BRAZIL SERIE B
30.08.2026 21:30
Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Referee: L. Willers Lorenzatto
Vila Nova
Match Timeline
Ceara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
Breno Augusto · Assist: Tiago Pagnussat
Vila Nova
🔄
45+2'
Breno Augusto ↔ Willian Formiga
Vila Nova
🔄
46'
Richardson ↔ Vinicius Zanocelo
Ceara
🔄
46'
Lucas Mugni ↔ Matheus Araujo
Ceara
🟨
53'
Dudu Dos Santos
Vila Nova
🟨
54'
Júlio César
Ceara
🔄
71'
Julio Cesar ↔ Vina
Ceara
🔄
72'
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo ↔ Lenny Lobato
Ceara
🔄
73'
Marquinhos Gabriel ↔ Dodo
Vila Nova
🔄
73'
Everton Galdino ↔ Emerson Urso
Vila Nova
75'
Andre Luis · Assist: Janderson
Vila Nova
🟨
78'
João Vieira
Vila Nova
🔄
79'
Dudu ↔ Willian Maranhao
Vila Nova
🔄
79'
Joao Vieira ↔ Nathan Camargo
Vila Nova
🔄
84'
Enzo Lodovico ↔ Aloisio
Ceara
🟨
90'
Richard
Ceara
🟨
90'
Vinicius Zanocelo
Ceara

Vila Nova vs Ceara Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.9%
Odds 1.94
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.39
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.9%
1.94
BTTS Yes
62.8%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.39
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.12
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Vila Nova Win 77.9%
Draw 4.1%
Ceara Win 18%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vila Nova1.38
Ceara1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WWDLW
35 GF / 25 GA
Ceara Ceara
WLDWL
25 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.04
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
11
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
8
3.92
Shots on Goal
4.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vila Nova Vila Nova 24 matches
Ceara Ceara 24 matches
Vila Nova Statistic Ceara
12 Wins 7
5 Draws 7
7 Losses 10
35 Goals For 25
25 Goals Against 30
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
11 BTTS Yes 12
16 Over 1.5 17
10 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 9
3.92 Shots On Goal 4.21
12.88 Total Shots 13.5
5.04 Corners 5.58
52.4% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Vila Nova's more proactive style and Ceara's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ceara. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Vila Nova arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 40 points compared to Ceara in 16 on 28, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 40 points after 23 outings. The return of 12 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 35:25, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through João Vieira (3 goals), Ryan Lima (3 goals), Rafael Silva (3 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (6 assists), Janderson (4 assists), João Vieira (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Ceara Analysis

Ceara approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 28 points from 24 matches. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 25:30 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Melk (4 goals), Júlio César (2 goals), Lucas Lima (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Giulio (3 assists), Júlio César (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 3 times, Ceara won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:29 from Vila Nova's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 4.18 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.9%)
Predicted formations: Vila Nova 4-2-3-1 / Ceara 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Vila Nova wins 3, draws 2, Ceara wins 6

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
11 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
12 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
13 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15
Ceara Away
29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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