BRAZIL SERIE B
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.9%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vila Nova Win 77.9%
Draw 4.1%
Ceara Win 18%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vila Nova1.38
Ceara1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WWDLW
35 GF / 25 GA
Ceara Ceara
WLDWL
25 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.04
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
11
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
8
3.92
Shots on Goal
4.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vila Nova Vila Nova 24 matches
Ceara Ceara 24 matches
Vila Nova Statistic Ceara
12 Wins 7
5 Draws 7
7 Losses 10
35 Goals For 25
25 Goals Against 30
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
11 BTTS Yes 12
16 Over 1.5 17
10 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 9
3.92 Shots On Goal 4.21
12.88 Total Shots 13.5
5.04 Corners 5.58
52.4% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Vila Nova's more proactive style and Ceara's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ceara. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Vila Nova arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 40 points compared to Ceara in 16 on 28, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 40 points after 23 outings. The return of 12 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 35:25, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through João Vieira (3 goals), Ryan Lima (3 goals), Rafael Silva (3 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (6 assists), Janderson (4 assists), João Vieira (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Ceara Analysis

Ceara approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 28 points from 24 matches. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 25:30 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Melk (4 goals), Júlio César (2 goals), Lucas Lima (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Giulio (3 assists), Júlio César (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 3 times, Ceara won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:29 from Vila Nova's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 4.18 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.9%)
Predicted formations: Vila Nova 4-2-3-1 / Ceara 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Vila Nova wins 3, draws 2, Ceara wins 6
Last matches: Vila Nova
23.08.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Operario-PR
0
0
D
19.08.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Ponte Preta
6
0
W
15.08.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Atletico Goianiense
2
0
W
08.08.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
0
1
L
27.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
CRB
0
2
L
22.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
18.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Criciuma
0
2
L
10.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Juventude
0
1
L
06.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
São Bernardo
2
1
W
26.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Novorizontino
1
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
4
3
W
14.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Cuiaba
0
1
L
08.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Botafogo SP
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Londrina
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
America Mineiro
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Avai
2
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Goias
0
1
L
04.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Athletic Club
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Ceara
3
3
D
18.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Operario-PR
2
1
W
Last matches: Ceara
22.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
2
1
W
19.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
15.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
1
3
L
07.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
4
3
W
22.07.26
Ser
Ceara
CRB
0
1
L
17.07.26
Ser
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
1
D
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
10.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
H2H: Vila Nova vs Ceara
26.04.26
H2H
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
22.09.24
H2H
Ceara
Vila Nova
4
0
L
10.06.24
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
3
2
W
18.11.23
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
3
1
W
20.07.23
H2H
Ceara
Vila Nova
1
0
L
03.10.17
H2H
Ceara
Vila Nova
2
0
L
21.06.17
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
1
1
D
12.11.16
H2H
Ceara
Vila Nova
2
3
W
23.07.16
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
3
4
L
30.09.14
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
1
5
L
28.05.14
H2H
Ceara
Vila Nova
4
0
L
Last matches: Vila Nova
19.08.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Ponte Preta
6
0
W
08.08.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
0
1
L
22.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
06.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
São Bernardo
2
1
W
20.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
4
3
W
08.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Botafogo SP
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Avai
2
0
W
04.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Athletic Club
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Operario-PR
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Atletico Goianiense
2
1
W
21.03.26
Ser
Vila Nova
CRB
2
2
D
H2H at home: Vila Nova
10.06.24
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
3
2
W
18.11.23
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
3
1
W
21.06.17
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
1
1
D
23.07.16
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
3
4
L
30.09.14
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
1
5
L
Last matches: Ceara
19.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
26.07.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
4
3
W
17.07.26
Ser
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
1
D
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
2
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
H2H away: Ceara
10.06.24
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
3
2
L
18.11.23
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
3
1
L
21.06.17
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
1
1
D
23.07.16
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
3
4
W
30.09.14
H2H
Vila Nova
Ceara
1
5
W

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 24 12 8 4 25:17 8 44
L D W L D
3 24 12 5 7 35:25 10 41
D W W L L
4 24 11 7 6 39:21 18 40
W W D L W
5 24 11 7 6 27:21 6 40
W D D D W
6 24 9 11 4 32:22 10 38
W L W W D
7 24 10 6 8 35:34 1 36
L W D W W
8 24 10 6 8 30:31 -1 36
D L L L L
9 24 9 9 6 27:23 4 36
W D L D W
10 24 8 10 6 25:25 0 34
L L W W D
11 24 9 6 9 23:29 -6 33
D L L W L
12 24 7 12 5 21:18 3 33
D W W D D
13 24 8 8 8 33:27 6 32
D D L W L
14 24 8 7 9 28:26 2 31
L D W W L
15 24 8 7 9 28:27 1 31
D W D D D
16 24 8 5 11 27:30 -3 29
W W W L L
17
Ceara Away
24 7 7 10 25:30 -5 28
W L L W W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 24 2 5 17 16:42 -26 11
L L L L W
20 24 2 4 18 16:50 -34 10
L L D L D
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