BRAZIL SERIE A
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Barradao
Referee: R. Claus

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.1%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.1%
-
BTTS No
65.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 1-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vitoria Win 57.1%
Draw 5.5%
Bahia Win 37.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitoria1.09
Bahia1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitoria Vitoria
WWDLW
23 GF / 33 GA
Bahia Bahia
WLDWL
38 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.41
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
8
BTTS Yes
17
8
Over 2.5
13
4
Shots on Goal
4.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitoria Vitoria 23 matches
Bahia Bahia 27 matches
Vitoria Statistic Bahia
8 Wins 10
5 Draws 10
10 Losses 7
23 Goals For 38
33 Goals Against 33
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
8 BTTS Yes 17
18 Over 1.5 22
8 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 6
9 Clean Sheets 7
8 Failed To Score 5
4 Shots On Goal 4.32
11.26 Total Shots 13.12
4.22 Corners 5.44
45% Ball Possession 53.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Bahia's more proactive style and Vitoria's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Bahia. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vitoria expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Bahia in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Vitoria have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Vitoria Analysis

With 26 points from 22 games and a place of 13, Vitoria still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 22:33, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Renê Sousa (5 goals), Renato Kayzer (4 goals), Erick (2 goals), with creative support from Erick (4 assists), Gabriel Baralhas (3 assists), Diego Tarzia (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Bahia Analysis

Bahia sit 6 with 33 points after 22 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses, while the 29:25 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on Luciano Juba (6 goals), Everaldo (4 goals), David Duarte (3 goals), with creative support from Everton Ribeiro (4 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), David Duarte (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vitoria won 3 times, Bahia won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:22 from Vitoria's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Vitoria 4-1-4-1 / Bahia 4-4-2
H2H summary: Vitoria wins 3, draws 6, Bahia wins 6
Last matches: Vitoria
16.08.26
Ser
Vitoria
Botafogo
1
0
W
09.08.26
Ser
Vitoria
Flamengo
0
2
L
30.07.26
Ser
Vitoria
Palmeiras
0
4
L
26.07.26
Ser
Vitoria
Remo
0
2
L
23.07.26
Ser
Vitoria
Botafogo
0
0
D
16.07.26
Ser
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Vitoria
Santos
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Vitoria
Internacional
2
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Vitoria
RB Bragantino
0
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Vitoria
Fluminense
2
2
D
02.05.26
Ser
Vitoria
Coritiba
4
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Vitoria
Atletico Paranaense
1
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Vitoria
Corinthians
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Vitoria
Sao Paulo
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Vitoria
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Vitoria
Cruzeiro
0
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Vitoria
Mirassol
1
0
W
19.03.26
Ser
Vitoria
Gremio
0
2
L
14.03.26
Ser
Vitoria
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Vitoria
Bahia
1
1
D
Last matches: Bahia
16.08.26
Ser
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
09.08.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
0
0
D
30.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
0
0
D
26.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
1
1
D
21.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
12.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Fluminense
0
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Atletico Torque
4
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
25.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Coritiba
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
H2H: Vitoria vs Bahia
11.03.26
H2H
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
07.03.26
H2H
Bahia
Vitoria
2
1
L
25.01.26
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
0
1
L
17.10.25
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
2
1
W
18.05.25
H2H
Bahia
Vitoria
2
1
L
23.03.25
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
1
1
D
16.03.25
H2H
Bahia
Vitoria
2
0
L
01.02.25
H2H
Bahia
Vitoria
0
0
D
11.08.24
H2H
Bahia
Vitoria
2
0
L
21.04.24
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
2
2
D
07.04.24
H2H
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
31.03.24
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
3
2
W
21.03.24
H2H
Bahia
Vitoria
2
1
L
18.02.24
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
3
2
W
05.03.23
H2H
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
Last matches: Vitoria
16.08.26
Ser
Vitoria
Botafogo
1
0
W
30.07.26
Ser
Vitoria
Palmeiras
0
4
L
16.07.26
Ser
Vitoria
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Vitoria
Internacional
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Vitoria
Coritiba
4
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Vitoria
Corinthians
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Vitoria
Sao Paulo
2
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Vitoria
Mirassol
1
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Vitoria
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Vitoria
Flamengo
1
2
L
28.01.26
Ser
Vitoria
Remo
2
0
W
H2H at home: Vitoria
25.01.26
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
0
1
L
17.10.25
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
2
1
W
23.03.25
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
1
1
D
21.04.24
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
2
2
D
31.03.24
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
3
2
W
18.02.24
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
3
2
W
Last matches: Bahia
16.08.26
Ser
Bahia
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
30.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
0
0
D
21.07.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico-MG
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Fluminense
0
2
L
25.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Coritiba
2
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
15.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
18.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
28.01.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
2
1
W
H2H away: Bahia
25.01.26
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
0
1
W
17.10.25
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
2
1
L
23.03.25
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
1
1
D
21.04.24
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
2
2
D
31.03.24
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
3
2
L
18.02.24
H2H
Vitoria
Bahia
3
2
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 14 6 3 40:19 21 48
L D W L W
2 22 13 6 3 44:19 25 45
W W D D W
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 23 10 8 5 34:28 6 38
W D D D D
5 23 10 6 7 32:32 0 36
W W W L W
6
Bahia Away
23 8 10 5 32:28 4 34
D D D D D
7 22 9 5 8 27:23 4 32
D L D D W
8 22 9 5 8 30:27 3 32
W D W D W
9 23 8 8 7 25:22 3 32
L W D D W
10 23 8 7 8 28:30 -2 31
D W L D L
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 23 8 5 10 23:33 -10 29
W L L L D
13 22 7 6 9 27:26 1 27
D L D L L
14 22 6 7 9 32:35 -3 25
W L D L W
15 22 6 7 9 24:30 -6 25
L W D L L
16 23 5 9 9 24:28 -4 24
D D D L L
17 22 6 5 11 25:35 -10 23
L L W D W
18 23 5 8 10 27:37 -10 23
D D L W L
19 22 5 7 10 23:34 -11 22
L D D L L
20 22 1 8 13 23:46 -23 11
D L D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B