Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home or Draw |
59.4%
|
1.36 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
62.8%
|
2.00 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
52.4%
|
2.60 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.41 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
4.00 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
10.00 |
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Velez Sarsfield
21 matches
Independiente
21 matches
| Velez Sarsfield | Statistic | Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wins | 10 |
| 7 | Draws | 6 |
| 3 | Losses | 5 |
| 28 | Goals For | 34 |
| 15 | Goals Against | 25 |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.62 |
| 0.71 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.19 |
| 10 | BTTS Yes | 13 |
| 12 | Over 1.5 | 18 |
| 6 | Over 2.5 | 8 |
| 4 | Over 3.5 | 5 |
| 9 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 4 | Failed To Score | 1 |
| 4.16 | Shots On Goal | 4.11 |
| 12.05 | Total Shots | 12.63 |
| 4.26 | Corners | 5.58 |
| 54.4% | Ball Possession | 51.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Independiente. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.
Velez Sarsfield arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 28 points after 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, while the 18:12 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Florián Monzón (3 goals), Joaquín García (1 goals), Manuel Lanzini (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Valdés (2 assists), Tobías Andrada (1 assists), Matías Pellegrini (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
Operating from 5 place with 24 points from 16 games, Independiente bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 24:20, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Gabriel Ávalos (4 goals), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 goals), Matías Abaldo (2 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Ávalos (2 assists), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 assists), Matías Abaldo (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Velez Sarsfield won 4 times, Independiente won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:16 from Velez Sarsfield's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.
Velez Sarsfield
Talleres Cordoba
Velez Sarsfield
Instituto Cordoba
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia L.P.
Velez Sarsfield
Newells Old Boys
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Velez Sarsfield
Union Santa Fe
Velez Sarsfield
San Lorenzo
Velez Sarsfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Velez Sarsfield
Deportivo Armenio
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia M.
Velez Sarsfield
Lanus
Velez Sarsfield
Platense
Velez Sarsfield
Tigre
Velez Sarsfield
Estudiantes L.P.
Velez Sarsfield
Deportivo Riestra
Velez Sarsfield
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
Defensa Y Justicia
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
Talleres Cordoba
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
Independiente
Rosario Central
Independiente
San Lorenzo
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
Independiente
Boca Juniors
Independiente
Racing Club
Independiente
Atenas
Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
Independiente
Instituto Cordoba
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
Independiente
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Independiente
Gimnasia M.
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
Independiente
Lanus
Independiente
Platense
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
Velez Sarsfield
Instituto Cordoba
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia L.P.
Velez Sarsfield
Newells Old Boys
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Velez Sarsfield
Union Santa Fe
Velez Sarsfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Velez Sarsfield
Deportivo Armenio
Velez Sarsfield
Lanus
Velez Sarsfield
Deportivo Riestra
Velez Sarsfield
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
Talleres Cordoba
Velez Sarsfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
Independiente
Rosario Central
Independiente
San Lorenzo
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
Independiente
Boca Juniors
Independiente
Instituto Cordoba
Independiente
Gimnasia M.
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
Independiente
Platense
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19:7 | 12 | 31 |
W
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22:9 | 13 | 30 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 3 |
Velez Sarsfield
Home
|
16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18:12 | 6 | 28 |
W
W
L
D
D
|
| 4 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17:13 | 4 | 26 |
L
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 5 |
Independiente
Away
|
16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24:20 | 4 | 24 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
| 6 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18:15 | 3 | 24 |
W
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 7 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 22 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24:20 | 4 | 21 |
L
D
L
W
D
|
|
| 9 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17:17 | 0 | 21 |
W
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 10 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 19 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14:22 | -8 | 19 |
W
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 16 |
L
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 13 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11:21 | -10 | 16 |
L
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 14 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15:27 | -12 | 15 |
L
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 15 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5:12 | -7 | 11 |
L
W
D
W
L
|