UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Hamz Stadium
URA
Match Timeline
Calvary
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
26'
R. Otti
URA
40'
L. Olaboro
Calvary

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 48.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
90.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
48.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
82.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
URA Win 90.5%
Draw 9.5%
Calvary Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
URA1.05
Calvary0.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
URA URA
WWDLW
23 GF / 29 GA
Calvary Calvary
WLDWL
11 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
0.85
Average Goals Scored
0.42
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
11
BTTS Yes
5
8
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

URA URA 27 matches
Calvary Calvary 26 matches
URA Statistic Calvary
4 Wins 3
14 Draws 7
9 Losses 16
23 Goals For 11
29 Goals Against 35
0.85 Avg Goals Scored 0.42
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
11 BTTS Yes 5
14 Over 1.5 10
8 Over 2.5 5
4 Over 3.5 5
10 Clean Sheets 9
14 Failed To Score 18
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Calvary having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Calvary.

URA Analysis

From their first 27 matches, URA have collected 26 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 14 draws, and 9 losses, while the 23:29 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Living (5 goals), F. Amaku (4 goals), M. Aliro (3 goals), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Calvary Analysis

Calvary approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 16 points from 27 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 7 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 11:38, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Olaboro (6 goals), S. Oriokot (2 goals), E. Ojok (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, URA won 0 times, Calvary won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from URA's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
H2H summary: URA wins 0, draws 2, Calvary wins 0
Last matches: URA
22.05.26
Pre
URA
Buhimba Saints
3
0
W
19.05.26
Pre
URA
KCCA
0
0
D
08.05.26
Pre
URA
Vipers
1
1
D
28.04.26
Pre
URA
Maroons
2
2
D
24.04.26
Pre
URA
UPDF
0
0
D
21.04.26
Pre
URA
Police
1
2
L
16.04.26
Pre
URA
BUL
1
1
D
09.04.26
Pre
URA
NEC
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pre
URA
Express
1
3
L
11.03.26
Pre
URA
Lugazi
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pre
URA
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
04.03.26
Pre
URA
Mbarara City
2
0
W
19.02.26
Pre
URA
Kitara
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pre
URA
SC Villa
0
0
D
31.01.26
Pre
URA
Police
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
URA
Calvary
0
0
D
24.01.26
Pre
URA
Vipers
0
3
L
13.01.26
Pre
URA
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
URA
Mbarara City
0
1
L
11.12.25
Pre
URA
SC Villa
0
3
L
Last matches: Calvary
23.05.26
Pre
Calvary
NEC
2
0
W
19.05.26
Pre
Calvary
UPDF
0
0
D
06.05.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
1
0
W
29.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
Calvary
KCCA
1
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Kitara
0
0
D
15.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Lugazi
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Maroons
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
1
5
L
18.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Express
0
0
D
12.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Kitara
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
Calvary
URA
0
0
D
21.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
0
2
L
07.01.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Calvary
SC Villa
0
1
L
13.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
1
1
D
09.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
0
D
H2H: URA vs Calvary
12.05.26
H2H
URA
Calvary
1
1
D
27.01.26
H2H
Calvary
URA
0
0
D
Last matches: URA
19.05.26
Pre
URA
KCCA
0
0
D
28.04.26
Pre
URA
Maroons
2
2
D
16.04.26
Pre
URA
BUL
1
1
D
11.03.26
Pre
URA
Lugazi
1
0
W
04.03.26
Pre
URA
Mbarara City
2
0
W
14.02.26
Pre
URA
SC Villa
0
0
D
31.01.26
Pre
URA
Police
0
0
D
24.01.26
Pre
URA
Vipers
0
3
L
13.01.26
Pre
URA
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
04.12.25
Pre
URA
Kitara
0
1
L
26.11.25
Pre
URA
Buhimba Saints
7
3
W
29.10.25
Pre
URA
UPDF
3
2
W
17.10.25
Pre
URA
Express
1
1
D
02.10.25
Pre
URA
NEC
1
1
D
H2H at home: URA
12.05.26
H2H
URA
Calvary
1
1
D
Last matches: Calvary
19.05.26
Pre
Calvary
UPDF
0
0
D
29.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
22.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Kitara
0
0
D
14.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
1
5
L
12.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
0
1
L
21.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
0
2
L
17.12.25
Pre
Calvary
SC Villa
0
1
L
04.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Express
0
4
L
25.11.25
Pre
Calvary
NEC
0
1
L
31.10.25
Pre
Calvary
KCCA
2
4
L
22.10.25
Pre
Calvary
Maroons
0
0
D
04.10.25
Pre
Calvary
Buhimba Saints
0
2
L
26.09.25
Pre
Calvary
Lugazi
1
3
L
H2H away: Calvary
12.05.26
H2H
URA
Calvary
1
1
D

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11
URA Home
30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League