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24.10.2026 14:30
Stadion Galgenwaard

Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 69.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
69.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Utrecht Win 43.3%
Draw 25.9%
PEC Zwolle Win 30.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Utrecht1.81
PEC Zwolle1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Utrecht Utrecht
WWDLW
20 GF / 33 GA
PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle
WLDWL
15 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.15
2.36
Average Goals Conceded
2.38
10
BTTS Yes
6
11
Over 2.5
9
4.33
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Utrecht Utrecht 14 matches
PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 13 matches
Utrecht Statistic PEC Zwolle
4 Wins 3
2 Draws 1
8 Losses 9
20 Goals For 15
33 Goals Against 31
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
2.36 Avg Goals Conceded 2.38
10 BTTS Yes 6
11 Over 1.5 11
11 Over 2.5 9
7 Over 3.5 7
0 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 6
4.33 Shots On Goal 4.33
12.89 Total Shots 11.89
3.78 Corners 4.33
44.6% Ball Possession 40.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Utrecht expected to line up in 3-4-3 and PEC Zwolle in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward PEC Zwolle having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring PEC Zwolle. PEC Zwolle arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Utrecht Analysis

Utrecht are currently 13 in the standings with 8 points from 8 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 14:25 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Artem Stepanov (3 goals), Y. Cathline (2 goals), D. de Wit (2 goals), with creative support from Y. Cathline (2 assists), N. Vesterlund (2 assists), D. van den Berg (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

PEC Zwolle Analysis

PEC Zwolle sit 16 with 4 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 6:21, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through K. Kostons (2 goals), N. Viergever (1 goals), E. Sørensen (1 goals), with creative support from D. Mbayo (2 assists), T. Sommer (1 assists), T. Oosting (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Utrecht won 7 times, PEC Zwolle won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 35:20 from Utrecht's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.1%)
Predicted formations: Utrecht 3-4-3 / PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Utrecht wins 7, draws 6, PEC Zwolle wins 2

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 2 0 31:10 21 23
W W W W W
2 9 6 2 1 20:10 10 20
D L W D W
3 9 6 1 2 27:12 15 19
L W L W W
4 9 5 3 1 27:12 15 18
W D D W W
5 9 5 2 2 17:10 7 17
L D W W W
6 9 4 3 2 16:17 -1 15
D D W L W
7 9 4 2 3 22:19 3 14
L W W D D
8 9 3 3 3 15:11 4 12
W L W D L
9 9 2 5 2 20:21 -1 11
L D D D D
10 9 3 2 4 16:18 -2 11
L L D L D
11 9 3 2 4 16:26 -10 11
W W L W D
12 9 2 4 3 15:16 -1 10
D D D L D
13 9 2 3 4 16:22 -6 9
W D L L D
14 9 2 3 4 13:21 -8 9
D W D W D
15 9 2 1 6 10:22 -12 7
W L L L D
16 9 1 3 5 10:18 -8 6
L D L D L
17 9 1 3 5 11:20 -9 6
W D D L L
18 9 0 2 7 9:26 -17 2
L L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie