ECUADOR LIGA PRO
15.09.2026 00:00

Universidad Catolica vs Orense SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds 1.43
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.67
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
1.43
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.67
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.4%
1.40
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Universidad Catolica Win 88%
Draw 6%
Orense SC Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Universidad Catolica1.63
Orense SC1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
WWDLW
54 GF / 33 GA
Orense SC Orense SC
WLDWL
35 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.03
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
17
BTTS Yes
18
15
Over 2.5
17
4.87
Shots on Goal
3.76

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica 32 matches
Orense SC Orense SC 29 matches
Universidad Catolica Statistic Orense SC
14 Wins 9
9 Draws 6
9 Losses 14
54 Goals For 35
33 Goals Against 45
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.03 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
17 BTTS Yes 18
23 Over 1.5 25
15 Over 2.5 17
10 Over 3.5 5
12 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 8
4.87 Shots On Goal 3.76
14.35 Total Shots 11.17
4.48 Corners 3.97
58.3% Ball Possession 49.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Universidad Catolica's more proactive style and Orense SC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Orense SC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Orense SC. Universidad Catolica arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 45 points compared to Orense SC in 13 on 30, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Universidad Catolica Analysis

Placed 4 with 45 points from 28 outings, Universidad Catolica continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses, while the 48:26 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Fajardo (9 goals), D. Clavijo (5 goals), M. Alonso (4 goals), with creative support from M. Díaz (10 assists), J. Fajardo (3 assists), D. Clavijo (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Orense SC Analysis

With 30 points from 28 games and a place of 13, Orense SC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 14 defeats with a 31:42 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Herrera (7 goals), Sergio Vásquez (4 goals), Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyes (3 goals), with creative support from Sergio Vásquez (3 assists), Erick Zambrano (3 assists), A. Herrera (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Universidad Catolica won 8 times, Orense SC won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:11 from Universidad Catolica's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Universidad Catolica 4-2-3-1 / Orense SC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Universidad Catolica wins 8, draws 5, Orense SC wins 2

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 23 2 4 70:31 39 71
W L D W W
2 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
3 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
4 29 13 9 7 49:26 23 48
W D D W D
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 29 11 10 8 31:24 7 43
D W L W D
7 29 11 8 10 31:31 0 41
W D L W D
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L W D W L
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 29 9 6 14 35:45 -10 33
W L L L W
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 29 7 6 16 18:30 -12 27
L W L L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs