PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
20.09.2026 14:30

Vitória SC vs Moreirense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.9%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vitória SC Win 55.9%
Draw 18.4%
Moreirense Win 25.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitória SC1.8
Moreirense1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitória SC Vitória SC
WWDLW
20 GF / 10 GA
Moreirense Moreirense
WLDWL
12 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.2
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
2
5
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
8
4.67
Shots on Goal
2.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitória SC Vitória SC 12 matches
Moreirense Moreirense 10 matches
Vitória SC Statistic Moreirense
6 Wins 2
2 Draws 3
4 Losses 5
20 Goals For 12
10 Goals Against 20
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 2
5 BTTS Yes 6
8 Over 1.5 9
5 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 2
4.67 Shots On Goal 2.4
19.67 Total Shots 6.6
6.17 Corners 2.4
54% Ball Possession 35.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Moreirense. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Vitória SC Analysis

Vitória SC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 4 points from 6 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 4:7 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gustavo (1 goals), Gonçalo Nogueira (1 goals), with creative support from Miguel Nogueira (1 assists), Alan (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Moreirense Analysis

Moreirense approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 4 points from 5 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 4:12 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on João Veloso (1 goals), Kiko (1 goals), N. John (1 goals), with creative support from João Veloso (1 assists), A. Duville-Parsemain (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Vitória SC won 7 times, Moreirense won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:14 from Vitória SC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.36 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.6%)
Predicted formations: Vitória SC 4-2-3-1 / Moreirense 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Vitória SC wins 7, draws 4, Moreirense wins 3

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 6 0 0 15:2 13 18
W W W W W
2 6 5 1 0 21:4 17 16
W W W W W
3 6 4 2 0 15:6 9 14
D W W W W
4 6 4 2 0 11:4 7 14
W W D W W
5 6 3 1 2 8:5 3 10
L D W L W
6 5 2 3 0 11:9 2 9
W D W D D
7 6 2 2 2 7:9 -2 8
W W L D L
8 4 2 1 1 6:5 1 7
L W W D
9 5 2 1 2 4:4 0 7
L L D W W
10 5 2 1 2 6:8 -2 7
L L D W W
11 6 1 2 3 8:11 -3 5
W L D L D
12 6 0 4 2 5:7 -2 4
D D D L L
13 6 1 1 4 4:7 -3 4
L D L W L
14 6 1 1 4 7:11 -4 4
L L L L W
15 5 1 1 3 4:12 -8 4
L L W L D
16 5 1 0 4 2:11 -9 3
L L W L L
17 5 0 2 3 2:7 -5 2
D L L L D
18 6 0 1 5 1:15 -14 1
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2