NORWAY ELITESERIEN
19.04.2026 12:30
Intility Arena
Referee: S. Kringstad
Valerenga
Match Timeline
Lillestrom
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
16'
Ivan Näsberg
Valerenga
🟨
39'
Lars Ranger
Lillestrom
🟨
45+4'
Ambina Fidèle Brice
Valerenga
🟨
45'
Carl Lange
Valerenga
VAR
45+6'
Ambina Fidèle Brice
Valerenga
🔄
46'
F. Ambina ↔ E. Sorensen
Valerenga
🔄
46'
E. Kitolano ↔ G. Nyheim
Lillestrom
🔄
79'
M. Grundetjern ↔ F. Thorvaldsen
Valerenga
🔄
80'
H. Sjatil ↔ V. Hedenstad
Valerenga
🔄
80'
Felix Va ↔ C. Jebara
Lillestrom
🔄
80'
T. Olsen ↔ K. Arierhi
Lillestrom
86'
M. Karlsbakk · Assist: Y. Ibrahimaj
Lillestrom
🔄
87'
Y. Paintsil ↔ S. Ottesen
Lillestrom
🟨
90+11'
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Valerenga
🟨
90+14'
Pontus Dahlberg
Lillestrom
🟨
90+11'
Ruben Gabrielsen
Lillestrom
🟨
90+10'
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim
Lillestrom
🟨
90'
Markus Karlsbakk
Lillestrom
🔄
90'
L. Haren ↔ P. Strand
Valerenga
🔄
90+1'
M. Westergaard ↔ O. T. Holm
Valerenga
🔄
90+6'
S. Drammeh ↔ U. Jenssen
Lillestrom
90'
K. Arierhi · Assist: G. Nyheim
Lillestrom

Valerenga vs Lillestrom Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
65.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Valerenga Win 43%
Draw 13.7%
Lillestrom Win 43.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valerenga1.85
Lillestrom1.81
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valerenga Valerenga
WWDLW
23 GF / 12 GA
Lillestrom Lillestrom
WLDWL
32 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
2.09
Average Goals Scored
2.29
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
5
BTTS Yes
9
5
Over 2.5
9
4.5
Shots on Goal
5.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valerenga Valerenga 11 matches
Lillestrom Lillestrom 14 matches
Valerenga Statistic Lillestrom
7 Wins 6
2 Draws 4
2 Losses 4
23 Goals For 32
12 Goals Against 21
2.09 Avg Goals Scored 2.29
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
5 BTTS Yes 9
7 Over 1.5 9
5 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 3
4.5 Shots On Goal 5.5
13.75 Total Shots 13.75
6.25 Corners 4.75
45.3% Ball Possession 49.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Lillestrom seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Lillestrom carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 10 points while Valerenga sit 4 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lillestrom. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Valerenga expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Lillestrom in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lillestrom having the stronger overall control.

Valerenga Analysis

Valerenga come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 7 points from 4 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, while the 3:0 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Lange (2 goals), I. Nasberg (1 goals), M. Grundetjern (1 goals), with creative support from K. Finnsson (1 assists), M. Westergaard (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with M. Ofkir unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Lillestrom Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 10 points from 4 games, Lillestrom bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 3:1, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through T. Olsen (3 goals), Felix Va (2 goals), M. Karlsbakk (2 goals), with creative support from T. Olsen (1 assists), Felix Va (1 assists), L. Ranger (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with F. Elkaer, K. Krygard, M. Waehler unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Valerenga won 4 times, Lillestrom won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:19 from Valerenga's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.54 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.3%)
Predicted formations: Valerenga 4-4-2 / Lillestrom 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Valerenga 1, Lillestrom 4
H2H summary: Valerenga wins 4, draws 3, Lillestrom wins 6

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 14 2 2 47:14 33 44
W W W W W
2 18 14 1 3 42:18 24 43
W L W W D
3 18 10 5 3 34:20 14 35
D L W W W
4 18 9 3 6 36:29 7 30
W W L D W
5 18 8 2 8 36:27 9 26
D W W L W
6 18 8 2 8 24:25 -1 26
L D L L L
7 18 8 2 8 22:28 -6 26
W W W W L
8 18 7 3 8 27:26 1 24
L W W L W
9 18 6 5 7 20:23 -3 23
D L L D W
10 18 6 5 7 26:32 -6 23
D L D W L
11 18 6 3 9 31:38 -7 21
L D L L W
12 18 5 4 9 15:23 -8 19
D W L L L
13 18 5 4 9 20:31 -11 19
L D W W L
14 18 4 4 10 17:29 -12 16
D L W L L
15 18 2 9 7 28:43 -15 15
L D D L D
16 18 3 4 11 20:39 -19 13
W L L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen