Vitoria vs Gremio Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
60.1%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
62.8%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
64.5%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Vitoria
Gremio
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Vitoria
25 matches
Gremio
27 matches
| Vitoria | Statistic | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wins | 9 |
| 5 | Draws | 7 |
| 12 | Losses | 11 |
| 24 | Goals For | 33 |
| 37 | Goals Against | 36 |
| 0.96 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.22 |
| 1.48 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.33 |
| 9 | BTTS Yes | 17 |
| 20 | Over 1.5 | 21 |
| 9 | Over 2.5 | 14 |
| 6 | Over 3.5 | 5 |
| 9 | Clean Sheets | 5 |
| 9 | Failed To Score | 8 |
| 3.88 | Shots On Goal | 3.58 |
| 11.48 | Total Shots | 11.33 |
| 4.36 | Corners | 4.46 |
| 44.8% | Ball Possession | 49.7% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vitoria expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gremio in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gremio having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gremio. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.
Vitoria sit 13 with 29 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 5 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 24:37 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Renê Sousa (5 goals), Renato Kayzer (4 goals), Erick (3 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), Diego Tarzia (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
With 25 points from 23 games and a place of 15, Gremio still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 24:31, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), Cristian Pavón (2 goals), Gustavo Martins (2 goals), with creative support from Cristian Pavón (4 assists), Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria won 2 times, Gremio won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:25 from Vitoria's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 58:25 | 33 | 64 |
W
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 52:22 | 30 | 63 |
W
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 49:35 | 14 | 53 |
W
D
W
D
L
|
|
| 4 | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48:37 | 11 | 51 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44:36 | 8 | 49 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 46:44 | 2 | 48 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 7 | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41:35 | 6 | 47 |
W
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 8 | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 46:45 | 1 | 42 |
L
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 38:35 | 3 | 40 |
W
D
L
L
D
|
|
| 10 | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 35:35 | 0 | 39 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 11 | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38:48 | -10 | 39 |
D
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 12 |
Vitoria
Home
|
30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 33:44 | -11 | 36 |
L
W
L
D
W
|
| 13 | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 43:48 | -5 | 36 |
D
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 14 | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 36:42 | -6 | 35 |
D
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 15 | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 33 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 16 | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 31:38 | -7 | 32 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 33:38 | -5 | 32 |
D
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 18 |
Gremio
Away
|
30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 32:40 | -8 | 31 |
D
D
D
L
L
|
| 19 | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 33:48 | -15 | 25 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 30:61 | -31 | 18 |
L
L
D
L
W
|