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BRAZIL › SERIE A
07.09.2026 23:00
Estádio Manoel Barradas
Referee: Savio Pereira Sampaio, Brazil
Vitoria
Match Timeline
Gremio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
36'
Pedro Gabriel
Gremio
🟨
38'
Cristian Pavón
Gremio
🔄
46'
Pedro Gabriel ↔ Caio Paulista
Gremio
🟨
48'
Erick
Vitoria
🟨
48'
Caio Paulista
Gremio
🟨
55'
Caique Gonçalves
Vitoria
🟨
59'
Erick Noriega
Gremio
⚽
63'
Renê Sousa · Assist: Mateusinho
Vitoria
🔄
69'
Mathias Villasanti ↔ José Enamorado
Gremio
🔄
69'
Cristian Pavón ↔ Juan Nardoni
Gremio
🔄
69'
Erick Noriega ↔ Danilo Barbosa
Gremio
🔄
72'
Erick ↔ Marinho
Vitoria
🔄
78'
Carlos Vinícius ↔ Martin Braithwaite
Gremio
🟨
79'
Gustavo Martins
Gremio
🔄
81'
Caique Gonçalves ↔ Edenilson
Vitoria
🔄
82'
Matheuzinho ↔ Tomás Pochettino
Vitoria
🔄
82'
Diego Tarzia ↔ Fabrício Santos
Vitoria
🔄
90'
Renê Sousa ↔ Renato Kayzer
Vitoria

Vitoria vs Gremio Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.1%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Vitoria Win 60.1%
Draw 11.5%
Gremio Win 28.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitoria1.11
Gremio1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitoria Vitoria
WWDLW
24 GF / 37 GA
Gremio Gremio
WLDWL
33 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
0.96
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
9
BTTS Yes
17
9
Over 2.5
14
3.88
Shots on Goal
3.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitoria Vitoria 25 matches
Gremio Gremio 27 matches
Vitoria Statistic Gremio
8 Wins 9
5 Draws 7
12 Losses 11
24 Goals For 33
37 Goals Against 36
0.96 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
9 BTTS Yes 17
20 Over 1.5 21
9 Over 2.5 14
6 Over 3.5 5
9 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 8
3.88 Shots On Goal 3.58
11.48 Total Shots 11.33
4.36 Corners 4.46
44.8% Ball Possession 49.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vitoria expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gremio in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gremio having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gremio. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Vitoria Analysis

Vitoria sit 13 with 29 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 24:37 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Renê Sousa (5 goals), Renato Kayzer (4 goals), Erick (3 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), Diego Tarzia (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gremio Analysis

With 25 points from 23 games and a place of 15, Gremio still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 24:31, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), Cristian Pavón (2 goals), Gustavo Martins (2 goals), with creative support from Cristian Pavón (4 assists), Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria won 2 times, Gremio won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:25 from Vitoria's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.5%)
Predicted formations: Vitoria 4-2-3-1 / Gremio 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Vitoria 12, Gremio 4
H2H summary: Vitoria wins 2, draws 4, Gremio wins 9

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B