PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Monumental
Referee: S. Lozano
Universitario
Match Timeline
Atletico Grau
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
Matías Di Benedetto
Universitario
VAR
32'
Andy Polo
Universitario
🟥
33'
Andy Polo
Universitario
🟨
46'
Rafael Guarderas
Atletico Grau
🔄
46'
E. Flores ↔ H. Fertoli
Universitario
🔄
46'
A. Vasquez ↔ P. de la Cruz
Atletico Grau
46'
R. Ruidiaz · Assist: R. Guarderas
Atletico Grau
VAR
48'
Raúl Ruidíaz
Atletico Grau
🟨
55'
Lucas Acevedo
Atletico Grau
🟨
58'
Jorge Murrugarra
Universitario
🔄
64'
J. Murrugarra ↔ J. Castillo
Universitario
🔄
64'
M. Perez Guedes ↔ B. Reyna
Universitario
🔄
68'
G. E. Alfaro Martinez ↔ E. Rodas
Atletico Grau
🔄
79'
L. Alzugaray ↔ J. Rivera
Universitario
🔄
82'
C. Neira ↔ N. Delgadillo
Atletico Grau
🔄
82'
R. Ruidiaz ↔ I. Camargo
Atletico Grau

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 91.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
91.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Universitario Win 91.8%
Draw 0%
Atletico Grau Win 8.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universitario1.43
Atletico Grau0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universitario Universitario
WWDLW
33 GF / 22 GA
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
WLDWL
10 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
0.71
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
11
BTTS Yes
5
11
Over 2.5
5
4.33
Shots on Goal
4.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universitario Universitario 21 matches
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 14 matches
Universitario Statistic Atletico Grau
10 Wins 2
5 Draws 4
6 Losses 8
33 Goals For 10
22 Goals Against 17
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 0.71
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
11 BTTS Yes 5
15 Over 1.5 7
11 Over 2.5 5
6 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 8
4.33 Shots On Goal 4.14
13.72 Total Shots 11.79
6 Corners 4.71
52.4% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Universitario's more proactive style and Atletico Grau's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Universitario expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Atletico Grau in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Grau having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Universitario arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 24 points compared to Atletico Grau in 18 on 10, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Atletico Grau arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Atletico Grau.

Universitario Analysis

Universitario come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 24 points after 13 matches. The return of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 22:13, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through A. Valera (7 goals), Edison Flores (3 goals), C. Fara (2 goals), with creative support from J. Concha (5 assists), J. Carabali (3 assists), A. Polo (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Atletico Grau Analysis

Atletico Grau sit 18 with 10 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 10:17 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Isaac Camargo (2 goals), R. Ruidiaz (2 goals), A. Vasquez (1 goals), with creative support from C. Neira (2 assists), Elsar Rodas (1 assists), Rafael Guarderas (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Universitario won 8 times, Atletico Grau won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:7 from Universitario's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Universitario 3-5-2 / Atletico Grau 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Universitario wins 8, draws 2, Atletico Grau wins 1
Stats
Universitario Universitario
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
0
8 Corner Kicks 0
8 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 2
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Goal 1
7 Shots off Goal 3
5 Blocked Shots 0
8 Shots insidebox 2
7 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
453 Total passes 273
377 Passes accurate 203
1.31 expected_goals 0.34
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Universitario
Formation
Atletico Grau
M. Vargas
M. Vargas
C. Fara
C. Fara
W. Riveros
W. Riveros
M. Di Benedetto
M. Di Benedetto
J. Murrugarra
J. Murrugarra
A. Polo
A. Polo
M. Perez Guedes
M. Perez Guedes
J. Concha
J. Concha
C. Inga
C. Inga
L. Alzugaray
L. Alzugaray
E. Flores
E. Flores
P. Alvarez
P. Alvarez
R. Tapia
R. Tapia
L. Acevedo
L. Acevedo
I. Tapia
I. Tapia
D. Rodriguez
D. Rodriguez
R. Guarderas
🎯
R. Guarderas
A. de la Cruz
A. de la Cruz
G. E. Alfaro Martinez
G. E. Alfaro Martinez
A. Vasquez
A. Vasquez
R. Ruidiaz
R. Ruidiaz
C. Neira
C. Neira
Universitario 3-1-4-2
Starting XI
25
M. Vargas
G
2
C. Fara
D
3
W. Riveros
D
5
M. Di Benedetto
🟨 25'
D
23
J. Murrugarra
↓ 64' 🟨 58'
M
24
A. Polo
🟥 33'
M
16
M. Perez Guedes
↓ 64'
M
17
J. Concha
M
33
C. Inga
M
30
L. Alzugaray
↓ 79'
F
19
E. Flores
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
1
D. Romero
G
29
A. Corzo
D
4
A. Santamaria
D
8
H. Fertoli
↑ 46'
M
11
J. Rivera
↑ 79'
F
6
J. Castillo
↑ 64'
M
77
B. Reyna
↑ 64'
F
99
Miguel Silveira
M
14
P. Reyna
D
Atletico Grau 3-4-3
Starting XI
1
P. Alvarez
G
27
R. Tapia
D
2
L. Acevedo
🟨 55'
D
3
I. Tapia
D
4
D. Rodriguez
M
5
R. Guarderas
🎯 46' 🟨 46'
M
66
A. de la Cruz
M
25
G. E. Alfaro Martinez
↓ 68'
M
20
A. Vasquez
↓ 46'
F
9
R. Ruidiaz
⚽ 46' ↓ 82'
F
22
C. Neira
↓ 82'
F
Substitutes
12
A. Fuentes
G
10
P. de la Cruz
↑ 46'
M
29
E. Franco
M
6
E. Rodas
↑ 68'
D
11
N. Delgadillo
↑ 82'
F
19
I. Camargo
↑ 82'
F
24
Y. Ruidiaz
F
16
J. Ataupillco
D
21
E. Correa
M
Last matches: Universitario
31.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Universitario
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
20.05.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Boys
0
0
D
08.05.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
30.04.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
4
2
W
26.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Alianza Atletico
1
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Deportivo Garcilaso
4
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Universitario
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
15.04.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
0
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
05.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Alianza Lima
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
Universitario
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
3
L
01.03.26
Pri
Universitario
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Sporting Cristal
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Cienciano
2
1
W
Last matches: Atletico Grau
29.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
UCV Moquegua
1
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Cusco
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Cienciano
1
2
L
02.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
ADT
0
1
L
26.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
22.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sporting Cristal
4
1
W
17.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Alianza Atletico
2
2
D
22.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Comerciantes Unidos
1
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sport Boys
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sport Huancayo
0
0
D
30.01.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
UTC Cajamarca
0
2
L
H2H: Universitario vs Atletico Grau
16.05.26
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
01.08.25
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
3
1
W
26.06.25
H2H
Atletico Grau
Universitario
0
2
W
21.07.24
H2H
Atletico Grau
Universitario
1
1
D
04.02.24
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
27.08.23
H2H
Atletico Grau
Universitario
2
2
D
09.04.23
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
2
1
W
18.09.22
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
2
0
W
01.05.22
H2H
Atletico Grau
Universitario
0
1
W
24.10.20
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
2
1
W
18.10.20
H2H
Atletico Grau
Universitario
0
0
D
25.09.20
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
2
0
W
Last matches: Universitario
31.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
30.04.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
4
2
W
26.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Alianza Atletico
1
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Deportivo Garcilaso
4
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
0
2
L
05.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Alianza Lima
1
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Universitario
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Universitario
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
14.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Cienciano
2
1
W
01.02.26
Pri
Universitario
ADT
2
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
Universitario
Universidad de Chile
3
0
W
20.01.26
Fri
Universitario
FBC Melgar
3
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Universitario
Sport Boys
0
1
L
H2H at home: Universitario
16.05.26
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
01.08.25
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
3
1
W
04.02.24
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
09.04.23
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
2
1
W
18.09.22
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
2
0
W
24.10.20
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
2
1
W
25.09.20
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
2
0
W
Last matches: Atletico Grau
23.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Cusco
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
ADT
0
1
L
17.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Alianza Atletico
2
2
D
15.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
01.03.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Comerciantes Unidos
1
3
L
14.02.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
Sport Boys
0
1
L
30.01.26
Pri
Atletico Grau
UTC Cajamarca
0
2
L
H2H away: Atletico Grau
16.05.26
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
0
1
W
01.08.25
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
3
1
L
04.02.24
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
1
0
L
09.04.23
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
2
1
L
18.09.22
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
2
0
L
24.10.20
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
2
1
L
25.09.20
H2H
Universitario
Atletico Grau
2
0
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
?
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
?
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
?
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
?
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
?
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
?
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
?
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
?
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
?
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
?
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
?
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
?
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
?
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
?
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
?
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
?
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
?
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
?