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SPAIN › LA LIGA
17.10.2026 19:00
Estadio de Mestalla
Referee: Adrian Cordero Vega

Valencia vs Athletic Club Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 82.4%
Odds 2.36
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.16
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
82.4%
2.36 ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
1.95 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.16 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.27 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 0-3
-
21.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Valencia Win 8.8%
Draw 8.8%
Athletic Club Win 82.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valencia0.98
Athletic Club1.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valencia Valencia
WWDLW
15 GF / 25 GA
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WLDWL
34 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
2.13
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
8
BTTS Yes
5
9
Over 2.5
9
2.63
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valencia Valencia 15 matches
Athletic Club Athletic Club 16 matches
Valencia Statistic Athletic Club
3 Wins 8
3 Draws 3
9 Losses 5
15 Goals For 34
25 Goals Against 15
1 Avg Goals Scored 2.13
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
8 BTTS Yes 5
10 Over 1.5 13
9 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 9
5 Failed To Score 3
2.63 Shots On Goal 4.67
10.5 Total Shots 15.67
4.25 Corners 6.17
47.4% Ball Possession 52.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Athletic Club's more proactive style and Valencia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Athletic Club. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Valencia have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Valencia expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Athletic Club in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Athletic Club having the stronger overall control. Athletic Club carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 10 with 8 points while Valencia sit 19 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Valencia Analysis

With 4 points from 7 games and a place of 19, Valencia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 4:13, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Aaron Mayol (1 goals), Umar Sadiq (1 goals), Luis Rioja (1 goals), with creative support from Javi Guerra (1 assists), Hugo Duro (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Athletic Club Analysis

So far, Athletic Club have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 8 points from 6 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 7:6 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Robert Navarro (2 goals), I. Williams (1 goals), Álex Berenguer (1 goals), with creative support from I. Williams (2 assists), Álex Berenguer (1 assists), Ruíz de Galarreta (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Valencia won 4 times, Athletic Club won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:15 from Valencia's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (91.2%)
Predicted formations: Valencia 4-4-2 / Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Valencia 5, Athletic Club 4
H2H summary: Valencia wins 4, draws 5, Athletic Club wins 6

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 8 0 0 34:7 27 24
W W W W W
2 8 6 1 1 18:8 10 19
W W W W L
3 8 6 1 1 14:9 5 19
W D W W W
4 8 6 0 2 19:8 11 18
W L W W L
5 8 4 2 2 13:12 1 14
D L W W D
6 8 4 1 3 12:15 -3 13
W W L W D
7 8 3 2 3 12:8 4 11
L D L L W
8 9 2 5 2 13:12 1 11
D L D L D
9 8 1 5 2 8:6 2 8
D W D D D
10 6 2 2 2 7:6 1 8
D D W W
11 8 2 2 4 13:13 0 8
L W W L L
12 8 2 2 4 11:11 0 8
D L L W D
13 7 2 2 3 11:16 -5 8
D W L W
14 8 2 2 4 4:10 -6 8
L W L D D
15 8 2 2 4 13:23 -10 8
D L L W L
16 8 2 2 4 8:18 -10 8
L D L L L
17 8 1 4 3 12:16 -4 7
D D L L D
18 8 1 3 4 11:17 -6 6
D W L D L
19 8 1 2 5 6:15 -9 5
D L W L L
20 8 0 4 4 4:13 -9 4
D L L D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2