URUGUAY SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 48.3%
Odds 2.47
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.88
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.29
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
48.3%
2.47
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.88
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.29
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.35
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Uruguay Montevideo Win 37.5%
Draw 14.2%
CA River Plate Win 48.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Uruguay Montevideo1.36
CA River Plate1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Montevideo
WWDLW
17 GF / 20 GA
CA River Plate CA River Plate
WLDWL
23 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.81
9
BTTS Yes
11
5
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Montevideo 16 matches
CA River Plate CA River Plate 16 matches
Uruguay Montevideo Statistic CA River Plate
4 Wins 6
5 Draws 3
7 Losses 7
17 Goals For 23
20 Goals Against 29
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.81
9 BTTS Yes 11
12 Over 1.5 13
5 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by CA River Plate's more proactive style and Uruguay Montevideo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Uruguay Montevideo have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. CA River Plate carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 17 points while Uruguay Montevideo sit 14 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward CA River Plate having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring CA River Plate. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Uruguay Montevideo Analysis

Uruguay Montevideo approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 8 points from 10 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats with a 10:15 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

CA River Plate Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 17 points from 10 games, CA River Plate bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 17:16, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.8%)
Last matches: Uruguay Montevideo
12.07.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Oriental
1
1
D
05.07.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Colón
0
1
L
27.06.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Fenix
3
2
W
21.06.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Rentistas
0
1
L
13.06.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Miramar
1
3
L
07.06.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Tacuarembo
0
1
L
30.05.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
La Luz
0
2
L
16.05.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Cerrito
2
2
D
08.05.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Atenas
1
2
L
26.04.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
11.04.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
La Luz
2
0
W
06.04.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Cerrito
1
2
L
31.03.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Atenas
1
0
W
22.03.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Sportivo Huracan
1
1
D
15.03.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Fenix
1
1
D
25.10.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Tacuarembo
0
0
D
17.10.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Rentistas
3
1
W
11.10.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
La Luz
0
0
D
05.10.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Cerrito
1
2
L
Last matches: CA River Plate
11.07.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Plaza Colonia
3
2
W
04.07.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Oriental
2
1
W
28.06.26
Seg
CA River Plate
La Luz
0
0
D
20.06.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Colón
1
2
L
14.06.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Cerrito
6
4
W
06.06.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Fenix
1
3
L
31.05.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Atenas
0
2
L
23.05.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Rentistas
2
1
W
16.05.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Paysandu
1
0
W
10.05.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Miramar
1
1
D
26.04.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Paysandu
2
1
W
12.04.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Colón
2
4
L
06.04.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Miramar
0
1
L
28.03.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Plaza Colonia
0
3
L
23.03.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Rentistas
1
1
D
14.03.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Oriental
1
3
L
08.11.25
Pri
CA River Plate
Wanderers
4
0
W
02.11.25
Pri
CA River Plate
Miramar
1
1
D
26.10.25
Pri
CA River Plate
Danubio
1
0
W
19.10.25
Pri
CA River Plate
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
Last matches: Uruguay Montevideo
12.07.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Oriental
1
1
D
27.06.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Fenix
3
2
W
13.06.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Miramar
1
3
L
30.05.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
16.05.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Cerrito
2
2
D
26.04.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
22.03.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Sportivo Huracan
1
1
D
15.03.26
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Fenix
1
1
D
25.10.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Tacuarembo
0
0
D
11.10.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
La Luz
0
0
D
27.09.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Colón
0
1
L
14.09.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Oriental
0
4
L
07.09.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Artigas
1
4
L
24.08.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Fenix
0
1
L
16.08.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Atenas
1
2
L
26.07.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Rentistas
1
3
L
12.07.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Cerrito
0
0
D
28.06.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
1
3
L
08.06.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Albion FC
0
3
L
31.05.25
Seg
Uruguay Montevideo
Rampla Juniors
2
1
W
Last matches: CA River Plate
04.07.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Oriental
2
1
W
20.06.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Colón
1
2
L
06.06.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Fenix
1
3
L
23.05.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Rentistas
2
1
W
10.05.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Miramar
1
1
D
12.04.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Colón
2
4
L
06.04.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Miramar
0
1
L
28.03.26
Seg
CA River Plate
Plaza Colonia
0
3
L
08.11.25
Pri
CA River Plate
Wanderers
4
0
W
26.10.25
Pri
CA River Plate
Danubio
1
0
W
12.10.25
Pri
CA River Plate
Juventud
2
1
W
28.09.25
Pri
CA River Plate
Plaza Colonia
1
1
D
06.09.25
Pri
CA River Plate
Boston River
0
2
L
24.08.25
Pri
CA River Plate
Penarol
0
2
L
11.08.25
Pri
CA River Plate
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.47
Draw 3.04
Home 2.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.25 1.27
Over 1.5 1.39
Over 1.75 1.50
Over 2.0 1.69
Over 2.25 2.02
Over 2.5 2.29
Over 2.75 2.68
Over 3.0 3.45
Under 1.25 3.48
Under 1.5 2.80
Under 1.75 2.45
Under 2.0 2.10
Under 2.25 1.79
Under 2.5 1.59
Under 2.75 1.43
Under 3.0 1.27
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.35
Draw 3.20
Home 2.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.00
Home 3.40
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.5 2.25
Under 2.5 1.62
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 2.97
Home 2.87
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.14
Draw 1.90
Home 3.78
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.77
Draw 2.23
Home 3.34
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.0 1.07
Over 1.25 1.22
Over 1.5 1.37
Over 1.75 1.47
Over 2.0 1.64
Over 2.25 1.94
Over 2.5 2.23
Over 2.75 2.56
Over 3.0 3.28
Over 3.25 3.70
Over 3.5 4.05
Over 3.75 4.71
Over 4.0 7.40
Over 4.5 9.00
Over 5.5 21.00
Under 0.5 6.89
Under 1.0 5.90
Under 1.25 3.50
Under 1.5 2.66
Under 1.75 2.35
Under 2.0 2.02
Under 2.25 1.75
Under 2.5 1.57
Under 2.75 1.40
Under 3.0 1.25
Under 3.25 1.20
Under 3.5 1.16
Under 3.75 1.12
Under 4.0 1.03
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.06
Draw 3.00
Home 3.30
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.02
Home 3.80
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.43
Draw 2.35
Home 3.55
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 2.5 2.12
Over 3.5 3.70
Over 4.5 7.00
Under 1.5 2.75
Under 2.5 1.58
Under 3.5 1.20
Under 4.5 1.06

Standings

Segunda Division: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 18:11 7 19
L D W W W
2 10 5 3 2 15:13 2 18
W D W L L
3 10 5 2 3 17:16 1 17
W W D L W
4 10 4 3 3 10:9 1 15
W W D W D
5 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W L W W L
6 10 4 2 4 8:10 -2 14
L D L W L
7 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
L W L D D
8 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
L D W L W
9 10 3 4 3 8:8 0 13
W L D W L
10 10 4 1 5 10:11 -1 13
L W L L W
11 10 2 6 2 15:13 2 12
D L D D W
12 10 3 3 4 8:12 -4 12
L L L W W
13 10 3 1 6 12:15 -3 10
W W L L L
14 10 2 2 6 10:15 -5 8
D L W L L
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Apertura)