NORWAY ELITESERIEN
20.09.2026 12:30
Intility Arena
Referee: Sigurd Smehus Kringstad
Valerenga
Match Timeline
Fredrikstad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
45'
Odin Thiago Holm ↔ Magnus Westergaard
Valerenga
52'
Solomon Owusu · Assist: Samuel Holm
Fredrikstad
🔄
55'
Håvard Nielsen ↔ Petter Strand
Valerenga
🔄
55'
Kolbeinn Birgir Finnsson ↔ Dennis Gjengaar
Valerenga
🔄
61'
Bryan Fiabema ↔ Liam West
Fredrikstad
🔄
69'
Solomon Owusu ↔ Ulrik Tillung Fredriksen
Fredrikstad
🔄
73'
Ghayas Zahid ↔ Gabriel Rajkovic
Valerenga
76'
Sebastian Jarl · Assist: Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren
Valerenga
VAR
82'
Isak Helstad Amundsen
Fredrikstad
🟥
82'
Isak Helstad Amundsen
Fredrikstad
🔄
84'
Benjamin Thoresen Faraas ↔ Fanuel Ghebreyohannes
Fredrikstad
🔄
84'
Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren ↔ Elbasan Rashani
Valerenga
🟨
88'
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes
Fredrikstad

Valerenga vs Fredrikstad Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 42.9%
Odds 2.02
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.56
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
42.9%
2.02
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.56
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.09
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Valerenga Win 42.9%
Draw 17.8%
Fredrikstad Win 39.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valerenga1.71
Fredrikstad1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valerenga Valerenga
WWDLW
57 GF / 56 GA
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
WLDWL
42 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.9
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.87
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
18
BTTS Yes
19
19
Over 2.5
16
5.45
Shots on Goal
3.9

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valerenga Valerenga 30 matches
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 30 matches
Valerenga Statistic Fredrikstad
12 Wins 13
6 Draws 7
12 Losses 10
57 Goals For 42
56 Goals Against 43
1.9 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.87 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
18 BTTS Yes 19
25 Over 1.5 24
19 Over 2.5 16
15 Over 3.5 11
5 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 6
5.45 Shots On Goal 3.9
16.05 Total Shots 11.35
6.75 Corners 4.1
49.7% Ball Possession 47.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fredrikstad. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Valerenga expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Fredrikstad in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fredrikstad having the stronger overall control. Fredrikstad look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Valerenga Analysis

With 22 points from 20 games and a place of 11, Valerenga still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 33:42, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Haren (8 goals), M. Grundetjern (5 goals), C. Lange (4 goals), with creative support from H. Bjørdal (6 assists), M. Grundetjern (4 assists), K. Finnsson (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fredrikstad Analysis

So far, Fredrikstad have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 26 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, while the 23:30 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (3 goals), B. Thoresen (3 goals), D. Eid (2 goals), with creative support from H. Skogvold (2 assists), Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (1 assists), D. Eid (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Valerenga won 2 times, Fredrikstad won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:10 from Valerenga's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.2%)
Predicted formations: Valerenga 4-4-2 / Fredrikstad 3-4-3
Missing players: Valerenga 2, Fredrikstad 2
H2H summary: Valerenga wins 2, draws 3, Fredrikstad wins 3

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 16 2 3 54:20 34 50
W W D W L
2 21 16 2 3 53:19 34 50
L W W W W
3 21 11 5 5 40:29 11 38
W L L D L
4 21 11 3 7 44:32 12 36
L W W W W
5 21 10 3 8 39:30 9 33
W W W L W
6 21 10 2 9 28:29 -1 32
L W W L D
7 21 9 2 10 39:32 7 29
W L L D W
8 21 8 4 9 25:32 -7 28
D D L W W
9 21 6 7 8 24:29 -5 25
L D D D L
10 21 7 4 10 25:35 -10 25
W W L L D
11 21 6 5 10 21:27 -6 23
W L D D W
12 21 6 5 10 34:43 -9 23
D L D L D
13 21 6 5 10 29:44 -15 23
L L L D L
14 21 4 9 8 33:46 -13 21
W L W L D
15 21 5 4 12 21:40 -19 19
L L W D L
16 21 4 4 13 22:44 -22 16
L W L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen