FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Lemonsoft Stadion
Referee: A. Hajizadeh
VPS
Match Timeline
HJK Helsinki
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
L. Lappalainen · Assist: A. Ring
HJK Helsinki
🟨
25'
Emmanuel Okereke
VPS
🔄
46'
T. Pukki ↔ M. Borchers
HJK Helsinki
🔄
54'
M. Markovic ↔ J. Ost
HJK Helsinki
🔄
54'
L. Lappalainen ↔ L. Moller
HJK Helsinki
🟨
57'
Yassin Daoussi
VPS
64'
L. Smyth · Assist: J. Turfkruier
VPS
🔄
65'
Y. Daoussi ↔ S. Lindholm
VPS
🔄
65'
J. Muzinga ↔ J. Vahtera
VPS
🟨
71'
Jesse Öst
HJK Helsinki
🟨
72'
Simon Lindholm
VPS
76'
S. Lindholm
VPS
🔄
77'
J. Kallinen ↔ M. Kirilov
HJK Helsinki
🟨
79'
Antti-Ville Räisänen
VPS
🔄
81'
B. Lyons-Foster ↔ T. Mero
HJK Helsinki
🔄
88'
L. Smyth ↔ O. Ogunniyi
VPS
🟨
90+5'
Mamadou Jalloh
VPS

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
72.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
VPS Win 35.6%
Draw 27.2%
HJK Helsinki Win 37.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
VPS0.95
HJK Helsinki1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
VPS VPS
WWDLW
10 GF / 10 GA
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
WLDWL
18 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
0.91
Average Goals Scored
1.5
0.91
Average Goals Conceded
1
6
BTTS Yes
5
3
Over 2.5
6
1.29
Shots on Goal
2.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VPS VPS 11 matches
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 12 matches
VPS Statistic HJK Helsinki
3 Wins 5
5 Draws 3
3 Losses 4
10 Goals For 18
10 Goals Against 12
0.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
0.91 Avg Goals Conceded 1
6 BTTS Yes 5
6 Over 1.5 8
3 Over 2.5 6
1 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 2
1.29 Shots On Goal 2.38
3.43 Total Shots 6.88
2.57 Corners 2.5
23.9% Ball Possession 28.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward HJK Helsinki. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with VPS expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and HJK Helsinki in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HJK Helsinki having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

VPS Analysis

VPS sit 6 with 10 points after 7 league matches. The record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 6:5 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Luka Smyth (2 goals), J. Muzinga (1 goals), P. Lima (1 goals), with creative support from Jayden Turfkruier (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

HJK Helsinki Analysis

HJK Helsinki come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 12 points from 8 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 11:6 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. Pukki (3 goals), M. Borchers (2 goals), A. Cicale (1 goals), with creative support from D. Ezeh (2 assists), L. Lingman (2 assists), P. Mentu (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, VPS won 3 times, HJK Helsinki won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:25 from VPS's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (72.8%)
Predicted formations: VPS 3-4-1-2 / HJK Helsinki 4-3-3
H2H summary: VPS wins 3, draws 4, HJK Helsinki wins 8

Lineups

VPS
Formation
HJK Helsinki
M. Jalloh
M. Jalloh
L. Mane
L. Mane
E. Okereke
E. Okereke
M. Niemi
M. Niemi
K. Kouassivi-Benissan
K. Kouassivi-Benissan
A. Raisanen
A. Raisanen
P. Lima
P. Lima
J. Turfkruier
🎯
J. Turfkruier
Y. Daoussi
Y. Daoussi
J. Muzinga
J. Muzinga
L. Smyth
L. Smyth
M. Markovic
M. Markovic
M. Ylitolva
M. Ylitolva
E. Levealahti
E. Levealahti
V. Tikkanen
V. Tikkanen
B. Lyons-Foster
B. Lyons-Foster
A. Ring
🎯
A. Ring
L. Lingman
L. Lingman
J. Kallinen
J. Kallinen
L. Lappalainen
L. Lappalainen
T. Pukki
T. Pukki
A. Cicale
A. Cicale
VPS 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
41
M. Jalloh
🟨 90+5'
G
2
L. Mane
D
6
E. Okereke
🟨 25'
D
23
M. Niemi
D
27
K. Kouassivi-Benissan
M
34
A. Raisanen
🟨 79'
M
8
P. Lima
M
7
J. Turfkruier
🎯 64'
M
24
Y. Daoussi
↓ 65' 🟨 57'
M
11
J. Muzinga
↓ 65'
F
15
L. Smyth
⚽ 64' ↓ 88'
F
Substitutes
12
L. Vayrynen
G
14
S. Lindholm
⚽ 76' ↑ 65' 🟨 72'
M
26
R. Forsbacka
M
33
A. Kuek
30
J. Vahtera
↑ 65'
M
5
V. Ronnberg
D
13
O. Ogunniyi
↑ 88'
D
35
O. Keturi
F
HJK Helsinki 4-3-3
Starting XI
44
M. Markovic
↓ 54'
G
28
M. Ylitolva
D
24
E. Levealahti
D
6
V. Tikkanen
D
2
B. Lyons-Foster
↓ 81'
D
4
A. Ring
🎯 6'
M
10
L. Lingman
M
15
J. Kallinen
↓ 77'
M
26
L. Lappalainen
⚽ 6' ↓ 54'
M
20
T. Pukki
↓ 46'
F
7
A. Cicale
M
Substitutes
1
J. Ost
↑ 54' 🟨 71'
G
14
L. Montano
D
19
D. Ezeh
F
18
T. Mero
↑ 81'
M
61
V. Konttas
D
9
M. Borchers
↑ 46'
F
22
L. Moller
↑ 54'
M
17
M. Kirilov
↑ 77'
M
Last matches: VPS
30.05.26
Vei
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
18.05.26
Vei
VPS
Lahti
1
1
D
09.05.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
04.04.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
14.03.26
Fri
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
08.03.26
Fri
VPS
Umeå FC
2
1
W
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
30.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Turku PS
0
1
L
04.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
0
W
29.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
SJK
3
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Djurgardens IF
2
4
L
21.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
SJK
1
0
W
10.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Hammarby FF
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
2
2
D
24.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
17.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
5
0
W
10.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
0
4
L
H2H: VPS vs HJK Helsinki
22.05.26
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
05.07.25
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
2
L
26.04.25
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
3
1
L
20.09.24
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
01.09.24
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
3
L
17.05.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
2
W
08.10.23
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
3
2
W
19.04.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
4
0
L
15.04.23
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
16.07.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
3
1
L
13.06.22
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
0
D
18.04.22
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
27.07.19
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
1
D
07.05.19
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
07.10.18
H2H
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
0
L
Last matches: VPS
09.05.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
08.03.26
Fri
VPS
Umeå FC
2
1
W
H2H at home: VPS
22.05.26
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
05.07.25
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
2
L
20.09.24
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
01.09.24
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
3
L
08.10.23
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
3
2
W
15.04.23
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
13.06.22
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
0
D
18.04.22
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
07.05.19
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
08.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Turku PS
0
1
L
29.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Djurgardens IF
2
4
L
24.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
10.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
0
4
L
H2H away: HJK Helsinki
22.05.26
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
L
05.07.25
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
2
W
20.09.24
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
01.09.24
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
3
W
08.10.23
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
3
2
L
15.04.23
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
1
W
13.06.22
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
0
D
18.04.22
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
0
1
W
07.05.19
H2H
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 3 1 17:8 9 24
?
2 10 7 0 3 16:8 8 21
?
3 11 5 5 1 16:10 6 20
?
4 10 4 3 3 13:8 5 15
?
5 9 4 3 2 11:8 3 15
?
6
VPS Home
9 3 4 2 8:7 1 13
?
7 9 3 2 4 12:10 2 11
?
8 9 3 2 4 13:15 -2 11
?
9 10 2 3 5 13:21 -8 9
?
10 10 1 4 5 8:17 -9 7
?
11 9 1 3 5 8:14 -6 6
?
12 9 0 4 5 5:14 -9 4
?