JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
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Saitama Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Urawa Win 50.6%
Draw 16.4%
Fagiano Okayama Win 33%
Expected Goals (xG)
Urawa1.4
Fagiano Okayama1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Urawa Urawa
WWDLW
30 GF / 21 GA
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama
WLDWL
25 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
11
BTTS Yes
13
7
Over 2.5
8
4.21
Shots on Goal
3.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Urawa Urawa 21 matches
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 20 matches
Urawa Statistic Fagiano Okayama
9 Wins 6
5 Draws 7
7 Losses 7
30 Goals For 25
21 Goals Against 27
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
11 BTTS Yes 13
16 Over 1.5 16
7 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 2
4.21 Shots On Goal 3.63
13.53 Total Shots 12.16
5.11 Corners 5.32
53.3% Ball Possession 41%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Urawa's more proactive style and Fagiano Okayama's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Fagiano Okayama. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Urawa expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Fagiano Okayama in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fagiano Okayama having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Urawa Analysis

From their first 18 matches, Urawa have collected 25 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 25:22 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through R. Hidano (4 goals), H. Komori (3 goals), R. Watanabe (3 goals), with creative support from Matheus Sávio (5 assists), J. Hayakawa (3 assists), S. Nakajima (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Fagiano Okayama Analysis

Fagiano Okayama sit 6 with 26 points after 18 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 0 draws, and 10 losses, while the 26:29 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Leo Gaucho (4 goals), A. Esaka (3 goals), Takaya Kimura (3 goals), with creative support from A. Esaka (3 assists), K. Shirai (3 assists), Werik Popo (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Urawa won 2 times, Fagiano Okayama won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:1 from Urawa's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.6%)
Predicted formations: Urawa 4-2-3-1 / Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Urawa wins 2, draws 1, Fagiano Okayama wins 0
Last matches: Urawa
31.05.26
J1
Urawa
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
22.05.26
J1
Urawa
Machida Zelvia
0
1
L
16.05.26
J1
Urawa
FC Tokyo
0
0
D
09.05.26
J1
Urawa
Mito Hollyhock
4
1
W
06.05.26
J1
Urawa
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
02.05.26
J1
Urawa
JEF United Chiba
2
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Urawa
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0
W
25.04.26
J1
Urawa
Yokohama F. Marinos
2
3
L
18.04.26
J1
Urawa
Kashima
0
1
L
12.04.26
J1
Urawa
Tokyo Verdy
1
1
D
05.04.26
J1
Urawa
Kawasaki Frontale
2
3
L
22.03.26
J1
Urawa
Machida Zelvia
1
2
L
18.03.26
J1
Urawa
Kashiwa Reysol
1
1
D
14.03.26
J1
Urawa
Tokyo Verdy
0
1
L
07.03.26
J1
Urawa
Mito Hollyhock
2
0
W
28.02.26
J1
Urawa
Kashima
2
3
L
21.02.26
J1
Urawa
Yokohama F. Marinos
2
0
W
14.02.26
J1
Urawa
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
07.02.26
J1
Urawa
JEF United Chiba
2
0
W
20.01.26
Fri
Urawa
Kyoto Sanga
2
1
W
Last matches: Fagiano Okayama
31.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
1
1
D
24.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
L
17.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
10.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
3
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
1
2
L
02.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
2
0
W
19.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
2
2
D
11.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
5
L
05.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
1
4
L
21.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
L
18.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
08.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
0
W
01.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
22.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
1
2
L
14.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
1
D
08.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
20.01.26
Fri
Fagiano Okayama
Kashima
0
1
L
H2H: Urawa vs Fagiano Okayama
31.05.26
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
1
1
D
30.11.25
H2H
Fagiano Okayama
Urawa
0
1
W
08.03.25
H2H
Urawa
Fagiano Okayama
1
0
W
Last matches: Urawa
16.05.26
J1
Urawa
FC Tokyo
0
0
D
02.05.26
J1
Urawa
JEF United Chiba
2
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Urawa
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0
W
25.04.26
J1
Urawa
Yokohama F. Marinos
2
3
L
12.04.26
J1
Urawa
Tokyo Verdy
1
1
D
22.03.26
J1
Urawa
Machida Zelvia
1
2
L
18.03.26
J1
Urawa
Kashiwa Reysol
1
1
D
07.03.26
J1
Urawa
Mito Hollyhock
2
0
W
28.02.26
J1
Urawa
Kashima
2
3
L
20.01.26
Fri
Urawa
Kyoto Sanga
2
1
W
16.01.26
Fri
Urawa
Consadole Sapporo
2
1
W
H2H at home: Urawa
08.03.25
H2H
Urawa
Fagiano Okayama
1
0
W
Last matches: Fagiano Okayama
10.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Vissel Kobe
3
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
V-varen Nagasaki
1
2
L
29.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
19.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Gamba Osaka
2
2
D
11.04.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Kyoto Sanga
1
5
L
18.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Cerezo Osaka
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Shimizu S-pulse
1
1
D
14.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
1
D
08.02.26
J1
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
1
1
D
20.01.26
Fri
Fagiano Okayama
Kashima
0
1
L
H2H away: Fagiano Okayama
08.03.25
H2H
Urawa
Fagiano Okayama
1
0
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 0 3 31:11 20 45
W W W W W
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
W L W L W
2 18 13 0 5 32:18 14 37
L W W L W
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
W W W L W
3 18 13 0 5 28:22 6 37
W L W W W
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
L L W W W
4 18 10 0 8 26:28 -2 28
W W L W L
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
W W W L L
5 18 10 0 8 22:26 -4 28
L W L L L
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
W L L W L
6
Urawa Home
18 7 0 11 25:22 3 25
L L W W W
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
L W W L W
7 18 6 0 12 28:31 -3 20
W L L L L
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
L L W W W
8 18 7 0 11 22:24 -2 20
W W W L L
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
W L L L L
9 18 6 0 12 23:39 -16 18
L L L L W
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
L W L W L
10 18 3 0 15 18:34 -16 12
L L L W L
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
L L W L W