ICELAND ÚRVALSDEILD
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Valur Reykjavik Win 76%
Draw 8.1%
Stjarnan Win 15.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valur Reykjavik1.85
Stjarnan1.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valur Reykjavik Valur Reykjavik
WWDLW
27 GF / 32 GA
Stjarnan Stjarnan
WLDWL
40 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
1.59
Average Goals Scored
1.9
1.88
Average Goals Conceded
2.24
11
BTTS Yes
18
11
Over 2.5
18
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valur Reykjavik Valur Reykjavik 17 matches
Stjarnan Stjarnan 21 matches
Valur Reykjavik Statistic Stjarnan
7 Wins 8
1 Draws 4
9 Losses 9
27 Goals For 40
32 Goals Against 47
1.59 Avg Goals Scored 1.9
1.88 Avg Goals Conceded 2.24
11 BTTS Yes 18
13 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 18
8 Over 3.5 15
3 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Stjarnan. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Valur Reykjavik expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Stjarnan in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Stjarnan having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Valur Reykjavik Analysis

With 19 points from 16 games and a place of 5, Valur Reykjavik still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 9 defeats with a 26:32 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Stjarnan Analysis

Stjarnan sit 10 with 15 points after 16 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 9 defeats with a 29:41 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Valur Reykjavik won 8 times, Stjarnan won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 35:22 from Valur Reykjavik's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.9%)
Predicted formations: Valur Reykjavik 4-2-3-1 / Stjarnan 4-3-3
H2H summary: Valur Reykjavik wins 8, draws 1, Stjarnan wins 6
Last matches: Valur Reykjavik
23.07.26
UEF
Valur Reykjavik
Zrinjski
1
0
W
18.07.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
2
3
L
12.07.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
FH hafnarfjordur
0
2
L
04.07.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0
1
L
28.06.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Thor Akureyri
4
2
W
21.06.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
1
1
D
16.06.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
IA Akranes
0
1
L
31.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik
1
5
L
26.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
1
3
L
22.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
KA Akureyri
1
0
W
17.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Breidablik
3
2
W
08.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
2
3
L
02.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
1
4
L
27.04.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
4
2
W
23.04.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
FH hafnarfjordur
3
0
W
17.04.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2
1
W
12.04.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Thor Akureyri
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
Valur Reykjavik
Kauno Žalgiris
1
2
L
24.07.25
UEF
Valur Reykjavik
Kauno Žalgiris
1
1
D
17.07.25
UEF
Valur Reykjavik
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
Last matches: Stjarnan
26.07.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
IA Akranes
1
5
L
23.07.26
UEF
Stjarnan
Ilves
1
0
W
19.07.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
KR Reykjavik
0
5
L
16.07.26
UEF
Stjarnan
Vikingur Gota
2
2
D
09.07.26
UEF
Stjarnan
Vikingur Gota
3
1
W
03.07.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
FH hafnarfjordur
2
2
D
28.06.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
KA Akureyri
3
1
W
21.06.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1
2
L
16.06.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
Breidablik
4
4
D
31.05.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
Thor Akureyri
3
1
W
26.05.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
Vikingur Reykjavik
1
3
L
22.05.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
Fram Reykjavik
0
1
L
17.05.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
Keflavik
1
1
D
08.05.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
KR Reykjavik
2
3
L
03.05.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
IA Akranes
1
2
L
27.04.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
Valur Reykjavik
2
4
L
23.04.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
Vikingur Reykjavik
2
3
L
17.04.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
FH hafnarfjordur
3
2
W
12.04.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
KA Akureyri
3
2
W
12.02.26
Fri
Stjarnan
B 93
3
2
W
H2H: Valur Reykjavik vs Stjarnan
27.04.26
H2H
Stjarnan
Valur Reykjavik
2
4
W
04.10.25
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
3
2
W
14.09.25
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
1
2
L
01.07.25
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
3
1
W
14.06.25
H2H
Stjarnan
Valur Reykjavik
3
2
L
23.09.24
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
2
2
D
30.05.24
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
5
1
W
19.04.24
H2H
Stjarnan
Valur Reykjavik
1
0
L
17.09.23
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
2
0
W
17.07.23
H2H
Stjarnan
Valur Reykjavik
2
0
L
29.04.23
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
3
2
W
16.10.22
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
3
0
W
14.08.22
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
6
1
W
15.05.22
H2H
Stjarnan
Valur Reykjavik
1
0
L
28.08.21
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
1
2
L
Last matches: Valur Reykjavik
23.07.26
UEF
Valur Reykjavik
Zrinjski
1
0
W
18.07.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
2
3
L
21.06.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
1
1
D
31.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik
1
5
L
17.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Breidablik
3
2
W
02.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
1
4
L
23.04.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
FH hafnarfjordur
3
0
W
17.04.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2
1
W
12.04.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Thor Akureyri
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
Valur Reykjavik
Kauno Žalgiris
1
2
L
10.07.25
UEF
Valur Reykjavik
Flora Tallinn
3
0
W
H2H at home: Valur Reykjavik
04.10.25
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
3
2
W
14.09.25
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
1
2
L
01.07.25
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
3
1
W
23.09.24
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
2
2
D
30.05.24
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
5
1
W
17.09.23
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
2
0
W
29.04.23
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
3
2
W
16.10.22
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
3
0
W
14.08.22
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
6
1
W
28.08.21
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
1
2
L
Last matches: Stjarnan
26.07.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
IA Akranes
1
5
L
19.07.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
KR Reykjavik
0
5
L
16.07.26
UEF
Stjarnan
Vikingur Gota
2
2
D
03.07.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
FH hafnarfjordur
2
2
D
21.06.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1
2
L
31.05.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
Thor Akureyri
3
1
W
17.05.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
Keflavik
1
1
D
23.04.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
Vikingur Reykjavik
2
3
L
12.04.26
Úrv
Stjarnan
KA Akureyri
3
2
W
12.02.26
Fri
Stjarnan
B 93
3
2
W
08.02.26
Fri
Stjarnan
Karpaty
2
1
W
H2H away: Stjarnan
04.10.25
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
3
2
L
14.09.25
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
1
2
W
01.07.25
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
3
1
L
23.09.24
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
2
2
D
30.05.24
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
5
1
L
17.09.23
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
2
0
L
29.04.23
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
3
2
L
16.10.22
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
3
0
L
14.08.22
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
6
1
L
28.08.21
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
1
2
W

Standings

Regular Season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 14 1 1 54:12 42 43
W L W W W
2 16 11 2 3 58:36 22 35
W W D L W
3 16 10 4 2 41:28 13 34
D W W D W
4 16 8 5 3 35:26 9 29
W D W W L
5 16 6 1 9 26:32 -6 19
L L L W D
6 16 5 4 7 25:33 -8 19
L W L D W
7 16 5 3 8 26:34 -8 18
W L L L L
8 16 4 4 8 26:34 -8 16
L D L W D
9 16 4 3 9 24:32 -8 15
D D W L L
10 16 4 3 9 29:41 -12 15
L L D W L
11 16 2 7 7 20:31 -11 13
D D W D D
12 16 3 3 10 17:42 -25 12
D W L D L