JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
19.09.2026 09:30
Peace Stadium

V-varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 46.3%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
46.3%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-3
-
-
Probability Distribution
V-varen Nagasaki Win 35.7%
Draw 18%
Cerezo Osaka Win 46.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
V-varen Nagasaki1.4
Cerezo Osaka1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
WWDLW
9 GF / 14 GA
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
WLDWL
6 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
0.86
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.57
4
BTTS Yes
2
5
Over 2.5
3
4.14
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 7 matches
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 7 matches
V-varen Nagasaki Statistic Cerezo Osaka
2 Wins 3
1 Draws 1
4 Losses 3
9 Goals For 6
14 Goals Against 11
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.57
4 BTTS Yes 2
6 Over 1.5 4
5 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 1
1 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 3
4.14 Shots On Goal 3
10.71 Total Shots 11.43
3.71 Corners 6.29
43.1% Ball Possession 56.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cerezo Osaka. Cerezo Osaka carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 10 points while V-varen Nagasaki sit 18 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. V-varen Nagasaki have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

With 4 points from 6 games and a place of 18, V-varen Nagasaki still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 7:14, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Thiago Santana (2 goals), Matheus Jesus (1 goals), K. Yasuda (1 goals), with creative support from H. Yamaguchi (1 assists), Y. Iwasaki (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cerezo Osaka Analysis

From their first 6 matches, Cerezo Osaka have collected 10 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 5:5 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on S. Sakuragawa (3 goals), Thiago Andrade (1 goals), Yumeki Yokoyama (1 goals), with creative support from J. Irvine (1 assists), S. Kagawa (1 assists), K. Okazawa (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, V-varen Nagasaki won 3 times, Cerezo Osaka won 5 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:13 from V-varen Nagasaki's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.1%)
Predicted formations: V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1 / Cerezo Osaka 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: V-varen Nagasaki wins 3, draws 0, Cerezo Osaka wins 5

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 2 0 19:6 13 17
D W W D W
2 7 5 1 1 11:5 6 16
W W W W L
3 7 5 0 2 13:10 3 15
W L L W W
4 7 4 2 1 19:6 13 14
W L W D D
5 7 4 2 1 13:8 5 14
W W D W W
6 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
W W W L D
7 7 3 3 1 13:9 4 12
W W L W D
8 7 4 0 3 14:13 1 12
L L L W W
9 7 3 2 2 11:9 2 11
D W D L W
10 7 3 1 3 6:11 -5 10
L D W L W
11 7 2 3 2 11:9 2 9
L D W D W
12 7 3 0 4 13:17 -4 9
L W W W L
13 7 2 1 4 4:7 -3 7
W L D L L
14 7 2 1 4 9:14 -5 7
W L D L L
15 7 1 3 3 8:13 -5 6
L L D D L
16 7 2 0 5 7:13 -6 6
L L L W W
17 7 1 2 4 9:14 -5 5
L L D W L
18 7 1 1 5 9:11 -2 4
L D L L L
19 7 0 4 3 3:9 -6 4
D D L L D
20 7 1 1 5 6:16 -10 4
D W L L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League