BOSNIA › PREMIJER LIGA
21.04.2026 18:30
Stadion Rodjeni
Referee: M. Kazlagic
Velež
Match Timeline
Siroki Brijeg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
25'
A. Spahic · Assist: D. Salcin
Velež
⚽
35'
A. Spahic · Assist: M. Kuzmanovic
Velež
🔄
42'
I. Bagaric ↔ I. Kraljevic
Siroki Brijeg
🔄
46'
M. Matic ↔ A. Bajkusa
Siroki Brijeg
⚽
59'
A. Spahic
Velež
🔄
62'
K. Sesar ↔ H. Sobol
Siroki Brijeg
🔄
62'
L. Perko ↔ T. Tomic
Siroki Brijeg
🔄
64'
V. Djuric ↔ E. Vehabovic
Velež
🔄
64'
S. Pidro ↔ S. Duranovic
Velež
🔄
72'
A. Spahic ↔ D. Dogan
Velež
🔄
76'
M. Klepac ↔ I. Pranjic
Siroki Brijeg
🔄
79'
I. Saric ↔ A. Mesic
Velež
🔄
79'
D. Salcin ↔ A. Milak
Velež

Velež vs Siroki Brijeg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Velež Win 66.4%
Draw 10.3%
Siroki Brijeg Win 23.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Velež1.03
Siroki Brijeg0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Velež Velež
WWDLW
25 GF / 26 GA
Siroki Brijeg Siroki Brijeg
WLDWL
27 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
0.86
Average Goals Scored
0.93
0.9
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
10
BTTS Yes
15
9
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Velež Velež 29 matches
Siroki Brijeg Siroki Brijeg 29 matches
Velež Statistic Siroki Brijeg
11 Wins 9
7 Draws 10
11 Losses 10
25 Goals For 27
26 Goals Against 37
0.86 Avg Goals Scored 0.93
0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
10 BTTS Yes 15
13 Over 1.5 17
9 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 6
10 Clean Sheets 10
13 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Siroki Brijeg arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Siroki Brijeg. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Siroki Brijeg having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Velež Analysis

Placed 4 with 40 points from 29 outings, Velež continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses, while the 23:24 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on I. Saric (6 goals), A. Mesic (3 goals), D. Salcin (3 goals), with creative support from B. Serbecic (2 assists), A. Nukic (2 assists), E. Vehabovic (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Siroki Brijeg Analysis

Siroki Brijeg approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 37 points from 29 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 10 defeats with a 27:36 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Stanic (10 goals), D. Jelavic (2 goals), F. Posavac (2 goals), with creative support from I. Pranjic (5 assists), M. Stanic (3 assists), D. Jelavic (3 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Velež won 8 times, Siroki Brijeg won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:18 from Velež's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.7%)
H2H summary: Velež wins 8, draws 2, Siroki Brijeg wins 5

Standings

Premijer Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 27 5 4 76:20 56 86
W D W W W
2 36 21 8 7 48:25 23 71
W D D W W
3 36 19 8 9 54:37 17 65
W W D W L
4 36 14 9 13 36:35 1 51
L L W D W
5 36 11 12 13 37:48 -11 45
W D D L L
6 36 10 12 14 34:37 -3 42
L D L W L
7 36 8 11 17 27:45 -18 35
L D D L L
8 36 8 10 18 21:46 -25 34
W W D L W
9 36 8 10 18 25:41 -16 34
L L D D L
10 36 7 9 20 31:55 -24 30
L D L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation