FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
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Lemonsoft Stadion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.7%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
VPS Win 60.7%
Draw 4%
Inter Turku Win 35.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
VPS1.17
Inter Turku1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
VPS VPS
WWDLW
28 GF / 21 GA
Inter Turku Inter Turku
WLDWL
31 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
13
BTTS Yes
13
9
Over 2.5
9
1.87
Shots on Goal
1.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VPS VPS 21 matches
Inter Turku Inter Turku 24 matches
VPS Statistic Inter Turku
8 Wins 11
7 Draws 9
6 Losses 4
28 Goals For 31
21 Goals Against 22
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
13 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 18
9 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 6
1.87 Shots On Goal 1.67
4.2 Total Shots 4.56
1.87 Corners 2.11
27.9% Ball Possession 24.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Inter Turku. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with VPS expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Inter Turku in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Inter Turku having the stronger overall control.

VPS Analysis

VPS come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 27 points from 17 matches. The record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 24:16 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through L. Smyth (3 goals), Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi (1 goals), with creative support from J. Turfkruier (1 assists), K. Kouassivi-Benissan (1 assists), J. Muzinga (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Inter Turku Analysis

Placed 2 with 31 points from 16 outings, Inter Turku continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 23:12 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Clinton Jephta (1 goals), Alie Conteh (1 goals), J. Yli-Kokko (1 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, VPS won 4 times, Inter Turku won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:24 from VPS's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.29 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: VPS 3-4-3 / Inter Turku 4-3-3
H2H summary: VPS wins 4, draws 4, Inter Turku wins 6
Last matches: VPS
25.07.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
3
L
18.07.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
2
L
10.07.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
W
17.06.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
22.05.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
18.05.26
Vei
VPS
Lahti
1
1
D
09.05.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
04.04.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
14.03.26
Fri
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
Last matches: Inter Turku
26.07.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Gnistan
1
2
L
22.07.26
UEF
Inter Turku
Başakşehir
1
1
D
19.07.26
Vei
Inter Turku
FF Jaro
0
0
D
16.07.26
UEF
Inter Turku
FK Sarajevo
2
1
W
09.07.26
UEF
Inter Turku
FK Sarajevo
1
1
D
27.06.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
2
0
W
23.06.26
Vei
Inter Turku
SJK
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
3
3
D
13.06.26
Vei
Inter Turku
AC Oulu
0
0
D
30.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
KuPS
1
1
D
23.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Turku PS
2
1
W
20.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Ilves
3
1
W
16.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
SJK
3
1
W
09.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
FF Jaro
2
0
W
05.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Gnistan
0
2
L
29.04.26
Vei
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
25.04.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
1
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Lahti
2
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Ilves
2
1
W
04.04.26
Vei
Inter Turku
VPS
0
0
D
H2H: VPS vs Inter Turku
30.06.26
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
2
3
L
04.04.26
H2H
Inter Turku
VPS
0
0
D
31.08.25
H2H
Inter Turku
VPS
2
1
L
19.04.25
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
0
2
L
28.06.24
H2H
Inter Turku
VPS
3
1
L
27.05.24
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
3
1
W
29.09.23
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
1
1
D
12.07.23
H2H
Inter Turku
VPS
0
2
W
01.07.23
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
3
0
W
18.03.23
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
19.10.22
H2H
Inter Turku
VPS
1
5
W
13.08.22
H2H
Inter Turku
VPS
1
1
D
19.05.22
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
1
2
L
07.03.20
H2H
Inter Turku
VPS
7
1
L
25.06.19
H2H
Inter Turku
VPS
1
1
D
Last matches: VPS
10.07.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
W
23.06.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
09.05.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
08.03.26
Fri
VPS
Umeå FC
2
1
W
H2H at home: VPS
30.06.26
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
2
3
L
19.04.25
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
0
2
L
27.05.24
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
3
1
W
29.09.23
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
1
1
D
01.07.23
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
3
0
W
18.03.23
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
19.05.22
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
1
2
L
Last matches: Inter Turku
22.07.26
UEF
Inter Turku
Başakşehir
1
1
D
19.07.26
Vei
Inter Turku
FF Jaro
0
0
D
09.07.26
UEF
Inter Turku
FK Sarajevo
1
1
D
27.06.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
2
0
W
17.06.26
Vei
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
3
3
D
30.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
KuPS
1
1
D
20.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Ilves
3
1
W
16.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
SJK
3
1
W
05.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Gnistan
0
2
L
18.04.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Lahti
2
0
W
28.03.26
Fri
Inter Turku
Sirius
1
0
W
08.03.26
Fri
Inter Turku
ODD Ballklubb
0
1
L
H2H away: Inter Turku
30.06.26
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
2
3
W
19.04.25
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
0
2
W
27.05.24
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
3
1
L
29.09.23
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
1
1
D
01.07.23
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
3
0
L
18.03.23
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
19.05.22
H2H
VPS
Inter Turku
1
2
W

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 10 6 1 32:16 16 36
W W W W W
2 17 8 7 2 24:14 10 31
L D W D D
3 17 8 4 5 28:20 8 28
W W L L W
4 17 8 4 5 27:21 6 28
W W W L D
5
VPS Home
17 7 6 4 24:16 8 27
L L W W D
6 17 8 3 6 21:21 0 27
D L L D L
7 17 6 4 7 20:16 4 22
L W W W D
8 17 6 4 7 20:20 0 22
L L W L W
9 17 6 4 7 29:30 -1 22
W W L D L
10 17 3 6 8 17:33 -16 15
W D W L D
11 17 3 5 9 19:27 -8 14
L L L W D
12 17 0 5 12 9:36 -27 5
D L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)