ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
09.09.2026 16:00
Parnu Rannastaadion
Referee: J. Lorenz
Vaprus
Match Timeline
Laagri
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
26'
R. Orm
Vaprus
🔄
27'
S. Viidas ↔ K. Kauber
Vaprus
42'
J. Sild
Vaprus
🔄
46'
K. Roomussaar ↔ M. Kelement
Laagri
51'
M. Seck
Vaprus
🟨
57'
K. Kriis
Laagri
🔄
64'
I. Bah ↔ H. Palutaja
Laagri
🔄
64'
A. Binate ↔ S. Kerge
Laagri
🔄
71'
Y. E. Assale ↔ K. Laur
Laagri
🟨
77'
K. Kauber
Vaprus
78'
S. Kerge · Assist: Rudenko Daniil
Laagri
🔄
79'
K. Kriis ↔ K. Ennuste
Laagri
80'
K. Laur
Laagri
🔄
80'
R. Orm ↔ U. Nomm
Vaprus
🟨
81'
S. Kerge
Laagri
🟨
84'
O. Nomm
Vaprus

Vaprus vs Laagri Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.8%
Odds 2.29
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.52
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.8%
2.29
BTTS Yes
86%
1.44
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.52
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.10
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Vaprus Win 55.8%
Draw 14.4%
Laagri Win 29.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vaprus1.66
Laagri1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vaprus Vaprus
WWDLW
53 GF / 58 GA
Laagri Laagri
WLDWL
52 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.71
Average Goals Scored
1.58
1.87
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
20
BTTS Yes
18
21
Over 2.5
22
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vaprus Vaprus 31 matches
Laagri Laagri 33 matches
Vaprus Statistic Laagri
11 Wins 14
5 Draws 3
15 Losses 16
53 Goals For 52
58 Goals Against 52
1.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
1.87 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
20 BTTS Yes 18
26 Over 1.5 28
21 Over 2.5 22
14 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vaprus expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Laagri in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Laagri having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Laagri.

Vaprus Analysis

With 28 points from 24 games and a place of 7, Vaprus still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 33:46, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Laagri Analysis

Laagri approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 31 points from 25 matches. Their record of 10 wins, 1 draws, and 14 losses, together with goals at 36:41, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Vaprus won 5 times, Laagri won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:11 from Vaprus's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.36 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: Vaprus 3-4-1-2 / Laagri 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Vaprus wins 5, draws 3, Laagri wins 3

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 21 5 1 74:20 54 68
W W W W W
2 28 17 1 10 56:37 19 52
W D W W L
3 28 14 5 9 49:26 23 47
W L L L L
4 27 13 6 8 43:35 8 45
L W L W W
5 27 14 2 11 36:38 -2 44
W L W L W
6 28 11 1 16 40:47 -7 34
W L L W W
7 27 10 4 13 37:52 -15 34
L W W D L
8 28 9 1 18 46:65 -19 28
L W L L L
9 28 8 4 16 31:49 -18 28
L L W D L
10 28 5 3 20 21:64 -43 18
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga