D
26.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
0
0
D
26.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro
0
1
L
06.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
0
2
L
22.08.25
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
0
1
L
10.08.25
Pri
Wanderers
Plaza Colonia
0
0
D
H2H at home: Wanderers
21.03.26
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
2
1
W
06.09.25
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
0
2
L
28.09.24
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
2
2
D
07.03.24
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
0
1
L
29.11.23
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
3
0
W
03.06.23
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
1
1
D
10.09.22
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
0
3
L
21.01.21
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
2
0
W
21.11.19
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
2
1
W
Last matches: Danubio
18.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
3
L
02.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Central Espanol
2
2
D
30.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
1
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
0
4
L
09.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
1
0
W
02.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
2
1
W
17.10.25
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
0
0
D
05.10.25
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
0
2
L
19.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
06.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
2
0
W
24.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
0
1
L
18.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
03.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
H2H away: Danubio
21.03.26
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
2
1
L
06.09.25
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
0
2
W
28.09.24
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
2
2
D
07.03.24
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
0
1
W
29.11.23
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
3
0
L
03.06.23
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
1
1
D
10.09.22
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
0
3
W
21.01.21
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
2
0
L
21.11.19
H2H
Wanderers
Danubio
2
1
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D W D W
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
W W L D W
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
W W W W W
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D L D L
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
W L W L D
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W D W D L
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
W L L W L
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D W D W
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
L W D L W
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W L W L L
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L L W D D
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
L W L L D
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L W L W L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W W D D W
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
L L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
L L L D D