CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos
Referee: Mario Salvo Sepulveda, Chile
Universidad de Chile
Match Timeline
Concepción
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
Lucas Barrera
Universidad de Chile
🟨
21'
Eduardo Vargas
Universidad de Chile
VAR
22'
Maximiliano Guerrero
Universidad de Chile
24'
Eduardo Vargas
Universidad de Chile
🟨
44'
Ignacio Vásquez
Universidad de Chile
🔄
46'
A. Jara ↔ M. Sandoval
Concepción
🔄
56'
E. Espinoza ↔ A. Gillard
Concepción
🟨
58'
Yonathan Rodríguez
Concepción
59'
M. Sandoval
Concepción
🔄
63'
I. A. Vasquez Gonzalez ↔ J. Altamirano
Universidad de Chile
🔄
63'
A. Arce ↔ L. Assadi
Universidad de Chile
🟨
64'
Franco Calderón
Universidad de Chile
🟨
65'
Marcelo Morales
Universidad de Chile
🔄
72'
C. Aranguiz ↔ J. Lucero
Universidad de Chile
🟥
74'
Diego Carrasco
Concepción
84'
Eduardo Vargas · Assist: F. Hormazabal
Universidad de Chile
🟨
86'
Bianneider Tamayo
Universidad de Chile
🟨
86'
Jorge Henríquez
Concepción
🔄
89'
F. Hormazabal ↔ N. Fernandez
Universidad de Chile
🟨
90+5'
Fausto Grillo
Concepción
🔄
90+1'
M. Davila Carvajal ↔ B. Vejar
Concepción
🔄
90+1'
J. Henriquez ↔ C. Escobar
Concepción

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Universidad de Chile Win 72.8%
Draw 0%
Concepción Win 27.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universidad de Chile1.11
Concepción0.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universidad de Chile Universidad de Chile
WWDLW
11 GF / 10 GA
Concepción Concepción
WLDWL
11 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
0.85
Average Goals Scored
0.79
0.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
3
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
5
3.83
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universidad de Chile Universidad de Chile 13 matches
Concepción Concepción 14 matches
Universidad de Chile Statistic Concepción
4 Wins 3
5 Draws 2
4 Losses 9
11 Goals For 11
10 Goals Against 21
0.85 Avg Goals Scored 0.79
0.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
3 BTTS Yes 5
5 Over 1.5 10
4 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 1
7 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 6
3.83 Shots On Goal 3
11.33 Total Shots 11.92
5.67 Corners 4.62
56.2% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Universidad de Chile's more proactive style and Concepción's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Concepción. Universidad de Chile arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 17 points compared to Concepción in 16 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Concepción arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Universidad de Chile expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Concepción in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Concepción having the stronger overall control.

Universidad de Chile Analysis

Universidad de Chile are currently 8 in the standings with 17 points from 12 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 11:7 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Eduardo Vargas (2 goals), J. Altamirano (2 goals), M. G. Guerrero Pena (2 goals), with creative support from Eduardo Vargas (1 assists), M. G. Guerrero Pena (1 assists), A. Arce (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Concepción Analysis

Concepción approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 8 points from 12 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 8:19, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Larrivey (3 goals), C. Waterman (2 goals), I. S. Mesias Gonzalez (2 goals), with creative support from J. Larrivey (1 assists), C. Waterman (1 assists), A. Diaz (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Universidad de Chile won 1 times, Concepción won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Universidad de Chile's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Universidad de Chile 4-2-3-1 / Concepción 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Universidad de Chile wins 1, draws 0, Concepción wins 0

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 17 1 3 47:21 26 52
W W D W W
2 21 11 3 7 46:31 15 36
W W L W L
3 21 10 6 5 28:17 11 36
L L W W W
4 21 9 6 6 34:23 11 33
W W D W L
5 21 10 3 8 32:29 3 33
L W W L W
6 20 8 8 4 26:24 2 32
L W W D W
7 21 9 3 9 24:24 0 30
W D W W W
8 20 8 3 9 38:34 4 27
L W L W L
9 21 6 9 6 32:34 -2 27
W D W D L
10 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L D D L D
11 21 7 3 11 26:34 -8 24
L L D L W
12 20 7 3 10 29:39 -10 24
L L L L D
13 21 5 7 9 24:31 -7 22
L D D D W
14 20 6 4 10 16:34 -18 22
W L L L L
15 21 6 3 12 31:39 -8 21
W D L L W
16 21 3 5 13 17:38 -21 14
L D L L L