BRAZIL SERIE B
22.07.2026 00:35
Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Referee: D. C. Muniz dos Santos
Vila Nova
Match Timeline
Fortaleza EC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
Douglas Mendes · Assist: Marquinhos Gabriel
Vila Nova
32'
Joao Vieira
Vila Nova
🔄
46'
J. B. Miritello ↔ Nathan Fogaca
Fortaleza EC
🔄
46'
Lucas Sasha ↔ Pierre
Fortaleza EC
🔄
46'
Luiz Fernando ↔ Paulo Baya
Fortaleza EC
🔄
62'
Igor Carius ↔ Hayner
Vila Nova
🔄
65'
Andre Luis ↔ Dudu
Vila Nova
🔄
66'
Vitinho ↔ Welliton
Fortaleza EC
🟨
69'
Nathan Fogaca
Fortaleza EC
🔄
77'
Mauricio Junior ↔ Mailton
Fortaleza EC
78'
Pedro Henrique
Fortaleza EC
🟨
84'
Pierre
Fortaleza EC
🔄
85'
Marquinhos Gabriel ↔ Dodo
Vila Nova
🔄
85'
Higor Meritao ↔ Emerson Urso
Vila Nova
🔄
85'
Dellatorre ↔ Gustavo Puskas
Vila Nova
🟨
90+2'
G. Fuentes
Fortaleza EC
🟨
90+2'
Emerson Urso
Vila Nova

Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vila Nova Win 74%
Draw 4.8%
Fortaleza EC Win 21.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vila Nova1.21
Fortaleza EC1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WWDLW
25 GF / 21 GA
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WLDWL
21 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
10
BTTS Yes
6
8
Over 2.5
8
3.56
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vila Nova Vila Nova 18 matches
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 18 matches
Vila Nova Statistic Fortaleza EC
9 Wins 9
4 Draws 4
5 Losses 5
25 Goals For 21
21 Goals Against 17
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
10 BTTS Yes 6
12 Over 1.5 10
8 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 7
3.56 Shots On Goal 4.33
12.78 Total Shots 14.11
4.39 Corners 5.44
52.7% Ball Possession 46.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Vila Nova have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fortaleza EC. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vila Nova expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Fortaleza EC in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza EC having the stronger overall control.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 2 with 31 points from 17 matches. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 25:19 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Ryan Lima (3 goals), Rafael Silva (3 goals), Janderson (2 goals), with creative support from Janderson (4 assists), Marquinhos Gabriel (4 assists), Ryan Lima (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

So far, Fortaleza EC have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 28 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, while the 20:17 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Juan Miritello (3 goals), Vitinho (3 goals), Luiz Fernando (2 goals), with creative support from Maílton (1 assists), Emanuel Brítez (1 assists), Maurício Júnior (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 1 times, Fortaleza EC won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:6 from Vila Nova's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: Vila Nova 4-2-3-1 / Fortaleza EC 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Vila Nova wins 1, draws 2, Fortaleza EC wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 29 13 8 8 41:36 5 47
W D W W D
6 29 13 8 8 28:27 1 47
L L L W L
7 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
8 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 10 13 6 30:22 8 43
W D W L W
11 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
12 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
13 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
14 29 10 8 11 35:36 -1 38
L D L W W
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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