Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
57.1%
|
- | |
| BTTS | No |
65.8%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
80.5%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
83.7%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 1-0 |
-
|
- |
Vitoria
Bahia
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Vitoria
23 matches
Bahia
27 matches
| Vitoria | Statistic | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wins | 10 |
| 5 | Draws | 10 |
| 10 | Losses | 7 |
| 23 | Goals For | 38 |
| 33 | Goals Against | 33 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.41 |
| 1.43 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.22 |
| 8 | BTTS Yes | 17 |
| 18 | Over 1.5 | 22 |
| 8 | Over 2.5 | 13 |
| 6 | Over 3.5 | 6 |
| 9 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 8 | Failed To Score | 5 |
| 4 | Shots On Goal | 4.32 |
| 11.26 | Total Shots | 13.12 |
| 4.22 | Corners | 5.44 |
| 45% | Ball Possession | 53.7% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Bahia's more proactive style and Vitoria's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Bahia. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vitoria expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Bahia in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Vitoria have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.
With 26 points from 22 games and a place of 13, Vitoria still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 22:33, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Renê Sousa (5 goals), Renato Kayzer (4 goals), Erick (2 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), Diego Tarzia (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Bahia sit 6 with 33 points after 22 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses, while the 29:25 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on Luciano Juba (6 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), David Duarte (3 goals), with creative support from Everton Ribeiro (4 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), David Duarte (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria won 3 times, Bahia won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:22 from Vitoria's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.
Vitoria
Botafogo
Vitoria
Flamengo
Vitoria
Palmeiras
Vitoria
Remo
Vitoria
Botafogo
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
Santos
Vitoria
Internacional
Vitoria
RB Bragantino
Vitoria
Fluminense
Vitoria
Coritiba
Vitoria
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
Corinthians
Vitoria
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
Chapecoense-sc
Vitoria
Cruzeiro
Vitoria
Mirassol
Vitoria
Gremio
Vitoria
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
Bahia
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
Fluminense
Bahia
Corinthians
Bahia
Atletico-MG
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
Fluminense
Bahia
Atletico Torque
Bahia
Botafogo
Bahia
Coritiba
Bahia
Gremio
Bahia
Cruzeiro
Bahia
Sao Paulo
Bahia
Santos
Bahia
Flamengo
Bahia
Mirassol
Bahia
Palmeiras
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
Remo
Bahia
RB Bragantino
Vitoria
Botafogo
Vitoria
Palmeiras
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
Internacional
Vitoria
Coritiba
Vitoria
Corinthians
Vitoria
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
Mirassol
Vitoria
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
Flamengo
Vitoria
Remo
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
Bahia
Fluminense
Bahia
Atletico-MG
Bahia
Fluminense
Bahia
Coritiba
Bahia
Sao Paulo
Bahia
Flamengo
Bahia
Mirassol
Bahia
Remo
Bahia
Internacional
Bahia
O'Higgins
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
Corinthians
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40:19 | 21 | 48 |
L
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 2 | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 44:19 | 25 | 45 |
W
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31:20 | 11 | 41 |
D
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 34:28 | 6 | 38 |
W
D
D
D
D
|
|
| 5 | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 32:32 | 0 | 36 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 6 |
Bahia
Away
|
23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32:28 | 4 | 34 |
D
D
D
D
D
|
| 7 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 27:23 | 4 | 32 |
D
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 8 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 30:27 | 3 | 32 |
W
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 9 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 25:22 | 3 | 32 |
L
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 10 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28:30 | -2 | 31 |
D
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35:34 | 1 | 30 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 12 |
Vitoria
Home
|
23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 23:33 | -10 | 29 |
W
L
L
L
D
|
| 13 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27:26 | 1 | 27 |
D
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 32:35 | -3 | 25 |
W
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24:30 | -6 | 25 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 24:28 | -4 | 24 |
D
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 25:35 | -10 | 23 |
L
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 18 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 27:37 | -10 | 23 |
D
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 19 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23:34 | -11 | 22 |
L
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 23:46 | -23 | 11 |
D
L
D
L
L
|