ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
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Estadio 15 de Abril

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.2%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Union Santa Fe Win 71.2%
Draw 19.8%
Lanus Win 9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Santa Fe1.23
Lanus1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe
WWDLW
30 GF / 29 GA
Lanus Lanus
WLDWL
27 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.04
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
11
BTTS Yes
8
10
Over 2.5
9
5.25
Shots on Goal
4.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 22 matches
Lanus Lanus 26 matches
Union Santa Fe Statistic Lanus
7 Wins 11
7 Draws 6
8 Losses 9
30 Goals For 27
29 Goals Against 27
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
11 BTTS Yes 8
18 Over 1.5 14
10 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 11
7 Failed To Score 10
5.25 Shots On Goal 4.13
16.15 Total Shots 12.21
5.05 Corners 4.67
49.2% Ball Possession 52.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Union Santa Fe expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Lanus in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lanus having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lanus.

Union Santa Fe Analysis

Union Santa Fe are currently 8 in the standings with 21 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 24:20 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Cristian Tarragona (2 goals), Marcelo Estigarribia (2 goals), Julián Palacios (1 goals), with creative support from Julián Palacios (3 assists), Mateo Del Blanco (1 assists), Lautaro Vargas (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Lanus Analysis

Lanus are currently 6 in the standings with 24 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 18:15 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Yoshan Valois (2 goals), with creative support from Dylan Aquino (1 assists), Lucas Besozzi (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Union Santa Fe won 6 times, Lanus won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:15 from Union Santa Fe's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91%)
Predicted formations: Union Santa Fe 4-4-2 / Lanus 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Union Santa Fe wins 6, draws 6, Lanus wins 3
Last matches: Union Santa Fe
01.08.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Gimnasia M.
0
2
L
25.07.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Platense
2
2
D
22.05.26
Cop
Union Santa Fe
Independiente
0
2
L
12.05.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Belgrano Cordoba
0
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Independ. Rivadavia
2
1
W
02.05.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Talleres Cordoba
1
1
D
27.04.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Velez Sarsfield
2
2
D
17.04.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Newells Old Boys
2
3
L
11.04.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Estudiantes L.P.
1
2
L
03.04.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Deportivo Riestra
2
0
W
31.03.26
Cop
Union Santa Fe
Agropecuario
2
0
W
21.03.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Defensa Y Justicia
0
2
L
16.03.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
10.03.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Independiente
4
4
D
01.03.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Instituto Cordoba
2
1
W
26.02.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Sarmiento Junin
3
1
W
23.02.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Aldosivi
1
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
San Lorenzo
0
0
D
07.02.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Central Cordoba de Santiago
0
1
L
03.02.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Gimnasia M.
4
0
W
Last matches: Lanus
26.07.26
Lig
Lanus
San Lorenzo
1
0
W
30.05.26
Cop
Lanus
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
26.05.26
CON
Lanus
Mirassol
1
0
W
21.05.26
CON
Lanus
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Lanus
Argentinos JRS
0
2
L
06.05.26
CON
Lanus
Always Ready
0
4
L
02.05.26
Lig
Lanus
Deportivo Riestra
0
0
D
28.04.26
CON
Lanus
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
24.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Central Cordoba de Santiago
0
0
D
21.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Gimnasia M.
0
1
L
16.04.26
CON
Lanus
Always Ready
1
0
W
13.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Banfield
1
0
W
08.04.26
CON
Lanus
Mirassol
0
1
L
01.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Platense
0
0
D
27.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Argentinos JRS
1
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Velez Sarsfield
1
0
W
17.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Newells Old Boys
5
0
W
13.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
05.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Boca Juniors
0
3
L
02.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Defensa Y Justicia
1
1
D
H2H: Union Santa Fe vs Lanus
29.01.26
H2H
Lanus
Union Santa Fe
2
1
L
13.09.24
H2H
Lanus
Union Santa Fe
1
1
D
28.03.24
H2H
Lanus
Union Santa Fe
2
2
D
05.11.23
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
0
0
D
17.06.23
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
1
1
D
03.07.22
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
3
0
W
31.07.21
H2H
Lanus
Union Santa Fe
1
1
D
01.03.21
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
3
2
W
29.12.20
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
2
0
W
25.08.19
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
1
2
L
16.03.19
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
3
0
W
13.10.17
H2H
Lanus
Union Santa Fe
2
1
L
17.08.17
H2H
Lanus
Union Santa Fe
1
2
W
17.09.16
H2H
Lanus
Union Santa Fe
0
1
W
28.02.15
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
1
1
D
Last matches: Union Santa Fe
22.05.26
Cop
Union Santa Fe
Independiente
0
2
L
02.05.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Talleres Cordoba
1
1
D
17.04.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Newells Old Boys
2
3
L
03.04.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Deportivo Riestra
2
0
W
31.03.26
Cop
Union Santa Fe
Agropecuario
2
0
W
16.03.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
23.02.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Aldosivi
1
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
San Lorenzo
0
0
D
03.02.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Gimnasia M.
4
0
W
22.01.26
Lig
Union Santa Fe
Platense
0
0
D
H2H at home: Union Santa Fe
05.11.23
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
0
0
D
17.06.23
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
1
1
D
03.07.22
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
3
0
W
01.03.21
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
3
2
W
29.12.20
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
2
0
W
25.08.19
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
1
2
L
16.03.19
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
3
0
W
28.02.15
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
1
1
D
Last matches: Lanus
30.05.26
Cop
Lanus
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
21.05.26
CON
Lanus
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Lanus
Argentinos JRS
0
2
L
06.05.26
CON
Lanus
Always Ready
0
4
L
21.04.26
Lig
Lanus
Gimnasia M.
0
1
L
08.04.26
CON
Lanus
Mirassol
0
1
L
27.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Argentinos JRS
1
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Velez Sarsfield
1
0
W
13.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
02.03.26
Lig
Lanus
Defensa Y Justicia
1
1
D
13.02.26
Lig
Lanus
Independiente
0
2
L
04.02.26
Lig
Lanus
Instituto Cordoba
2
2
D
23.01.26
Lig
Lanus
San Lorenzo
3
2
W
H2H away: Lanus
05.11.23
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
0
0
D
17.06.23
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
1
1
D
03.07.22
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
3
0
L
01.03.21
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
3
2
L
29.12.20
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
2
0
L
25.08.19
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
1
2
W
16.03.19
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
3
0
L
28.02.15
H2H
Union Santa Fe
Lanus
1
1
D

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L L W D
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
L L W W W
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
W W L D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L L L D D
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
W W L W L
6
Lanus Away
16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W L D D L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
W L L L W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L D L W D
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W L W D L
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
L W D L L
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
W L W W L
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L L L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L L D W
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
L W D D W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L W D W L
Knockout Phase