NORWAY ELITESERIEN
20.09.2026 15:00
SR-Bank Arena
Referee: Stian Rovig Sletner

Viking vs Lillestrom Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.2%
Odds 1.42
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.32
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.2%
1.42
BTTS Yes
86%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.32
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
2.00
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Viking Win 68.2%
Draw 3.5%
Lillestrom Win 28.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Viking2.07
Lillestrom1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Viking Viking
WWDLW
79 GF / 33 GA
Lillestrom Lillestrom
WLDWL
61 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
2.47
Average Goals Scored
1.69
1.03
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
22
BTTS Yes
20
23
Over 2.5
21
5.78
Shots on Goal
3.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Viking Viking 32 matches
Lillestrom Lillestrom 36 matches
Viking Statistic Lillestrom
22 Wins 15
6 Draws 6
4 Losses 15
79 Goals For 61
33 Goals Against 53
2.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
1.03 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
22 BTTS Yes 20
30 Over 1.5 29
23 Over 2.5 21
12 Over 3.5 14
9 Clean Sheets 9
1 Failed To Score 10
5.78 Shots On Goal 3.96
15.04 Total Shots 11.78
6.57 Corners 5.57
49.7% Ball Possession 52.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Viking arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 44 points compared to Lillestrom in 5 on 32, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lillestrom. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Viking expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Lillestrom in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lillestrom having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Viking Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 44 points from 19 games, Viking bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 14 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 43:19, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through P. Christiansen (8 goals), S. Kvia-Egeskog (7 goals), Z. Tripić (6 goals), with creative support from Z. Tripić (13 assists), P. Christiansen (4 assists), H. Heggheim (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Lillestrom Analysis

Placed 5 with 32 points from 20 outings, Lillestrom continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 28:26 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vá (4 goals), G. Nyheim (4 goals), Markus Karlsbakk (4 goals), with creative support from Vá (5 assists), Y. Ibrahimaj (2 assists), F. Elkær (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Viking won 9 times, Lillestrom won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 30:16 from Viking's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.54 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.5%)
Predicted formations: Viking 4-3-3 / Lillestrom 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Viking 5, Lillestrom 4
H2H summary: Viking wins 9, draws 2, Lillestrom wins 2

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 16 2 2 52:17 35 50
W W W W W
2 20 15 2 3 51:20 31 47
W D W L W
3 21 11 3 7 44:32 12 36
L W W W W
4 20 10 5 5 37:27 10 35
L L D L W
5 21 10 3 8 39:30 9 33
W W W L W
6 20 10 2 8 28:26 2 32
W W L D L
7 20 8 3 9 24:31 -7 27
D L W W W
8 20 8 2 10 37:31 6 26
L L D W W
9 21 6 7 8 24:29 -5 25
L D D D L
10 21 7 4 10 25:35 -10 25
W W L L D
11 20 6 5 9 27:41 -14 23
L L D L D
12 20 6 4 10 33:42 -9 22
L D L D L
13 21 4 9 8 33:46 -13 21
W L W L D
14 20 5 5 10 18:27 -9 20
L D D W L
15 21 5 4 12 21:40 -19 19
L L W D L
16 20 4 4 12 22:41 -19 16
W L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen