13.09.2026 21:15
Referee: B. Rueda
Universitario de Vinto
Match Timeline
Independiente Petrolero
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
J. Calicho
Independiente Petrolero
VAR
36'
Hugo Dorrego
Universitario de Vinto
40'
Hugo Dorrego
Universitario de Vinto
44'
H. Rodriguez
Universitario de Vinto
🔄
46'
L. Montenegro ↔ D. Morales
Independiente Petrolero
48'
J. Calicho · Assist: G. Cuellar
Universitario de Vinto
🟨
55'
José Pinto
Universitario de Vinto
🔄
56'
R. Cardozo ↔ A. Mercado
Independiente Petrolero
🟨
64'
Joel Calicho
Universitario de Vinto
🔄
65'
J. Calicho ↔ D. Torrico
Universitario de Vinto
🔄
66'
G. Alvarez ↔ Jeferson Carioca
Independiente Petrolero
🟨
70'
Alan Mercado
Independiente Petrolero
🟨
73'
Gustavo Mendoza
Independiente Petrolero
🔄
74'
H. Dorrego ↔ F. Pasadore
Universitario de Vinto
🔄
79'
G. Cristaldo ↔ R. E. Rocabado Concha
Independiente Petrolero
🟨
80'
Lazaro Crecencio
Independiente Petrolero
🔄
86'
Esdras Mendoza ↔ D. Vargas
Universitario de Vinto
🔄
87'
O. Blanco ↔ B. Calderon
Universitario de Vinto
🟨
90+5'
Felipe Pasadore
Universitario de Vinto
90'
G. Cuellar · Assist: F. Pasadore
Universitario de Vinto

Universitario de Vinto vs Independiente Petrolero Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56.6%
Odds 3.02
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.60
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56.6%
3.02
BTTS Yes
71%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.60
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.29
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
9.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Universitario de Vinto Win 24.8%
Draw 18.6%
Independiente Petrolero Win 56.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universitario de Vinto1.55
Independiente Petrolero1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universitario de Vinto Universitario de Vinto
WWDLW
32 GF / 46 GA
Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero
WLDWL
25 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.25
2.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
14
BTTS Yes
12
13
Over 2.5
16
3.83
Shots on Goal
2.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universitario de Vinto Universitario de Vinto 22 matches
Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 20 matches
Universitario de Vinto Statistic Independiente Petrolero
5 Wins 7
3 Draws 4
14 Losses 9
32 Goals For 25
46 Goals Against 34
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
2.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
14 BTTS Yes 12
20 Over 1.5 17
13 Over 2.5 16
8 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 6
3.83 Shots On Goal 2.17
10.06 Total Shots 5.94
3.39 Corners 1.94
34% Ball Possession 25.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Universitario de Vinto expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Independiente Petrolero in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente Petrolero having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Independiente Petrolero. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Universitario de Vinto have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Independiente Petrolero carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 25 points while Universitario de Vinto sit 16 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Universitario de Vinto Analysis

Universitario de Vinto sit 16 with 14 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 22:37, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through J. Torrico (1 goals), J. Calicho (1 goals), A. Jara (1 goals), with creative support from J. Torrico (2 assists), Hugo Dorrego (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independiente Petrolero Analysis

So far, Independiente Petrolero have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 25 points from 17 matches. The record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 25:25 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Willie (5 goals), Roberto Villavicencio (1 goals), Jonathan Cristaldo (1 goals), with creative support from Roberto Villavicencio (2 assists), Jonathan Cristaldo (1 assists), Rudy Cardozo (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Universitario de Vinto won 6 times, Independiente Petrolero won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:17 from Universitario de Vinto's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.4%)
Predicted formations: Universitario de Vinto 4-4-2 / Independiente Petrolero 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Universitario de Vinto wins 6, draws 3, Independiente Petrolero wins 6

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 13 6 1 47:13 34 45
W W W D D
2 20 14 3 3 54:22 32 45
W W W W W
3 20 12 6 2 39:22 17 42
W W W W W
4 20 8 8 4 27:14 13 32
W W D L D
5 20 9 3 8 36:27 9 30
W L L D W
6 20 7 9 4 31:27 4 30
L W W D D
7 20 8 5 7 32:39 -7 29
W L D L D
8 20 6 9 5 30:22 8 27
D W L D D
9 20 8 3 9 30:28 2 27
L W W L W
10 20 7 4 9 27:35 -8 25
L L L W L
11 20 6 3 11 32:50 -18 21
L L W D L
12 20 6 2 12 31:45 -14 20
L L W L D
13 20 6 2 12 21:40 -19 20
W L L L L
14 20 5 3 12 26:39 -13 18
D W L W L
15 20 4 4 12 15:39 -24 16
L L L W D
16 20 2 8 10 21:37 -16 14
L L L D D