COLOMBIA PRIMERA B
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Estadio Sierra Nevada

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.6%
Odds 1.55
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.01
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.6%
1.55
BTTS Yes
62.8%
2.01
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.03
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.67
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.60
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Union Magdalena Win 83.6%
Draw 5.6%
Orsomarso Win 10.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Magdalena1.37
Orsomarso0.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
Union Magdalena Union Magdalena
WWDLW
36 GF / 21 GA
Orsomarso Orsomarso
WLDWL
14 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
0.88
0.91
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
13
BTTS Yes
5
10
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 23 matches
Orsomarso Orsomarso 16 matches
Union Magdalena Statistic Orsomarso
12 Wins 5
6 Draws 5
5 Losses 6
36 Goals For 14
21 Goals Against 17
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 0.88
0.91 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
13 BTTS Yes 5
19 Over 1.5 9
10 Over 2.5 5
5 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Union Magdalena's more proactive style and Orsomarso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Orsomarso. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Union Magdalena come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Union Magdalena arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 32 points compared to Orsomarso in 10 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Orsomarso having the stronger overall control.

Union Magdalena Analysis

Union Magdalena approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 32 points after 15 outings. The return of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 27:15, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Orsomarso Analysis

From their first 15 matches, Orsomarso have collected 17 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 13:17 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Union Magdalena won 6 times, Orsomarso won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:11 from Union Magdalena's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
H2H summary: Union Magdalena wins 6, draws 4, Orsomarso wins 2
Last matches: Union Magdalena
25.07.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Bogota FC
0
1
L
21.05.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Bogota FC
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Barranquilla
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Real Cartagena
3
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Real Cartagena
1
2
L
04.05.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Barranquilla
2
0
W
27.04.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Bogota FC
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Depor FC
3
1
W
13.04.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Internacional Palmira
0
2
L
09.04.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Envigado
4
2
W
30.03.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Ind. Yumbo
2
0
W
26.03.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Real Santander
2
0
W
23.03.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Real Cartagena
1
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Patriotas
2
1
W
11.03.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Real Soacha
1
1
D
04.03.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Barranquilla
3
1
W
28.02.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Quindio
2
1
W
24.02.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Tigres FC
3
1
W
14.02.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Leones FC
3
1
W
09.02.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Popayan
0
2
L
Last matches: Orsomarso
26.07.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Barranquilla
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Leones FC
0
0
D
13.04.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Bogota FC
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Internacional Palmira
1
2
L
27.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Quindio
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Ind. Yumbo
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Santander
2
0
W
11.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Depor FC
1
1
D
06.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Cartagena
0
4
L
01.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Envigado
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Soacha
0
1
L
18.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Popayan
2
2
D
09.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Patriotas
0
0
D
04.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Tigres FC
1
0
W
01.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Union Magdalena
0
1
L
24.01.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Barranquilla
2
1
W
25.10.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Cucuta
0
1
L
19.10.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Quindio
2
3
L
13.10.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Internacional Palmira
0
0
D
07.10.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Soacha
1
1
D
H2H: Union Magdalena vs Orsomarso
01.02.26
H2H
Orsomarso
Union Magdalena
0
1
W
06.08.24
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
3
0
W
16.02.24
H2H
Orsomarso
Union Magdalena
1
3
W
18.10.21
H2H
Orsomarso
Union Magdalena
1
2
W
06.02.21
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
1
1
D
08.08.20
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
0
0
D
24.02.20
H2H
Orsomarso
Union Magdalena
2
2
D
15.10.18
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
1
0
W
19.05.18
H2H
Orsomarso
Union Magdalena
0
0
D
09.07.17
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
1
1
D
18.02.17
H2H
Orsomarso
Union Magdalena
1
2
W
02.07.16
H2H
Orsomarso
Union Magdalena
2
1
L
14.02.16
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
0
2
L
Last matches: Union Magdalena
21.05.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Bogota FC
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Real Cartagena
3
0
W
04.05.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Barranquilla
2
0
W
13.04.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Internacional Palmira
0
2
L
09.04.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Envigado
4
2
W
26.03.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Real Santander
2
0
W
16.03.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Patriotas
2
1
W
11.03.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Real Soacha
1
1
D
24.02.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Tigres FC
3
1
W
09.02.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Popayan
0
2
L
26.01.26
Pri
Union Magdalena
Bogota FC
0
0
D
14.11.25
Pri
Union Magdalena
Fortaleza FC
2
0
W
30.10.25
Pri
Union Magdalena
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
17.10.25
Pri
Union Magdalena
Envigado
3
1
W
04.10.25
Pri
Union Magdalena
Águilas Doradas
3
2
W
21.09.25
Pri
Union Magdalena
Atletico Nacional
1
2
L
06.09.25
Pri
Union Magdalena
Junior
3
1
W
24.08.25
Pri
Union Magdalena
Alianza Valledupar
2
3
L
07.08.25
Pri
Union Magdalena
Deportivo Pasto
1
1
D
27.07.25
Pri
Union Magdalena
Independiente Medellin
0
2
L
H2H at home: Union Magdalena
06.08.24
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
3
0
W
06.02.21
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
1
1
D
08.08.20
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
0
0
D
15.10.18
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
1
0
W
09.07.17
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
1
1
D
14.02.16
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
0
2
L
Last matches: Orsomarso
13.04.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Bogota FC
0
2
L
27.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Quindio
2
2
D
11.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Depor FC
1
1
D
06.03.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Cartagena
0
4
L
22.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Soacha
0
1
L
18.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Popayan
2
2
D
04.02.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Tigres FC
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pri
Orsomarso
Barranquilla
2
1
W
25.10.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Cucuta
0
1
L
07.10.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Soacha
1
1
D
21.09.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Cartagena
1
3
L
06.09.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Internacional Palmira
1
1
D
30.08.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Depor FC
0
1
L
19.08.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Barranquilla
2
0
W
02.08.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Tigres FC
0
2
L
19.07.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Leones FC
1
0
W
13.05.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Quindio
0
0
D
04.05.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Internacional Palmira
1
1
D
23.04.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Popayan
1
0
W
06.04.25
Pri
Orsomarso
Real Santander
0
0
D
H2H away: Orsomarso
06.08.24
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
3
0
L
06.02.21
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
1
1
D
08.08.20
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
0
0
D
15.10.18
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
1
0
L
09.07.17
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
1
1
D
14.02.16
H2H
Union Magdalena
Orsomarso
0
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.89
Draw 3.71
Home 1.55
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 1.75 1.40
Over 2.0 1.53
Over 2.25 1.80
Over 2.5 2.03
Over 2.75 2.33
Over 3.0 2.91
Under 1.5 3.12
Under 1.75 2.76
Under 2.0 2.41
Under 2.25 1.99
Under 2.5 1.74
Under 2.75 1.55
Under 3.0 1.37
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 3.90
Home 1.53
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 2.10
Home 2.20
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.5 2.30
Under 2.5 1.60
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.89
Draw 3.20
Home 1.72
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.83
Draw 1.93
Home 2.41
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.98
Draw 2.35
Home 2.09
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 0.75 1.04
Over 1.0 1.06
Over 1.25 1.20
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 1.75 1.43
Over 2.0 1.59
Over 2.25 1.88
Over 2.5 2.16
Over 2.75 2.46
Over 3.0 3.08
Over 3.25 3.50
Over 3.5 3.86
Over 3.75 4.94
Over 4.0 7.20
Over 4.25 7.55
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 21.00
Under 0.5 7.60
Under 0.75 6.90
Under 1.0 6.20
Under 1.25 3.72
Under 1.5 2.81
Under 1.75 2.46
Under 2.0 2.10
Under 2.25 1.82
Under 2.5 1.62
Under 2.75 1.43
Under 3.0 1.28
Under 3.25 1.22
Under 3.5 1.18
Under 3.75 1.11
Under 4.0 1.03
Under 4.25 1.03
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 12 2 1 29:13 16 38
W W W W W
2 17 10 3 4 28:17 11 33
D W W W L
3 15 10 2 3 27:15 12 32
W L W W W
4 15 9 4 2 20:10 10 31
W W L D W
5 17 7 6 4 26:19 7 27
D L L L W
6 15 6 5 4 16:14 2 23
W W D W L
7 15 6 2 7 21:20 1 20
W L W L W
8 15 5 5 5 15:14 1 20
L W W L D
9 15 4 7 4 13:14 -1 19
D D L W L
10 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
D L L D W
11 15 4 5 6 13:17 -4 17
L W W L D
12 15 2 7 6 15:20 -5 13
L D D D D
13 15 2 7 6 14:19 -5 13
D L D L D
14 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
D W L L L
15 15 1 6 8 12:23 -11 9
L L L D W
16 15 1 4 10 9:23 -14 7
L L L L L