ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: L. Rey Hilfer

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 59.4%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 2.60
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
59.4%
1.36
BTTS Yes
62.8%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
2.60
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.41
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Velez Sarsfield Win 41.3%
Draw 18%
Independiente Win 40.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Velez Sarsfield1.27
Independiente1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield
WWDLW
28 GF / 15 GA
Independiente Independiente
WLDWL
34 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.62
0.71
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
10
BTTS Yes
13
6
Over 2.5
8
4.16
Shots on Goal
4.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 21 matches
Independiente Independiente 21 matches
Velez Sarsfield Statistic Independiente
11 Wins 10
7 Draws 6
3 Losses 5
28 Goals For 34
15 Goals Against 25
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.62
0.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
10 BTTS Yes 13
12 Over 1.5 18
6 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 5
9 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 1
4.16 Shots On Goal 4.11
12.05 Total Shots 12.63
4.26 Corners 5.58
54.4% Ball Possession 51.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Independiente. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Velez Sarsfield Analysis

Velez Sarsfield arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 28 points after 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, while the 18:12 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Florián Monzón (3 goals), Joaquín García (1 goals), Manuel Lanzini (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Valdés (2 assists), Tobías Andrada (1 assists), Matías Pellegrini (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Independiente Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 24 points from 16 games, Independiente bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 24:20, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Gabriel Ávalos (4 goals), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 goals), Matías Abaldo (2 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Ávalos (2 assists), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 assists), Matías Abaldo (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Velez Sarsfield won 4 times, Independiente won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:16 from Velez Sarsfield's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82%)
Predicted formations: Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1 / Independiente 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Velez Sarsfield wins 4, draws 6, Independiente wins 5
Last matches: Velez Sarsfield
30.07.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Talleres Cordoba
3
1
W
24.07.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Instituto Cordoba
1
0
W
11.05.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia L.P.
0
1
L
04.05.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Newells Old Boys
1
1
D
01.05.26
Cop
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia Y Tiro
2
0
W
27.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Union Santa Fe
2
2
D
20.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
San Lorenzo
0
0
D
14.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago
1
0
W
07.04.26
Cop
Velez Sarsfield
Deportivo Armenio
4
1
W
03.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia M.
2
3
L
21.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Lanus
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Platense
2
0
W
10.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Tigre
1
1
D
02.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
25.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Deportivo Riestra
0
0
D
22.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
River Plate
1
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Defensa Y Justicia
1
1
D
09.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
2
1
W
31.01.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
1
1
D
27.01.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Talleres Cordoba
2
1
W
Last matches: Independiente
31.07.26
Lig
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
0
W
26.07.26
Lig
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
2
0
W
22.05.26
Cop
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente
Rosario Central
1
3
L
02.05.26
Lig
Independiente
San Lorenzo
2
1
W
24.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
0
2
L
18.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
3
1
W
11.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Racing Club
1
0
W
27.03.26
Cop
Independiente
Atenas
4
2
W
21.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
1
2
L
17.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
10.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
4
4
D
28.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Central Cordoba de Santiago
2
0
W
25.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Gimnasia M.
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
2
3
L
13.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Lanus
2
0
W
08.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Platense
1
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
28.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
1
D
H2H: Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente
31.01.26
H2H
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
16.08.25
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
2
1
W
12.02.25
H2H
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
3
0
L
27.09.24
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
1
0
W
26.05.24
H2H
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
31.01.24
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
0
1
L
27.08.23
H2H
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
2
1
L
12.02.23
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
0
0
D
16.09.22
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
0
2
L
28.08.22
H2H
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
20.02.22
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
0
0
D
02.10.21
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
3
3
D
20.03.21
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
1
0
W
14.03.20
H2H
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
1
0
L
06.10.19
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
2
0
W
Last matches: Velez Sarsfield
24.07.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Instituto Cordoba
1
0
W
11.05.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia L.P.
0
1
L
04.05.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Newells Old Boys
1
1
D
01.05.26
Cop
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia Y Tiro
2
0
W
27.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Union Santa Fe
2
2
D
14.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago
1
0
W
07.04.26
Cop
Velez Sarsfield
Deportivo Armenio
4
1
W
21.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Lanus
0
1
L
25.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Deportivo Riestra
0
0
D
22.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
River Plate
1
0
W
09.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
2
1
W
27.01.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Talleres Cordoba
2
1
W
06.09.25
Sup
Velez Sarsfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago
2
0
W
H2H at home: Velez Sarsfield
16.08.25
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
2
1
W
27.09.24
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
1
0
W
31.01.24
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
0
1
L
12.02.23
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
0
0
D
16.09.22
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
0
2
L
20.02.22
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
0
0
D
02.10.21
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
3
3
D
20.03.21
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
1
0
W
06.10.19
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
2
0
W
Last matches: Independiente
26.07.26
Lig
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
2
0
W
22.05.26
Cop
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente
Rosario Central
1
3
L
02.05.26
Lig
Independiente
San Lorenzo
2
1
W
24.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
0
2
L
11.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
25.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Gimnasia M.
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
2
3
L
08.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Platense
1
0
W
28.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
1
D
H2H away: Independiente
16.08.25
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
2
1
L
27.09.24
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
1
0
L
31.01.24
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
0
1
W
12.02.23
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
0
0
D
16.09.22
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
0
2
W
20.02.22
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
0
0
D
02.10.21
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
3
3
D
20.03.21
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
1
0
L
06.10.19
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
2
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.18
Draw 2.82
Home 2.63
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.93
Draw 1.99
Home 3.35
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.12
Over 1.5 1.49
Over 1.75 1.64
Over 2.0 1.90
Over 2.25 2.25
Over 2.5 2.60
Over 3.5 5.04
Under 0.5 6.45
Under 1.5 2.64
Under 1.75 2.29
Under 2.0 1.93
Under 2.25 1.66
Under 2.5 1.51
Under 3.5 1.17
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.80
Home 2.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 1.95
Home 3.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 2.20
Home 2.88
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.11
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 2.5 2.50
Over 3.5 5.00
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 26.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 6.50
Under 1.5 2.50
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.16
Draw 2.81
Home 2.63
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.05
Draw 1.77
Home 3.42
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.42
Draw 2.15
Home 2.88
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 0.75 1.10
Over 1.0 1.13
Over 1.25 1.33
Over 1.5 1.49
Over 1.75 1.65
Over 2.0 1.82
Over 2.25 2.21
Over 2.5 2.54
Over 2.75 2.88
Over 3.0 3.82
Over 3.25 4.20
Over 3.5 4.60
Over 3.75 5.95
Over 4.0 9.00
Over 4.25 8.60
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 21.00
Under 0.5 6.05
Under 0.75 5.48
Under 1.0 4.90
Under 1.25 3.23
Under 1.5 2.56
Under 1.75 2.24
Under 2.0 1.85
Under 2.25 1.67
Under 2.5 1.52
Under 2.75 1.32
Under 3.0 1.19
Under 3.25 1.15
Under 3.5 1.13
Under 3.75 1.07
Under 4.0 1.00
Under 4.25 1.01
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.15
Draw 3.00
Home 2.45
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.85
Draw 1.90
Home 3.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.23
Home 2.85
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.11
Over 1.5 1.53
Over 2.0 1.98
Over 2.5 2.65
Over 3.5 5.40
Over 4.5 11.00
Under 0.5 6.25
Under 1.5 2.43
Under 2.0 1.78
Under 2.5 1.44
Under 3.5 1.13
Under 4.5 1.02

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L L W D
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
L L W W W
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
W W L D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L L L D D
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
W W L W L
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W L D D L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
W L L L W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L D L W D
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W L W D L
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
L W D L L
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
W L W W L
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L L L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L L D W
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
L W D D W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L W D W L
Knockout Phase