POLAND EKSTRAKLASA
20.09.2026 10:15
Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach

Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.5%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Piast Gliwice Win 59.5%
Draw 14.8%
Pogon Szczecin Win 25.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Piast Gliwice1.14
Pogon Szczecin1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice
WWDLW
19 GF / 25 GA
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin
WLDWL
21 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
5
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
7
5
Shots on Goal
4.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 16 matches
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 15 matches
Piast Gliwice Statistic Pogon Szczecin
6 Wins 7
3 Draws 4
7 Losses 4
19 Goals For 21
25 Goals Against 16
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
5 BTTS Yes 6
13 Over 1.5 11
6 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 6
5 Shots On Goal 4.86
14 Total Shots 14.14
5.29 Corners 3.71
56.1% Ball Possession 44.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Pogon Szczecin's more proactive style and Piast Gliwice's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Pogon Szczecin. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Piast Gliwice expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Pogon Szczecin in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Pogon Szczecin having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Piast Gliwice Analysis

Piast Gliwice sit 8 with 10 points after 7 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, while the 13:13 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Leandro Sanca (2 goals), Juande Rivas (1 goals), Hugo Vallejo (1 goals), with creative support from S. Ntamack Ndimba (1 assists), Q. Boisgard (1 assists), Ivan Lima (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Pogon Szczecin Analysis

From their first 6 matches, Pogon Szczecin have collected 9 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. The record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 8:5 goal balance, points toward mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through P. Mukairu (1 goals), Léo Borges (1 goals), Linus Wahlqvist (1 goals), with creative support from P. Mukairu (1 assists), M. Wojciechowski (1 assists), B. Mendy (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Piast Gliwice won 4 times, Pogon Szczecin won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:14 from Piast Gliwice's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.3%)
Predicted formations: Piast Gliwice 4-4-2 / Pogon Szczecin 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Piast Gliwice wins 4, draws 4, Pogon Szczecin wins 7

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 0 1 14:8 6 18
W W W L W
2 8 4 4 0 16:7 9 16
D W D D W
3 7 5 1 1 12:6 6 16
L W W W W
4 8 4 2 2 15:11 4 14
W D W D L
5 7 3 3 1 10:5 5 12
W D D D W
6 7 3 3 1 9:6 3 12
W D W D W
7 7 3 3 1 8:6 2 12
W D D D W
8 7 4 0 3 11:10 1 12
L W L W L
9 7 3 1 3 13:13 0 10
W W D L L
10 7 3 0 4 13:11 2 9
L L W W L
11 8 1 5 2 11:11 0 8
D D L D L
12 8 2 2 4 7:11 -4 8
L L L W W
13 7 2 2 3 7:12 -5 8
W D L L L
14 7 2 2 3 6:13 -7 8
D W D L L
15 8 1 3 4 10:13 -3 6
L L D D L
16 8 1 2 5 9:15 -6 5
L L L D W
17 7 1 1 5 9:15 -6 4
L D L L W
18 7 1 0 6 8:15 -7 3
W L L L L
Qualifying
EL Qualification
Play-offs
Relegation