ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
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Parnu Rannastaadion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.8%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vaprus Win 49.8%
Draw 4.2%
Flora Tallinn Win 46%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vaprus1.55
Flora Tallinn1.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vaprus Vaprus
WWDLW
48 GF / 51 GA
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn
WLDWL
56 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.78
Average Goals Scored
1.7
1.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
17
BTTS Yes
12
18
Over 2.5
22
0
Shots on Goal
1.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vaprus Vaprus 27 matches
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn 33 matches
Vaprus Statistic Flora Tallinn
10 Wins 18
4 Draws 2
13 Losses 13
48 Goals For 56
51 Goals Against 40
1.78 Avg Goals Scored 1.7
1.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
17 BTTS Yes 12
23 Over 1.5 25
18 Over 2.5 22
12 Over 3.5 12
6 Clean Sheets 13
6 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 1.33
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 2.17
0% Ball Possession 16.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Flora Tallinn's more proactive style and Vaprus's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Flora Tallinn. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Flora Tallinn having the stronger overall control. Flora Tallinn carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 39 points while Vaprus sit 6 on 27, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Vaprus Analysis

So far, Vaprus have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 27 points from 21 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 29:39 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Flora Tallinn Analysis

Flora Tallinn come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 39 points after 20 matches. They have recorded 13 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, with a 40:21 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 7 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vaprus won 2 times, Flora Tallinn won 11 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:28 from Vaprus's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Vaprus - / Flora Tallinn 4-3-3
H2H summary: Vaprus wins 2, draws 2, Flora Tallinn wins 11
Last matches: Vaprus
02.08.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
18.07.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
3
L
11.07.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
5
1
W
04.07.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
1
3
L
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
13.08.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Inter Club d'Escaldes
0
4
L
06.08.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Inter Club d'Escaldes
0
2
L
02.08.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
1
0
W
30.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
The New Saints
0
1
L
23.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
The New Saints
1
0
W
17.07.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
1
2
L
14.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Saburtalo
2
2
D
08.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Saburtalo
2
3
L
02.07.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
3
0
W
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
21.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
16.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
29.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
4
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
30.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
5
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
H2H: Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn
16.06.26
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
12.04.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
0
L
17.01.26
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
08.11.25
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
13.09.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
3
0
L
02.05.25
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
08.03.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
0
1
W
29.09.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
3
0
L
23.08.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
11.05.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
0
1
W
14.04.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
18.02.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
25.11.23
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
1
0
L
01.10.23
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
28.07.23
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
1
1
D
Last matches: Vaprus
02.08.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
11.07.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
5
1
W
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
H2H at home: Vaprus
16.06.26
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
17.01.26
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
08.11.25
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
02.05.25
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
23.08.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
14.04.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
18.02.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
01.10.23
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
06.08.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Inter Club d'Escaldes
0
2
L
30.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
The New Saints
0
1
L
14.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Saburtalo
2
2
D
02.07.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
3
0
W
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
16.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
29.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
4
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
1
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
03.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
0
2
L
20.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Paide
3
1
W
25.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
AIK Stockholm
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
2
D
10.07.25
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Valur Reykjavik
0
3
L
H2H away: Flora Tallinn
16.06.26
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
W
17.01.26
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
08.11.25
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
W
02.05.25
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
W
23.08.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
1
W
14.04.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
3
W
18.02.24
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
3
W
01.10.23
H2H
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
1
W

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 15 5 1 55:17 38 50
W D W L D
2 22 12 5 5 40:17 23 41
W W D W D
3 20 13 0 7 40:21 19 39
W L W W L
4 21 10 5 6 33:28 5 35
W L W D W
5 20 9 2 9 23:31 -8 29
W L L W W
6 21 8 3 10 29:39 -10 27
D L W L W
7 23 8 1 14 40:54 -14 25
L L L W W
8 22 8 1 13 32:38 -6 25
L L W W L
9 22 6 3 13 22:36 -14 21
W L D L L
10 22 5 1 16 17:50 -33 16
L W W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga